Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7481 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:45 am

orangeblood wrote:Something else I noticed on the 0Z GFS run....a 585 DM Ridge into Alaska, that is Dec 1983 level

Pretty McFarland esque.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7482 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:03 am

GEFS beyond this weekend is -EPO, +PNA with dominating PV anomaly over Hudson Bay. This is a clear cold east of the Rockies pattern. This also does not leave much room for storms to develop sadly. Will again have to rely on NW flow clippers to find some moisture. If the +PNA could relax for a moment during this maybe we could get a storm, but it would likely again favor South Texas and the Gulf Coast.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7483 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:56 am

Lots of dry cold on GFS with some close misses of storms..north or east of course
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7484 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:26 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:GEFS beyond this weekend is -EPO, +PNA with dominating PV anomaly over Hudson Bay. This is a clear cold east of the Rockies pattern. This also does not leave much room for storms to develop sadly. Will again have to rely on NW flow clippers to find some moisture. If the +PNA could relax for a moment during this maybe we could get a storm, but it would likely again favor South Texas and the Gulf Coast.


Agree!
1 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7485 Postby Haris » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:41 pm

Has anyone looked at the 12z GEFS!? It has mid 20s for TX in 2 weeks . FAR OUT but impressive since I haven’t seen ensembles that cold this far out . Not much precip . I think winter precip favored areas are E and S TX. Just my opinion. Not a official forecast of course
0 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7486 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:59 pm

Haris wrote:Has anyone looked at the 12z GEFS!? It has mid 20s for TX in 2 weeks . FAR OUT but impressive since I haven’t seen ensembles that cold this far out . Not much precip . I think winter precip favored areas are E and S TX. Just my opinion. Not a official forecast of course


One of the coldest long range ENS Mean forecasts I've seen...for a mean to have 20 to 30 Deg F below normal over a 5 day stretch is phenomenal. Very strong Arctic HP's plus several members think there's widespread snowcover

Image
1 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7487 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:39 pm

Umm, the most extreme 12Z GEFS member is showing lows on the 12th way below 0 (-20s in NE TX) with even some sub 0 highs. Lets hope we can toss out that possibility, but mean lows around 20 for days 10-16 is still crazy. Thursday morning is the only morning in the 16 day run with a mean low over 39. Wish there was more precip showing up, but that's life with persistent cold NW flow.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7488 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:11 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Umm, the most extreme 12Z GEFS member is showing lows on the 12th way below 0 (-20s in NE TX) with even some sub 0 highs. Lets hope we can toss out that possibility, but mean lows around 20 for days 10-16 is still crazy. Thursday morning is the only morning in the 16 day run with a mean low over 39. Wish there was more precip showing up, but that's life with persistent cold NW flow.


There is a lot of precip showing up...has mean snowfall totals of 3-4 inches across a wide area of the state. Every member on this run has wintry precip somewhere across the eastern half of the state
1 likes   

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7489 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:29 pm

Pretty wild Winter weather in Texas towards the end of the GFS standalone member. QPF not bad for this time of year.

Image
Image
Image
Image
1 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4991
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7490 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:30 pm

That looks like the cold could be centered right down the plains and into TX. Will there be any ridging on the east coast?
0 likes   

User avatar
Haris
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1810
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7491 Postby Haris » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:35 pm

Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying
0 likes   
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4991
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7492 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:41 pm

Haris wrote:Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying


Yeah, you’re telling me. That’s why people are going to be hesitant about this potential cold snap.
1 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7493 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:45 pm

Haris wrote:Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying

GEFS, EPS and GEPS are all pretty similar at day 10.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

stormlover2013

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7494 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:54 pm

10 days away it will change about 30 more times...only consistency we had with models have been 1 to 2 days out or they flip flop 24/7 lol
0 likes   

aggiecutter
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: Texarkana

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7495 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:14 pm

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
amawea
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 385
Age: 73
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 3:36 pm
Location: Horseshoe Bend, Ar. but from Baytown, Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7496 Postby amawea » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:16 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:10 days away it will change about 30 more times...only consistency we had with models have been 1 to 2 days out or they flip flop 24/7 lol


Yep, these models are like the movie ground hog day. The same thing over and over. Brutal cold, or winter storm 10 to 15 days out, then poof, it's gone 3 or 4 days out.
0 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7497 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:19 pm

Everything see as of this afternoon does not change my thinking when considering what our sensible weather may bring around February 7th into mid February. I see a Big spinning Upper Low (Polar Vortex) parked near Hudson Bay with spokes or waves of Arctic Air spilling across the Arctic into Canada and the Lower 48 throughout February. Think of that Upper Low near Hudson Bay as the Hub of a big wagon wheel and the spokes as shots of cold air with each spoke or wave becoming deeper and stronger in their push to the S, particularly after this weekend. Each successive cold front appears to penetrate further into Texas and eventually Louisiana near Valentine's Day. The initial shots or waves of cold air may be moisture starved, but as time progresses, the amplified MJO and associated Kelvin Wave creeps closer to the United States and Mexico. This is where I see the potential of Eastern Pacific mischief in the form of a Baja Upper low with disturbances embedded in both the sub tropical jet streaming across Mexico and Texas as well as the NW flow aloft. There are growing indications of NW Gulf coastal low/trough activity as we move deeper into February. That seems reasonable with all the teleconnection indices, MJO and Kelvin Wave forecasts as of today. I will add that this is a highly volatile upper air pattern across the Northern Hemisphere due the unusually strong Upper Ridge (Rex Block) across the N Pacific/Bering Sea/Siberia. This may be one of the strongest Upper Ridges we have seen since the 80's. They are highly unusual, but have happen in the past. Keep in mind this is the best reasonable outlook beyond 5 days that anyone can expect. Those "finer details" will certainly need adjustment as the days ahead unfold.
6 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7498 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:24 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Haris wrote:Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying


Yeah, you’re telling me. That’s why people are going to be hesitant about this potential cold snap.


Both handle the Bering ridge differently. The model(s) runs that are cold and storm, moves the ridge towards Alaska while the other (Euro) retros it to Russia. MJO in part will likely direct this somewhat. Which is why worth mentioning the Euro's recent problem.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
wxman22
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1496
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7499 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:25 pm

Doesn't mean that much because it's so far out, but it is interesting that a lot of the GFS ensemble members show a winter storm around the same time as the operational run.
1 likes   

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7500 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:48 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Haris wrote:Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying

GEFS, EPS and GEPS are all pretty similar at day 10.


Yes they are and you can see the trend on the EPS towards the GEFS...picking if/when winter storm dates will occur is one thing but the GEFS and GEPS has been really good at picking out the cold signals in the 10-15 day range. This is a very very good cold signal for Feb 10-15th
1 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 391 guests