Texas Winter 2017-2018

[gpsnowman]

Temps have risen 4 deg F in FTW, now at 36...hmmmm

Very odd. The mist surely isn't heavy enough to drag down warmer air, is it? We can't catch a break around here.

[orangeblood]

NAM has abandoned almost any measurable qpf across North Texas....another bust appears likely

[orangeblood]

Temps have risen 4 deg F in FTW, now at 36...hmmmm

Very odd. The mist surely isn't heavy enough to drag down warmer air, is it? We can't catch a break around here.

I believe this was forecast on the models somewhat...cold advection should pick up again in a few hours

[gboudx]

NAM has abandoned almost any measurable qpf across North Texas....another bust appears likely

Mother Nature does not like the proactive approach of roads being pretreated and WWAs hoisted. She prefers to catch DFW off guard with NWS playing catch up.

[bubba hotep]

NAM has abandoned almost any measurable qpf across North Texas....another bust appears likely

21z SREF is basically zero, down from 0.25" yesterday... HRRR & HRRRx have also thrown in the towel.

[downsouthman1]

NAM has abandoned almost any measurable qpf across North Texas....another bust appears likely

21z SREF is basically zero, down from 0.25" yesterday... HRRR & HRRRx have also thrown in the towel.

Is anywhere in Texas still a target area?

[Cerlin]

We've got to have set a record number of busts this year for DFW. I can't do anything but laugh anymore

[Brent]

We've got to have set a record number of busts this year for DFW. I can't do anything but laugh anymore

Might as well not even waste time on next weekend's threat i mean itll probably bust too if it doesnt vanish beforehand

[Ntxw]

Shall we shut down the thread and lock it then? Why post right?

[Ntxw]

All joking aside,

I do encourage discussion for next week. DO NOT let busts deter posters from thoughts. Next weather event has nothing to do with this weather event as the atmosphere is fluid. I do suggest toning that language down a bit we do need to keep the thread going forward.

[SGJ]

We've got to have set a record number of busts this year for DFW. I can't do anything but laugh anymore

I do have a question.

When my friends and family in Ohio have a Winter Weather Advisory issued, they are pretty much assured that a Winter Weather event is on the way - they take it seriously and they have a reason to. I don't think I've ever heard of a "bust" happening there after a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

Why do we have "busts" here, even after getting a Winter Weather Advisory issued?

[Quixotic]

Drizzle is usually at the lower level and often reflective of surface temps. Rain falling through a warm nose is likely to produce latent heat release.

Here in Frisco it’s been a steady albeit slow fall. We are at 27 with drizzle. Should anything form between now and noon, I have high hopes. Not WSW hopes but tricky travel sleet coating hopes.

The 2013 December event was written about by Dennis Cavanaugh. It was a brilliant piece on how the expected heat release from freezing rain didn’t occur due to “supercooled droplets”. It did the reverse: instead of warming the surface it cooled it, eventually resulting in sleet, rather than cold rain. God I miss him.

[OKMet83]

Well said! I have noticed some "WX Pages" declaring that Winter is virtually over after this weekend across OK/TX... That is simply a foolish judgment based on PAST events of this winter. NO two events are exactly alike! Our forecast outside 5 days at the moment is as clear as mud.... Next weekend must be watched VERY,VERY closely! Some of the more Sig ice events have followed big temp swings like we will see mid-week. Hang tight folks it's not over yet!

All joking aside,

I do encourage discussion for next week. DO NOT let busts deter posters from thoughts. Next weather event has nothing to do with this weather event as the atmosphere is fluid. I do suggest toning that language down a bit we do need to keep the thread going forward.

[OKMet83]

It's also worth noting that the 12Z run yesterday maybe the 18z I cannot remember which HAD the same ICE STORM that today's 12Z Euro showed just a tad further north ..... So we have BOTH models at different times showing a sig ice storm around next weekend...

[Brent]

We've got to have set a record number of busts this year for DFW. I can't do anything but laugh anymore

I do have a question.

When my friends and family in Ohio have a Winter Weather Advisory issued, they are pretty much assured that a Winter Weather event is on the way - they take it seriously and they have a reason to. I don't think I've ever heard of a "bust" happening there after a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

Why do we have "busts" here, even after getting a Winter Weather Advisory issued?

