ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1641 Postby tolakram » Sat May 26, 2018 2:14 pm

COD mid level water vapor. You an see now much this will battle shear and dry air for the next day.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-gulf-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=data
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1642 Postby ROCK » Sat May 26, 2018 2:17 pm

Classic Lopsided TS for this time of year. High end TS is my guess at landfall. Center is pretty clear now. Got some warm LC water to cross and with slow down at coast. Big rain event..JMO
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1643 Postby crimi481 » Sat May 26, 2018 2:17 pm

Yes - dry air has been weakening rain bands coming off Cuba. Dry air has killed many storms in Gulf.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1644 Postby Ivanhater » Sat May 26, 2018 2:22 pm

Remember...models have the trough tilting and cutting off and the shear should relax as it moves NW tomorrow...that is when models show strengthening...we shall see
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1645 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat May 26, 2018 2:23 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:Should there be hurricane watches at 5 pm advisory

Doubt it. None of the intensity guidance currently makes Alberto a hurricane at this time.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1646 Postby ROCK » Sat May 26, 2018 2:23 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Remember...models have the trough tilting and cutting off and the shear should relax as it moves NW tomorrow...that is when models show strengthening...we shall see


Totally agree with that. Also Land interaction could wrap this up a little more on approach..
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1647 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat May 26, 2018 2:24 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:Should there be hurricane watches at 5 pm advisory

Doubt it. None of the intensity guidance currently makes Alberto a hurricane at this time.

Gfs showing cat 1
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1648 Postby Ivanhater » Sat May 26, 2018 2:25 pm

ROCK wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Remember...models have the trough tilting and cutting off and the shear should relax as it moves NW tomorrow...that is when models show strengthening...we shall see


Totally agree with that. Also Land interaction could wrap this up a little more on approach..


Good to see you again ROCK...a little early this year lol
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1649 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat May 26, 2018 2:32 pm

Just an opinion here, and no science included. I think this system will never really get going. It is likely to stay near the intensity it is currently at. It was luck that helped here. A track further west would of been much worse.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1650 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat May 26, 2018 2:33 pm

Rapid intensification coming
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1651 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat May 26, 2018 2:33 pm

the 1 min hi-res update. Just amazing technology on GOES 16. See hot tower going up on wsw side of coc. Alberto is starting its transition to truly tropical. Don't think unless we get some recon measurements of temps/dewpts or a very consistent CDO will they change it covering CoC. That could happen later tonight or morning. I dont think by the 5pm advisory.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1652 Postby DestinHurricane » Sat May 26, 2018 2:35 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Rapid intensification coming

Why do you say that? Shear is relatively high in the gulf and water is fairly cool in eastern GoM
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1653 Postby Ivanhater » Sat May 26, 2018 2:35 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Just an opinion here, and no science included. I think this system will never really get going. It is likely to stay near the intensity it is currently at. It was luck that helped here. A track further west would of been much worse.


Opinions are welcome. So by not really getting going..do you think 65 mph is too high?
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1654 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat May 26, 2018 2:36 pm

There are several container ships and tankers in the area of alberto and a few passenger ships. So should get some data from them to detail if winds have come up or are truly Tropical Storm force.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1655 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat May 26, 2018 2:38 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:There are several container ships and tankers in the area of alberto and a few passenger ships. So should get some data from them to detail if winds have come up or are truly Tropical Storm force.


I think recon is suppose to be headed back out in the next couple of hours as well.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1656 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sat May 26, 2018 2:46 pm

Glad to be back! Here’s my personal forecast - I think Alberto will make landfall on the MS/AL line as a borderline Cat. 1 cane.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1657 Postby Nimbus » Sat May 26, 2018 2:48 pm

The center is still almost stationary and the moisture is slowly wrapping back around to the southwest. The slower the forecast the further west the track moves according to the models.

Recon will probably not find any weakening and the system might just start to move off to the NNW in response to the high pressure evolution.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1658 Postby floridasun78 » Sat May 26, 2018 2:58 pm

what rainy day here in miami soon i need boat hope all north fl got ready enjoy last day good weather on this long weekend because time get home stay until it over
Last edited by floridasun78 on Sat May 26, 2018 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1659 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sat May 26, 2018 2:58 pm

Don't know where you get stationary. Moving N at 13mph
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1743.shtml
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1660 Postby Ivanhater » Sat May 26, 2018 2:58 pm

Interesting all 12Z ensemble mean models( Gfs, Euro, Cmc) still show Mobile
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