ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[AdamFirst]

If the center is just to the west of the convection to south of western-most tip of Cuba, might come a bit further east. Visible images will let us know. When is the next recon?

AF307 is currently en route to Alberto. Will be there within the next hour or two.

[cycloneye]

Plane flying torwards Alberto.

[xironman]

The winds make it look like the center was just close to 42056 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[Alyono]

HWRF is MUCH weaker. However, I've noticed something with HMON and HWRF. They are bringing this too far north too quick such that landfall occurs very early Monday instead of late Monday

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261100
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 11 20180526
105000 2453N 08814W 4102 07339 0334 -170 -379 218013 014 010 000 03
105030 2450N 08814W 4101 07339 0334 -170 -359 213013 014 010 001 00
105100 2448N 08814W 4102 07338 0333 -170 -345 216012 013 008 000 00
105130 2445N 08814W 4101 07339 0333 -171 -359 215012 013 009 000 00
105200 2442N 08813W 4102 07339 0334 -175 -311 208010 011 010 000 00
105230 2440N 08813W 4103 07336 0334 -171 -298 221010 010 010 000 00
105300 2437N 08813W 4101 07339 0333 -170 -338 229011 011 011 001 00
105330 2434N 08813W 4102 07341 0335 -170 -382 226011 012 011 000 00
105400 2432N 08813W 4102 07341 0336 -170 -399 234012 012 010 001 03
105430 2429N 08812W 4101 07344 0337 -170 -396 222012 012 010 000 00
105500 2427N 08810W 4102 07344 0339 -170 -383 221013 013 011 000 00
105530 2424N 08809W 4102 07344 0339 -170 -376 216013 014 010 001 00
105600 2422N 08808W 4102 07345 0340 -172 -323 212013 014 011 001 00
105630 2419N 08806W 4102 07346 0341 -173 -284 212014 014 012 000 00
105700 2417N 08805W 4102 07346 0341 -175 -261 220015 016 012 000 00
105730 2415N 08803W 4102 07346 0341 -174 -274 222015 016 012 001 00
105800 2412N 08802W 4103 07344 0341 -170 -268 224015 015 013 000 00
105830 2410N 08801W 4102 07347 0342 -170 -297 218014 015 012 000 00
105900 2407N 08759W 4103 07346 0341 -171 -275 212013 014 010 000 03
105930 2405N 08758W 4105 07346 0346 -169 -290 201012 013 013 000 00

[Nimbus]

The models may be initialized differently after this mornings recon, shear has really pulled the low level center quite a bit further east than the models had predicted.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261110
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 12 20180526
110000 2402N 08756W 4173 07228 0345 -167 -212 182008 011 014 000 03
110030 2400N 08755W 4238 07117 0344 -159 -196 187009 010 014 000 00
110100 2357N 08753W 4302 07007 0340 -152 -188 211009 010 013 000 00
110130 2355N 08752W 4373 06885 0337 -144 -177 215012 013 013 000 00
110200 2352N 08750W 4434 06781 0332 -137 -168 220011 013 012 000 00
110230 2350N 08749W 4496 06675 0326 -131 -154 229009 010 012 000 00
110300 2347N 08747W 4559 06568 0321 -122 -151 237008 008 012 000 00
110330 2344N 08746W 4624 06461 0315 -112 -149 242009 009 010 001 03
110400 2342N 08744W 4658 06399 0307 -105 -145 240009 009 009 001 03
110430 2339N 08743W 4666 06383 0304 -105 -144 237009 010 011 001 00
110500 2337N 08741W 4664 06387 0303 -105 -145 238009 010 012 000 00
110530 2334N 08740W 4662 06387 0302 -105 -146 237008 009 009 001 03
110600 2332N 08738W 4662 06388 0301 -105 -146 243009 009 012 000 03
110630 2329N 08737W 4662 06388 0301 -105 -149 243007 008 012 000 00
110700 2327N 08736W 4660 06388 0300 -105 -148 248007 008 013 000 03
110730 2324N 08734W 4661 06387 0300 -106 -138 247008 009 013 001 00
110800 2322N 08733W 4660 06388 0300 -107 -135 254007 007 014 000 03
110830 2319N 08731W 4661 06388 0300 -105 -132 254007 007 015 000 00
110900 2317N 08730W 4661 06388 0301 -104 -138 246009 010 014 000 00
110930 2314N 08728W 4660 06389 0301 -100 -150 241010 011 014 000 03

