Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)
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cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
12z GFS has a sloppy Tropical Storm tracking thru Florida Peninsula and then making landfall in Georgia / South Carolina border as a 1000 mb TS.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
an extratropical low remains by far the most likely solution.
The GFS low is not really tropical. Looks more like a frontal wave. FVGFS now trending toward that solution as well
The GFS low is not really tropical. Looks more like a frontal wave. FVGFS now trending toward that solution as well
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Looks like Euro is losing it now only showing 1003mb probably just a showery holiday weekend as is often the case anyways kicking off summer.
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cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
One of the experts chims in on this.
@DrRickKnabb
Hurricane next weekend very unlikely, appears not an environment for a strong tropical cyclone. Maybe not even a weaker one, but can’t rule it out. Could be subtropical/hybrid with tropical and non-tropical aspects. Keep watching, we’ll know more later.
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/997926714985590785
@DrRickKnabb
Hurricane next weekend very unlikely, appears not an environment for a strong tropical cyclone. Maybe not even a weaker one, but can’t rule it out. Could be subtropical/hybrid with tropical and non-tropical aspects. Keep watching, we’ll know more later.
https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/997926714985590785
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CyclonicFury
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Does anyone have the 12z EPS? If so, how many members show development?
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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TheAustinMan
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
At least for now, the disturbance in question remains a disorganized general area of convection in the Southwestern Caribbean. The whole mass of moisture should slowly push west towards the western Caribbean, but until them, don't expect a whole lot of development.
3.1 MB animated gif. Source: My own data visualization. Unfortunately, it does not appear that SSD will supply this format of satellite imagery for the Atlantic under the new GOES-R generation of satellites, so I generated this myself in the style of the old floater loops.
3.1 MB animated gif. Source: My own data visualization. Unfortunately, it does not appear that SSD will supply this format of satellite imagery for the Atlantic under the new GOES-R generation of satellites, so I generated this myself in the style of the old floater loops.
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cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
That is not a tropical cyclone on the 18z GFS at 150 hours.
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AJC3
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
I'm inclined to discount the Euro's idea of developing the BE (baroclinically enhanced) surface low underneath the mid-upper trough. I think this is a case where pressures will lower farther east, underneath the stronger jet forced ascent. This is looking like another low latitude XTC event, where you have a broad low, with multiple transient convectively induced swirls getting spat out around a larger gyre, and just about all the precip/heavy rain is in the baroclinic zone to the east. Looks like another heavy rain event for Florida late next week - hopefully slightly lower coverage of rain for a day, maybe two, before then.
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Dean4Storms
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
CyclonicFury wrote:Does anyone have the 12z EPS? If so, how many members show development?
I count 4 ECM EPS Members sub 1000mb in the Eastern Gulf headed for the Panhandle 8 days out.
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CyclonicFury
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Dean4Storms wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Does anyone have the 12z EPS? If so, how many members show development?
I count 4 ECM EPS Members sub 1000mb in the Eastern Gulf headed for the Panhandle 8 days out.
Thanks. So only 4 of the 50 members have development?
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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Dean4Storms
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
CyclonicFury wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Does anyone have the 12z EPS? If so, how many members show development?
I count 4 ECM EPS Members sub 1000mb in the Eastern Gulf headed for the Panhandle 8 days out.
Thanks. So only 4 of the 50 members have development?
I see two others in the 1000mb to 1010mb so maybe 2 TD strength closed lows. First closed low appears near western tip of Cuba by Friday Noon.... 4 TS strength head to landfalls from Destin to Cross City in the Big Bemd area. Strongest appears to be 988mb just East of Appalachicola.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
WPC depicts a wet scene over the next week for Florida but really delivers the deluge on the east coast from the keys up to Brevard county. Hopefully the firehose can get a shove eastward.
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stormlover2013
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Sciencerocks
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Lets just say that I won't be trusting the fv3 until it proves its self a few times with these off the wall "predictions".
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cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
I think they have to do plenty of fixing and testing to the FV3 before the upgrade in 2019.
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wxman57
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
CyclonicFury wrote:Does anyone have the 12z EPS? If so, how many members show development?
EC ensembles chance of development dropped from 59% at 00Z to 33% at 12Z. GFS is up to 73%.
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Dylan
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
What an embarrassment for NOAA. The GFS has become a complete joke.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
it did totally drop the Caribbean system
of course, it has a BS hurricane in the Gulf. It forms from a weak wave currently near Florida.
That model needs to be blown up and redesigned from scratch. They can start by using a totally different convective paramaterization scheme
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