ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

COD mid level water vapor. You an see now much this will battle shear and dry air for the next day.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-gulf-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=data

[ROCK]

Classic Lopsided TS for this time of year. High end TS is my guess at landfall. Center is pretty clear now. Got some warm LC water to cross and with slow down at coast. Big rain event..JMO

[crimi481]

Yes - dry air has been weakening rain bands coming off Cuba. Dry air has killed many storms in Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

Remember...models have the trough tilting and cutting off and the shear should relax as it moves NW tomorrow...that is when models show strengthening...we shall see

[CyclonicFury]

Should there be hurricane watches at 5 pm advisory

Doubt it. None of the intensity guidance currently makes Alberto a hurricane at this time.

[ROCK]

Remember...models have the trough tilting and cutting off and the shear should relax as it moves NW tomorrow...that is when models show strengthening...we shall see

Totally agree with that. Also Land interaction could wrap this up a little more on approach..

[DestinHurricane]

Should there be hurricane watches at 5 pm advisory

Doubt it. None of the intensity guidance currently makes Alberto a hurricane at this time.

Gfs showing cat 1

[Ivanhater]

Remember...models have the trough tilting and cutting off and the shear should relax as it moves NW tomorrow...that is when models show strengthening...we shall see

Totally agree with that. Also Land interaction could wrap this up a little more on approach..

Good to see you again ROCK...a little early this year lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

Just an opinion here, and no science included. I think this system will never really get going. It is likely to stay near the intensity it is currently at. It was luck that helped here. A track further west would of been much worse.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Rapid intensification coming

[stormhunter7]

the 1 min hi-res update. Just amazing technology on GOES 16. See hot tower going up on wsw side of coc. Alberto is starting its transition to truly tropical. Don't think unless we get some recon measurements of temps/dewpts or a very consistent CDO will they change it covering CoC. That could happen later tonight or morning. I dont think by the 5pm advisory.

[DestinHurricane]

Rapid intensification coming

Why do you say that? Shear is relatively high in the gulf and water is fairly cool in eastern GoM

[Ivanhater]

Just an opinion here, and no science included. I think this system will never really get going. It is likely to stay near the intensity it is currently at. It was luck that helped here. A track further west would of been much worse.

Opinions are welcome. So by not really getting going..do you think 65 mph is too high?

[stormhunter7]

There are several container ships and tankers in the area of alberto and a few passenger ships. So should get some data from them to detail if winds have come up or are truly Tropical Storm force.

[SunnyThoughts]

There are several container ships and tankers in the area of alberto and a few passenger ships. So should get some data from them to detail if winds have come up or are truly Tropical Storm force.

I think recon is suppose to be headed back out in the next couple of hours as well.

[HurricaneBrain]

Glad to be back! Here’s my personal forecast - I think Alberto will make landfall on the MS/AL line as a borderline Cat. 1 cane.

[Nimbus]

The center is still almost stationary and the moisture is slowly wrapping back around to the southwest. The slower the forecast the further west the track moves according to the models.

Recon will probably not find any weakening and the system might just start to move off to the NNW in response to the high pressure evolution.

[floridasun78]

what rainy day here in miami soon i need boat hope all north fl got ready enjoy last day good weather on this long weekend because time get home stay until it over

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't know where you get stationary. Moving N at 13mph
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1743.shtml

[Ivanhater]

Interesting all 12Z ensemble mean models( Gfs, Euro, Cmc) still show Mobile