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Remarkable southeastward trend on the ECMWF last several days- model was much too fast with #Alberto. UKMet arguably the best genesis forecasts for this cyclone.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1000330118529781760

[caneman]

@EricBlake12
Remarkable southeastward trend on the ECMWF last several days- model was much too fast with #Alberto. UKMet arguably the best genesis forecasts for this cyclone.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1000330118529781760

All the people declaring Euro success before there was even an LLC. Some willing to discount climatology and UKMET and other models as factors. Hopefully this will help to tamp down the overhype this year and remind some why the NHC goes with a blend. The UKIE is a model we must take more seriously.

[northjaxpro]

We will know very soon once Recon arrives, but there is a lot of convective activity rotating in and around a vort max near western Cuba this morning. I will leave it up to the rest of you to debate what I truly feel is a developing llc in that area.

[tolakram]

The models may be initialized differently after this mornings recon, shear has really pulled the low level center quite a bit further east than the models had predicted.

I'm looking back at the Monday May 21st 12Z run for both Euro and GFS via Tropical Tidbits.

I think both handled it pretty well, especially the GFS with the multiple center signatures. If the current track holds the GFS was too far right the euro a little left (but landfall location pretty close). Because the GFS brought it over Florida there was no strengthening. Once again, the euro appears to do much better but without the GFS the track would be too far left. Even going back to the 12z runs on Saturday May 19th, if you split the difference between the GFS up the east coast of Florida and the Euro, you would have a decent landfall location in the panhandle. I assume this is why the Florida super ensembles and the blended model are so critical to forecasting since they can put error weights on each model and come up with a pretty good track.

The new GFS was even better, though timing is off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2018051912&fh=216

I'd also like to point out this is why the GFS bashing looks pretty silly at times. It's not as good as the euro, it's certainly the second (UKMet maybe???) best global model we have at the moment, but it's not trash.

It will be interesting to see how fast Alberto consolidates, I'm hoping both are over estimating intensity ... it's May after all.

[caneman]

The models may be initialized differently after this mornings recon, shear has really pulled the low level center quite a bit further east than the models had predicted.

I'm looking back at the Monday May 21st 12Z run for both Euro and GFS via Tropical Tidbits.

I think both handled it pretty well, especially the GFS with the multiple center signatures. If the current track holds the GFS was too far right the euro a little left (but landfall location pretty close). Because the GFS brought it over Florida there was no strengthening. Once again, the euro appears to do much better but without the GFS the track would be too far left. Even going back to the 12z runs on Saturday May 19th, if you split the difference between the GFS up the east coast of Florida and the Euro, you would have a decent landfall location in the panhandle. I assume this is why the Florida super ensembles and the blended model are so critical to forecasting since they can put error weights on each model and come up with a pretty good track.

The new GFS was even better, though timing is off: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2018051912&fh=216

I'd also like to point out this is why the GFS bashing looks pretty silly at times. It's not as good as the euro, it's certainly the second (UKMet maybe???) best global model we have at the moment, but it's not trash.

It will be interesting to see how fast Alberto consolidates, I'm hoping both are over estimating intensity ... it's May after all.

Preach it. Thanks for pointing this out. To declare model success before an LLC is formed, several days out or for any other factors is ludicrous. Hopefully that will squash the model cheerleading this year. The UKIE has been performing very well dating back to last year.

[northjaxpro]

I think the GFS will be closer to verifying with what it has been insisting upon all along for the past week or so. The UK Met has also been showing the similar solution. The. eastern solution I feel will pan out and the panhandle region. I feel the landfall area will be somewhere from Pensacola to Apalachicola, but the rainfall is going to be the major story with Alberto.

[tolakram]

COD visible http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

[cycloneye]

Plane has decended to operational altitud.

