ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
WPac TC is probably for real. We already have a well developed disturbance 96W moving into favorable conditions and across the board model support.
Also worth noting how low it is starting. 96W is below 5ºN right now. Once it starts cranking, it'll have clear implications on the equatorial winds.
Also worth noting how low it is starting. 96W is below 5ºN right now. Once it starts cranking, it'll have clear implications on the equatorial winds.
5 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Not sure if I remember correctly, but I recall a discussion on here a couple of years ago that a Typhoon helped trigger a massive WWB that in turn triggered the 97 Super Nino?
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
That would be Super Typhoon Isa, although Isa developed further east than 96W will.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: ENSO Updates
Dr Jeff Masters from wunderground suggested SuperTyphoon Haiyan kicked off a nino.
Cant locate the blog now. But i do recall reading it.
Cant locate the blog now. But i do recall reading it.
0 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:Ntxw wrote:Besides the cooler air over North America, ENSO implications perhaps if real?
[twee]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/976810701284167680[/twee]
Could jumpstart a WWB to kill off or severely weaken Niña
That potential WWB would surely act as a reinforcement if this present WWB doesn't finish the job.
[Saving space]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/976465350266179584[/twee]
The January downwelling Kelvin Wave now looks inferior to the present downwelling Kelvin Wave due to the ongoing WWB -- but I would like to see anomalies a bit further east and over the dateline.
[img ]https://i.imgur.com/t06wuQM.gif[/img]
A WWB can trigger TC's, so that's likely why the EPS is bullish on a WPAC TC. We're seeing a chain reaction here.
I'm new to this but if the WWB or future ones stay that far west all I can really see is a Modoki El Niño.
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:
Not sure if I remember correctly, but I recall a discussion on here a couple of years ago that a Typhoon helped trigger a massive WWB that in turn triggered the 97 Super Nino?
I can't locate it now, but I remember hearing in 2015 there was a tc in the WPAC and SH at the same time that caused a huge WWB
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
That was Tropical Cyclone Pam in the SPac.
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: ENSO Updates
NotSparta wrote:
I can't locate it now, but I remember hearing in 2015 there was a tc in the WPAC and SH at the same time that caused a huge WWB
I think you're talking about the 2014 episode. There was a huge cloud cluster in the equator around April that separated into Peipah and Ita, the latter becoming a Cat5-equivalent cyclone which contributed to massive WWB.
If I'm not mistaken, El Nino conditions were already prevalent this time of the year in 2015 that's why there were already two pre-April super typhoons then (Higos and Maysak).
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
We probably need to step back a bit about the cause and effect of a tropical cyclone and WWB. The two are fluid. A tropical cyclone isn't the causation of a WWB. They form because it is conducive, in which atmospheric conditions (such as an occurring WWB) create a favorable environment. The two together is often a signal things are swinging one way vs another.
So the fact that there may be a TC of relative latitude while there is an occurring WWB is likely to feedback on each other.
So yes 2015 had a lot of TC activity early in the year in the Pacific, but the Pacific was already in an El Nino state from 2014.
So the fact that there may be a TC of relative latitude while there is an occurring WWB is likely to feedback on each other.
So yes 2015 had a lot of TC activity early in the year in the Pacific, but the Pacific was already in an El Nino state from 2014.
4 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Latest subsurface frame shows +4C anomalies returning at the depth:
The CFS V2 operational has reversed its La Nina stance and continues to move up, beginning to cross into neutral range. Most of its latest members are well into El Nino range.
The CFS V2 operational has reversed its La Nina stance and continues to move up, beginning to cross into neutral range. Most of its latest members are well into El Nino range.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- DANKENGINE420
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 51
- Age: 26
- Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:14 pm
- Location: nsw, au
Re: ENSO Updates
to be honest i still think el nino will come when you lot have autumn and should end when the 2019 atlantic hurricane season comes about (albeit a very weak one)
0 likes
♥ lane ♥ 20 ♥ she/her/hers/herself ♥ aussie
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: ENSO Updates
https://imgur.com/pDXGzGJ
Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.
Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.
2 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- DANKENGINE420
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 51
- Age: 26
- Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:14 pm
- Location: nsw, au
Re: ENSO Updates
Shell Mound wrote:https://imgur.com/pDXGzGJ
Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.
this is also why i think the el nino-like conditions will quickly swallow up the atlantic during peak time of the hurricane season. it will come quicker than y'all can think. remember 2006?
0 likes
♥ lane ♥ 20 ♥ she/her/hers/herself ♥ aussie
Re: ENSO Updates
DANKENGINE420 wrote::)Shell Mound wrote:https://imgur.com/pDXGzGJ
Note that the warm anomalies (-PDO) over the northwestern Pacific weaken while warmth expands dramatically over the equatorial Pacific. Also, the tropical Atlantic, mainly along the equator and abutting West Africa, cools quite a bit. The trend is notable.
this is also why i think the el nino-like conditions will quickly swallow up the atlantic during peak time of the hurricane season. it will come quicker than y'all can think. remember 2006?
ENSO forecasts in the spring in the Northern Hemisphere are not to be taken seriously according to historical data also noted by Phil Klotzbach.
2 likes
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
Last year I don’t think anyone expected a transition to La Niña by the fall. SPB makes forecasts challenging, and we can’t just assume that the 2018 AHS will be any ENSO state.
1 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: ENSO Updates
CyclonicFury wrote:Last year I don’t think anyone expected a transition to La Niña by the fall. SPB makes forecasts challenging, and we can’t just assume that the 2018 AHS will be any ENSO state.
That is quite true. By spring the surface warming was deceptive. But below the surface it was a pretty good sign there would be no Nino. If you followed historical trends, the double dip Nina after a super Nino was better odds than not we just didn't want to take it for face value. Both of those same signals this year favor neutral to warm neutral with slight odds of El Nino.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139719
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Latest subsurface frame shows +4C anomalies returning at the depth:
https://i.imgur.com/vzI8NlS.gif
The CFS V2 operational has reversed its La Nina stance and continues to move up, beginning to cross into neutral range. Most of its latest members are well into El Nino range.
https://i.imgur.com/xA5grKp.gif
And expanding.
4 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ENSO Updates
A good link.
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... /anim.html
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... m_2mw.html
The jet's cactus /split from the effects of the remaining cool water in 3.4.
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... /anim.html
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... m_2mw.html
The jet's cactus /split from the effects of the remaining cool water in 3.4.
1 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
We can see the WWB in full effect on this CDAS 850mb wind analysis:
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Category5Kaiju, Cpv17, cycloneye, Google Adsense [Bot], IsabelaWeather, nijay, skyline385, Stratton23, tolakram, Wampadawg and 36 guests