Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ralph's Weather]

Something else I noticed on the 0Z GFS run....a 585 DM Ridge into Alaska, that is Dec 1983 level

Pretty McFarland esque.

[Ralph's Weather]

GEFS beyond this weekend is -EPO, +PNA with dominating PV anomaly over Hudson Bay. This is a clear cold east of the Rockies pattern. This also does not leave much room for storms to develop sadly. Will again have to rely on NW flow clippers to find some moisture. If the +PNA could relax for a moment during this maybe we could get a storm, but it would likely again favor South Texas and the Gulf Coast.

[Ntxw]

Lots of dry cold on GFS with some close misses of storms..north or east of course

[northjaxpro]

GEFS beyond this weekend is -EPO, +PNA with dominating PV anomaly over Hudson Bay. This is a clear cold east of the Rockies pattern. This also does not leave much room for storms to develop sadly. Will again have to rely on NW flow clippers to find some moisture. If the +PNA could relax for a moment during this maybe we could get a storm, but it would likely again favor South Texas and the Gulf Coast.

Agree!

[Haris]

Has anyone looked at the 12z GEFS!? It has mid 20s for TX in 2 weeks . FAR OUT but impressive since I haven’t seen ensembles that cold this far out . Not much precip . I think winter precip favored areas are E and S TX. Just my opinion. Not a official forecast of course

[orangeblood]

Has anyone looked at the 12z GEFS!? It has mid 20s for TX in 2 weeks . FAR OUT but impressive since I haven’t seen ensembles that cold this far out . Not much precip . I think winter precip favored areas are E and S TX. Just my opinion. Not a official forecast of course

One of the coldest long range ENS Mean forecasts I've seen...for a mean to have 20 to 30 Deg F below normal over a 5 day stretch is phenomenal. Very strong Arctic HP's plus several members think there's widespread snowcover

[Ralph's Weather]

Umm, the most extreme 12Z GEFS member is showing lows on the 12th way below 0 (-20s in NE TX) with even some sub 0 highs. Lets hope we can toss out that possibility, but mean lows around 20 for days 10-16 is still crazy. Thursday morning is the only morning in the 16 day run with a mean low over 39. Wish there was more precip showing up, but that's life with persistent cold NW flow.

[orangeblood]

Umm, the most extreme 12Z GEFS member is showing lows on the 12th way below 0 (-20s in NE TX) with even some sub 0 highs. Lets hope we can toss out that possibility, but mean lows around 20 for days 10-16 is still crazy. Thursday morning is the only morning in the 16 day run with a mean low over 39. Wish there was more precip showing up, but that's life with persistent cold NW flow.

There is a lot of precip showing up...has mean snowfall totals of 3-4 inches across a wide area of the state. Every member on this run has wintry precip somewhere across the eastern half of the state

[weatherdude1108]

Pretty wild Winter weather in Texas towards the end of the GFS standalone member. QPF not bad for this time of year.

[Cpv17]

That looks like the cold could be centered right down the plains and into TX. Will there be any ridging on the east coast?

[Haris]

Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying

[Cpv17]

Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying

Yeah, you’re telling me. That’s why people are going to be hesitant about this potential cold snap.

[Ralph's Weather]

Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying

GEFS, EPS and GEPS are all pretty similar at day 10.

[stormlover2013]

10 days away it will change about 30 more times...only consistency we had with models have been 1 to 2 days out or they flip flop 24/7 lol

[aggiecutter]

[amawea]

10 days away it will change about 30 more times...only consistency we had with models have been 1 to 2 days out or they flip flop 24/7 lol

Yep, these models are like the movie ground hog day. The same thing over and over. Brutal cold, or winter storm 10 to 15 days out, then poof, it's gone 3 or 4 days out.

[srainhoutx]

Everything see as of this afternoon does not change my thinking when considering what our sensible weather may bring around February 7th into mid February. I see a Big spinning Upper Low (Polar Vortex) parked near Hudson Bay with spokes or waves of Arctic Air spilling across the Arctic into Canada and the Lower 48 throughout February. Think of that Upper Low near Hudson Bay as the Hub of a big wagon wheel and the spokes as shots of cold air with each spoke or wave becoming deeper and stronger in their push to the S, particularly after this weekend. Each successive cold front appears to penetrate further into Texas and eventually Louisiana near Valentine's Day. The initial shots or waves of cold air may be moisture starved, but as time progresses, the amplified MJO and associated Kelvin Wave creeps closer to the United States and Mexico. This is where I see the potential of Eastern Pacific mischief in the form of a Baja Upper low with disturbances embedded in both the sub tropical jet streaming across Mexico and Texas as well as the NW flow aloft. There are growing indications of NW Gulf coastal low/trough activity as we move deeper into February. That seems reasonable with all the teleconnection indices, MJO and Kelvin Wave forecasts as of today. I will add that this is a highly volatile upper air pattern across the Northern Hemisphere due the unusually strong Upper Ridge (Rex Block) across the N Pacific/Bering Sea/Siberia. This may be one of the strongest Upper Ridges we have seen since the 80's. They are highly unusual, but have happen in the past. Keep in mind this is the best reasonable outlook beyond 5 days that anyone can expect. Those "finer details" will certainly need adjustment as the days ahead unfold.

[Ntxw]

Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying

Yeah, you’re telling me. That’s why people are going to be hesitant about this potential cold snap.

Both handle the Bering ridge differently. The model(s) runs that are cold and storm, moves the ridge towards Alaska while the other (Euro) retros it to Russia. MJO in part will likely direct this somewhat. Which is why worth mentioning the Euro's recent problem.

[wxman22]

Doesn't mean that much because it's so far out, but it is interesting that a lot of the GFS ensemble members show a winter storm around the same time as the operational run.

[orangeblood]

Euro 100% opposite of gfs and GEFS still ! This is so annoying

GEFS, EPS and GEPS are all pretty similar at day 10.

Yes they are and you can see the trend on the EPS towards the GEFS...picking if/when winter storm dates will occur is one thing but the GEFS and GEPS has been really good at picking out the cold signals in the 10-15 day range. This is a very very good cold signal for Feb 10-15th