2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Steve]

Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.

Interestingly enough, he's also been pimping the MJO (usually uses the ECMWF forecast for it). If you look at the most recent run I have, it goes back into the circle and sort of heads over to Phase 8. Often when in Phase 8, it will swing back through 1 and 2. So even by his own logic, there is a chance that something could get going down there based off his entire premise this year of Phase 2 sometimes leading to an enhanced Gulf threat (or indicating it).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ecmf.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

The Western Caribbean is certainly a climatologically favored area. However, there has still been no significant jump up in time frame yet. I’d still take this with a grain of salt.

Jump up in time frame ?

Yeah, same thing Larry is pointing out. Genesis keeps getting pushed back. I stick by what I’ve said that the GFS could be jumping the gun. It has already pushed genesis back by 3 days. The CMC jumping onboard is interesting, but that model too is genesis-happy. We will see.

well if you read what I said.. it really has not pushed back genesis by 3 days ( barely 1 day) .. but I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Weather150]

12z Euro continues to show higher pressures across Caribbean and Gulf.

[Alyono]

ec keeps the area of vorticity over land, though it is in the BOC at day 10

[LarryWx]

Excluding a few members possibly having a TS in the Bay of Campeche 6/19+, the 12Z CDN ensemble has no more than 2 members reach TS strength in the entire run in the W Caribbean or GOM and none near FL, where relatively high pressure (the western extension of the W Atlantic high) dominates. Overall, it looks pretty quiet imo. Let's see if the EPS stays on the quiet side.

[Aric Dunn]

Excluding a few members possibly having a TS in the Bay of Campeche 6/19+, the 12Z CDN ensemble has no more than 2 members reach TS strength in the entire run in the W Caribbean or GOM and none near FL, where relatively high pressure (the western extension of the W Atlantic high) dominates. Overall, it looks pretty quiet imo. Let's see if the EPS stays on the quiet side.

That is 2 more than it did yesterday lol

[aperson]

Anyone notice the 965hPa cyclone in the Arctic? It's been causing pretty substantial 5H error at the synoptic scale in the 5-8d range.

[LarryWx]

Excluding a few members possibly having a TS in the Bay of Campeche 6/19+, the 12Z CDN ensemble has no more than 2 members reach TS strength in the entire run in the W Caribbean or GOM and none near FL, where relatively high pressure (the western extension of the W Atlantic high) dominates. Overall, it looks pretty quiet imo. Let's see if the EPS stays on the quiet side.

That is 2 more than it did yesterday lol

Point taken.

The EPS remains very quiet although it now has 1 TS in the N GOM 6/14-5 fwiw. So, yes one more than yesterday. But keep in mind that that's only 1 of 50 members.

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM on board with 1007 mb low off Yucatan at 180 hrs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018060612&fh=180

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET with some weak development but pushes it into Central America (similar to the ECMWF):

[Aric Dunn]

12Z UKMET with some weak development but pushes it into Central America (similar to the ECMWF):

Similar to the GFS a couple days aog..

[Dean4Storms]

It's obvious that some models are jumping on the development bandwagon and some are not. When this is the case all we can do is wait and watch to see what unfolds in subsequent model solutions and not get bottled up on one way or the other at this point. Patience Grasshoppers!

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS has a hurricane into the Florida Panhandle.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MJGarrison]

It's obvious that some models are jumping on the development bandwagon and some are not. When this is the case all we can do is wait and watch to see what unfolds in subsequent model solutions and not get bottled up on one way or the other at this point. Patience Grasshoppers!

I know some of the other models are based off of the GFS. Are those the ones that are also showing development?

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[NDG]

Excluding a few members possibly having a TS in the Bay of Campeche 6/19+, the 12Z CDN ensemble has no more than 2 members reach TS strength in the entire run in the W Caribbean or GOM and none near FL, where relatively high pressure (the western extension of the W Atlantic high) dominates. Overall, it looks pretty quiet imo. Let's see if the EPS stays on the quiet side.

That is 2 more than it did yesterday lol

Point taken.

The EPS remains very quiet although it now has 1 TS in the N GOM 6/14-5 fwiw. So, yes one more than yesterday. But keep in mind that that's only 1 of 50 members.

I'm actually seeing more than one EPS member showing development, but most on the 10-14 day range instead of the 7-10 day range.

[robbielyn]

Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.

Well it is Joe B. afterall..

niiice comeback Aric. Can not argue that one

[MetroMike]

Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.

Well it is Joe B. afterall..

niiice comeback Aric. Can not argue that one

Nice excuse from Joe B because the track does not fit his seasonal areas of action.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles, while not particularly enthusiastic, are a good bit to the right of the GFS operational going through or near Southern Florida:

[Dean4Storms]

It's obvious that some models are jumping on the development bandwagon and some are not. When this is the case all we can do is wait and watch to see what unfolds in subsequent model solutions and not get bottled up on one way or the other at this point. Patience Grasshoppers!

I know some of the other models are based off of the GFS. Are those the ones that are also showing development?

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Not really, the GEM is Canadian, the NAVGEM is not GFS based nor is ICON.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

18Z GFS ensembles, while not particularly enthusiastic, are a good bit to the right of the GFS operational going through or near Southern Florida:

Given shear which would cause the center to reform further east a track toward south Florida is a very reasonable solution.

SSTs are a bit higher so the intensity may be ramped up a bit compared to Alberto if other factors are not more inhibitory than they were during Alberto.