Our 1st winter wx MCD for FWD of the winter?

Mesoscale Discussion 0052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CST Tue Feb 06 2018
Areas affected...Portions of North Texas and southern Oklahoma
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 062337Z - 070330Z
SUMMARY...Pockets of freezing rain and sleet/small hail will move
northeast from areas just north of DFW to southern Oklahoma over the
next several hours. Freezing rain rates of a few hundredths of an
inch per hour are possible.
DISCUSSION...Recent KFWS (Ft Worth WSR-88D) data show a relatively
quick blossoming of heavier convective cores this evening, generally
centered over Denton County. Lightning has been observed recently as
well. Warm-air advection around 850-700mb and related isentropic
ascent are likely encouraging this evolution, and forecast soundings
depict elevated buoyancy favorable for continued convective growth.
Meanwhile, surface wet-bulb temperatures north of the Metroplex are
near/below freezing. In turn, these convective elements will be
capable of brief bursts of freezing rain, occasionally mixing with
sleet and even small hail (considering steep 700-500mb lapse rates),
over the next several hours. Recent mPing and dual-polarization
(primarily ZDR) data suggest a mixture of freezing rain and small
hail/sleet is likely occurring in heavier cores, and freezing rain
rates of a few hundredths of an inch per hour will be possible. This
activity is expected to lift northeast towards southeastern Oklahoma
through mid evening.
..Picca.. 02/06/2018
...Please see
www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.