I think a lot of it is in the south everything has to be perfect to get frozen precip here, up north you usually already have some ingredients and its just a matter of when

I grew up in Alabama(and lived there til 2014), and I remember many busts on either end of the spectrum there too... both from snow to nothing happening to nothing happening or some minor event to some of the biggest snows I saw over there, and every storm over there always had a surprise somewhere(far more or less snow than forecast) even in the storms that verified.

so I think its just a southern thing... it literally has to be perfect here.

let's also remember there wouldnt be a WWA for such a borderline event as this in Ohio... their criteria is higher and more of a done deal type thing

I see we were adding the same comments at the same time

[Ntxw]

To add to the post above, advisory criteria is different here vs Ohio. What is an advisory there is winter storm warning worthy here. Even the slightest amount of ice or drizzle can trigger with very little qpf an advisory in the south. While up north that just gives you a special weather statement

[Texas Snowman]

I understand being disappointed when winter weather doesn’t materialize. Been there and lived that for many years. And the ability to tune into model runs heightens all of that disappointment I suppose (gets our hopes up).

But having lived here since I was a kid in the late 1970s, I sometimes feel that we aren’t very realistic here.

We live in the southernmost state in the Great Plains and our southern border is Mexico. The truth is that just about anywhere outside of the Pahandle, snowfall is a real rarity. It just doesn’t happen very often.

Harold Taft, the late great weatherman for KXAS in Fort Worth, once was asked by a news anchor why everyone else in town was forecasting snow and he wasn’t. He responded that he had learned over the years that it was extremely difficult to get conditions just right for significant snowfall in North Texas. Because of that, he had learned that about the only time you should forecast snow in this area was when you looked out the window and saw that it was snowing.

It will snow here again. It will snow big here again. And one winter we will have multiple snowfalls here in North Texas. Just don’t expect those kinds of things to happen frequently.

[SGJ]

Too add to the post above, advisory criteria is different here vs Ohio. What is an advisory there is winter storm warning worthy here. Even the slightest amount of ice or drizzle can trigger with very little qpf an advisory in the south. While up north that just gives you a special weather statement

Thanks to you both!

I had no idea - I assumed the criteria would be the same, regardless of the locality.

Knowing this is helpful. I've lived on both coasts and in Ohio. I've never seen any goofier weather situations than here in DFW. Literally, we can have a forecast showing 1" of snow and end up with a foot. OR we can have a winter like this one, where we have our hopes dashed week after week. I try to remain positive each time. I keep thinking that for every bust, our chances go up that something will verify. At least I keep telling myself that!

[Brent]

Too add to the post above, advisory criteria is different here vs Ohio. What is an advisory there is winter storm warning worthy here. Even the slightest amount of ice or drizzle can trigger with very little qpf an advisory in the south. While up north that just gives you a special weather statement

Thanks to you both!

I had no idea - I assumed the criteria would be the same, regardless of the locality.

Knowing this is helpful. I've lived on both coasts and in Ohio. I've never seen any goofier weather situations than here in DFW. Literally, we can have a forecast showing 1" of snow and end up with a foot. OR we can have a winter like this one, where we have our hopes dashed week after week. I try to remain positive each time. I keep thinking that for every bust, our chances go up that something will verify. At least I keep telling myself that!

I will agree Texas weather is a lot different in general than I used to see... it rains a lot less here than it does further east, and sometimes even rain doesnt verify!!! In most of the SE it was almost guaranteed heavy rain lol

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I understand being disappointed when winter weather doesn’t materialize. Been there and lived that for many years. And the ability to tune into model runs heightens all of that disappointment I suppose (gets our hopes up).

But having lived here since I was a kid in the late 1970s, I sometimes feel that we aren’t very realistic here.

We live in the southernmost state in the Great Plains and our southern border is Mexico. The truth is that just about anywhere outside of the Pahandle, snowfall is a real rarity. It just doesn’t happen very often.

Harold Taft, the late great weatherman for KXAS in Fort Worth, once was asked by a news anchor why everyone else in town was forecasting snow and he wasn’t. He responded that he had learned over the years that it was extremely difficult to get conditions just right for significant snowfall in North Texas. Because of that, he had learned that about the only time you should forecast snow in this area was when you looked out the window and saw that it was snowing.

It will snow here again. It will snow big here again. And one winter we will have multiple snowfalls here in North Texas. Just don’t expect those kinds of things to happen frequently.

Thank You Texas Snowman, I don't usually say much but visit the forum often. My practice is not to take it seriously unless Wxman 57 says it is going to happen. He's been very quiet:) As I stated earlier, NWS hasn't wavered much on this storm, so disappointment is only on living and dying by the models, they're called guidance for a reason. Too much -removed- going on in the forum of late.