Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian has a winter storm across north TX early next week.

GFS actually looks pretty similar.

Looks like some STJ and cold funneled by the parent HP as the air is settled in from the weekend.

Yeah this set up would be nice if it verified.

The pattern just keeps reloading like you've mentioned. It's almost the exact opposite of the past few winters. Instead of the cold always being 2 weeks away, now it's the warmth.

[orangeblood]

0z Canadian has a winter storm across north TX early next week.

GFS actually looks pretty similar.

Looks like some STJ and cold funneled by the parent HP as the air is settled in from the weekend.

Figuring out the noise upstream in the Northeast Pacific is key...keep the PNA more towards neutral and we should have something decent to discuss this week. Don't want to get too greedy but we'll really have something to discuss if that S/W continues digging southwest

[Ntxw]

0z Canadian has a winter storm across north TX early next week.

GFS actually looks pretty similar.

Very similar to the Analog I mentioned earlier today...New Years Eve 2000. GFS coming around to it as well

Nice call on the analog. It does look like it. Regardless if it happens or not, we have a lot of winter to look at the next week to week and a half. Warms ups pushed back again.

[Ntxw]

Another arctic high building in Canada mid to late next week

[South Texas Storms]

Wxman did promise yall some snow this year. Maybe next week north TX will get some.

I wouldn't mind another snow event here in south TX though.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:
Wxman did promise yall some snow this year. Maybe next week north TX will get some.

I wouldn't mind another snow event here in south TX though.

If that S/W can dig more towards El Paso, that's how you could get a more widespread event maybe even down your way

[orangeblood]

Another arctic high building in Canada mid to late next week

PV coming to pay a visit into the lower 48

[Ntxw]

GFS basically has DFW in the 30s and 40s all of next week. While this may not seem ungodly cold, this is suppose to be what everyone says should be a major "thaw"

Inkling may turn out to be right. Models just did not grasp the magnitude of the real cold up in Canada

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
Wxman did promise yall some snow this year. Maybe next week north TX will get some.

I wouldn't mind another snow event here in south TX though.

If that S/W can dig more towards El Paso, that's how you could get a more widespread event maybe even down your way

That would be the ideal solution for sure. I like the trends in the 0z models tonight though. Curious to see what the Euro shows in a few hours.

[Texas Snowman]

Y’all know you’re going to get Wxman57 all stirred up in the morning!

If he’s going back to his old Heat Miser ways, quite a rebuttal is forthcoming from Houston!

[Brent]

0z Canadian has a winter storm across north TX early next week.

GFS actually looks pretty similar.

hey I'll be back by then!

[hamburgerman7070]

MJO is key here. Its rolling through 2 and 3, not a favorable phase for us. After that, i think we get back to a more favorable pattern.

Phases 2 and 3 are cold phases and mjo has been meandering in 2.

[Brent]

0z Euro appears to be a cold rain next Monday/Tuesday

meanwhile Chicago gets buried with a blizzard again on the day I'm supposed to leave. But its even worse to the east where feet of snow is projected...

[wxman57]

I fear Wxman57 is slipping back towards his alter ego (Heat Miser).

The one who trusts medium and long range model forecasts when they predict warmth.

And the same one who doesn’t trust medium and long range model forecasts when they predict cold and snow.

Sorry, even though I now love the cold and snow, I can't be a wishcaster. I see things as they are, not as I'd like them to be. Looking beyond this week, that's an interesting setup next Tuesday in the 00Z GFS and CMC. Snow and ice across NE TX at 192 hrs. Euro says no short wave, though. Wouldn't rule it out yet (25% chance). Still trying to get the DFW area some snow.

Long-range EC ensembles cool things down from the Rockies west to the west coast and through western Canada beyond the 20th. Round 2 of winter begins by the end of this month.

[Cpv17]

I fear Wxman57 is slipping back towards his alter ego (Heat Miser).

The one who trusts medium and long range model forecasts when they predict warmth.

And the same one who doesn’t trust medium and long range model forecasts when they predict cold and snow.

Sorry, even though I now love the cold and snow, I can't be a wonderful forecaster. I see things as they are, not as I'd like them to be. Looking beyond this week, that's an interesting setup next Tuesday in the 00Z GFS and CMC. Snow and ice across NE TX at 192 hrs. Euro says no short wave, though. Wouldn't rule it out yet (25% chance). Still trying to get the DFW area some snow.

Long-range EC ensembles cool things down from the Rockies west to the west coast and through western Canada beyond the 20th. Round 2 of winter begins by the end of this month.

Do you think if another Artic intrusion comes in that there will be a better snowpack this time around to allow less moderation of the air?

[Ntxw]

Euro has the event early next week, but a bit warmer than GFS and CMC.

Still seeing signs of Aleutian ridge loading W Can after the 20th. Might be unleashed on the Plains and Rockies

[orangeblood]

MJO is key here. Its rolling through 2 and 3, not a favorable phase for us. After that, i think we get back to a more favorable pattern.

Phases 2 and 3 are cold phases and mjo has been meandering in 2.

Yeah, the MJO has almost completely stalled out in Phase 2, completely defying all of the model guidance. This partially explains why they were so off in forecasting a big thaw, they don't have a clue how this MJO is propagating. The good news is that Phase 2, this time of year, is the most favorable for widespread cold across the US but big warmups typically ensue as you move into Phase 3/4

[Ntxw]

For the third day in a row SOI is double digit negative at -10

[orangeblood]

For the third day in a row SOI is double digit negative at -10

Really interesting, we should be approaching El Nino base state 30 day average territory shouldn't we ?

[Ntxw]

For the third day in a row SOI is double digit negative at -10

Really interesting, we should be approaching El Nino base state 30 day average territory shouldn't we ?

We should be. Its been predominantly negative this winter so far against the Nina base state. So when we see P3/4 this needs to be considered there is a mixed signal

It's like we are getting a cold Canada in a Nina background base state, but Nino like delivery from the Pacific side. Some years the delivery doesn't happen and cold is always bottled up north and we are zonal like 2011-2012