![Image](https://i.imgur.com/JrgIcZZ.gif)
Also worth noting how low it is starting. 96W is below 5ºN right now. Once it starts cranking, it'll have clear implications on the equatorial winds.
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Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:Ntxw wrote:Besides the cooler air over North America, ENSO implications perhaps if real?
[twee]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/976810701284167680[/twee]
Could jumpstart a WWB to kill off or severely weaken Niña
That potential WWB would surely act as a reinforcement if this present WWB doesn't finish the job.
[Saving space]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/976465350266179584[/twee]
The January downwelling Kelvin Wave now looks inferior to the present downwelling Kelvin Wave due to the ongoing WWB -- but I would like to see anomalies a bit further east and over the dateline.
[img ]https://i.imgur.com/t06wuQM.gif[/img]
A WWB can trigger TC's, so that's likely why the EPS is bullish on a WPAC TC. We're seeing a chain reaction here.
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
Not sure if I remember correctly, but I recall a discussion on here a couple of years ago that a Typhoon helped trigger a massive WWB that in turn triggered the 97 Super Nino?
NotSparta wrote:
I can't locate it now, but I remember hearing in 2015 there was a tc in the WPAC and SH at the same time that caused a huge WWB
Shell Mound wrote:https://imgur.com/pDXGzGJ
Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.
DANKENGINE420 wrote::)Shell Mound wrote:https://imgur.com/pDXGzGJ
Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.
this is also why i think the el nino-like conditions will quickly swallow up the atlantic during peak time of the hurricane season. it will come quicker than y'all can think. remember 2006?
CyclonicFury wrote:Last year I don’t think anyone expected a transition to La Niña by the fall. SPB makes forecasts challenging, and we can’t just assume that the 2018 AHS will be any ENSO state.
Kingarabian wrote:Latest subsurface frame shows +4C anomalies returning at the depth:
https://i.imgur.com/vzI8NlS.gif
The CFS V2 operational has reversed its La Nina stance and continues to move up, beginning to cross into neutral range. Most of its latest members are well into El Nino range.
https://i.imgur.com/xA5grKp.gif
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