![Image](https://i.imgur.com/6QdMZZH.gif)
Due to the strong westerlies, there will be probably be very little resistance as the warm anomalies build north of 50 meters, and the sub surface pool will likely expand and strengthen before the trades return (if they do).
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/24tVx4P.gif)
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Shell Mound wrote:If El Niño continues to develop through late summer and early fall '18, then the prospects might favour a back-to-back event in '19:
SNIP - tolakram
Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.
https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png
If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro continues the trend of a reversal for its original forecast of a neutral SOI for May. By May 22, it has the SOI @ -2.5 for the month of May and high Darwin pressures/low Tahiti pressures returning. There's a realistic chance for May to close at -4/-5. Basically means all the blues and deep purples on the hovmollers (strong easterlies) over the dateline/CPAC coming on the GFS/Euro 850mb wind forecasts will likely disappear or not verify.
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.
https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png
If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
The Euro is still persistent in the MJO going into Phase 2 which should get trade winds back up again in the Pacific first.
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro take the MJO back into the circle. This is another signal that favors the prospects of an El Nino as the MJO once again does not end up in the "Nina phases.
https://i.imgur.com/5TrewvI.png
If we go by recent history, it will probably be back in the WPAC or try phases 8/1 again.
The Euro is still persistent in the MJO going into Phase 2 which should get trade winds back up again in the Pacific first.
Yeah, but it barely squeezes into phase 2 compared to previous runs. Phases 3/4/5 could easily nullify an emerging El Nino. The potency and effect of this upcoming trade burst is questionable since it looks to be centered over the dateline and anomalous westerly winds continue to dominant the EPAC. The 12z Euro also showed the pressures over Darwin increasing again after May 21, which would mean a return of the trade winds will be short.
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