URNT15 KNHC 261139
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 13 20180526
111000 2312N 08727W 4659 06390 0301 -100 -146 237009 010 014 001 00
111030 2309N 08725W 4661 06388 0301 -100 -144 248006 009 015 000 00
111100 2307N 08724W 4661 06388 0300 -101 -148 267002 005 014 001 03
111130 2304N 08723W 4661 06388 0301 -096 -169 257001 002 015 000 00
111200 2302N 08721W 4662 06387 0301 -099 -164 324002 002 017 000 00
111230 2259N 08720W 4661 06389 0301 -100 -165 285002 003 015 000 00
111300 2257N 08718W 4660 06388 0299 -096 -171 285003 003 017 000 00
111330 2254N 08717W 4660 06385 0297 -099 -165 275004 005 017 000 00
111400 2252N 08716W 4660 06379 0292 -100 -156 290004 005 016 000 00
111430 2249N 08714W 4659 06377 0286 -101 -156 289005 005 015 000 00
111500 2247N 08713W 4660 06374 0285 -100 -155 280006 006 016 000 00
111530 2244N 08711W 4715 06298 0294 -095 -147 287008 009 016 000 03
111600 2242N 08710W 4902 06004 0285 -076 -126 315010 011 /// /// 03
111630 2239N 08708W 5090 05710 0269 -063 -093 312016 018 /// /// 03
111700 2236N 08707W 5305 05386 0252 -041 -077 321016 018 /// /// 03
111730 2234N 08705W 5527 05062 0079 -022 -055 321014 016 /// /// 03
111800 2231N 08704W 5756 04725 0076 -006 -032 315014 015 /// /// 03
111830 2228N 08702W 6004 04386 0078 +013 -009 314014 015 /// /// 03
111900 2226N 08701W 6260 04044 0070 +035 +011 329010 014 /// /// 03
111930 2224N 08700W 6518 03712 0070 +054 +030 348011 012 /// /// 03

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Yucatan Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Cuba, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
northward or north-northeastward motion is expected today,
followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Alberto is expected to move near the western
tip of Cuba today, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Saturday night through Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast
in the watch area Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
buoy is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys
and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the United States watch area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261148
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 15 20180526
113000 2148N 08633W 8494 01466 0055 +172 +127 011012 013 015 000 00
113030 2147N 08632W 8492 01469 0059 +170 +129 009011 011 014 000 00
113100 2146N 08630W 8492 01468 0056 +170 +127 002011 011 019 000 00
113130 2145N 08629W 8495 01468 0057 +175 +126 358011 011 019 000 00
113200 2144N 08627W 8491 01473 0060 +174 +124 358011 012 016 000 03
113230 2143N 08626W 8496 01464 0056 +173 +123 001011 012 016 000 00
113300 2142N 08625W 8491 01469 0057 +164 +143 004011 013 017 001 01
113330 2141N 08623W 8501 01460 0060 +165 +140 000011 012 013 000 03
113400 2140N 08622W 8490 01473 0061 +166 +140 357010 011 012 001 00
113430 2139N 08620W 8500 01461 0061 +162 +148 001008 009 015 001 05
113500 2138N 08619W 8493 01471 //// +160 //// 007006 008 015 002 05
113530 2137N 08618W 8491 01469 0057 +168 +153 358007 008 015 001 00
113600 2136N 08616W 8494 01464 0056 +170 +147 004007 008 013 000 03
113630 2135N 08615W 8494 01468 0057 +170 +148 359007 007 013 000 00
113700 2134N 08613W 8490 01471 0058 +164 +152 342005 007 013 000 03
113730 2132N 08612W 8497 01463 0060 +160 +158 343004 005 012 000 00
113800 2131N 08610W 8492 01468 0061 +158 +156 344006 007 011 000 01
113830 2130N 08609W 8491 01468 0058 +162 +156 330005 005 010 001 00
113900 2129N 08608W 8494 01466 0059 +160 +157 359004 005 010 000 01
113930 2128N 08606W 8493 01466 0057 +165 +159 017003 004 011 000 00
$$

[caneman]

:uarrow:
I think the GFS will be closer to verifying with what it has been insisting upon all along for the past week or so. The UK Met has also been showing the similar solution. The. eastern solution I feel will pan out and the panhandle region. I feel the landfall area will be somewhere from Pensacola to Appalachicola, but the rainfall is going to be the major story with Alberto.

Indeed and I agree with just about everything. Youre right Many of GFS ideas seem to have been correct as well. Some wanted its discontinuance announced immediately. GFS seems to do remarkable with these early season systems. The NHC balances each models weaknesses and strengths. Having said all of that, I believed all along it would come closer to Florida and would be much more of a significant rain and flood event than anything else. Why? Because of climatology, the pattern weve been in since the 13th and the success of some models based on this time of year.

[cycloneye]