2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#621 Postby Steve » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:09 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.


Interestingly enough, he's also been pimping the MJO (usually uses the ECMWF forecast for it). If you look at the most recent run I have, it goes back into the circle and sort of heads over to Phase 8. Often when in Phase 8, it will swing back through 1 and 2. So even by his own logic, there is a chance that something could get going down there based off his entire premise this year of Phase 2 sometimes leading to an enhanced Gulf threat (or indicating it).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ecmf.shtml
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#622 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:18 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:The Western Caribbean is certainly a climatologically favored area. However, there has still been no significant jump up in time frame yet. I’d still take this with a grain of salt.

Jump up in time frame ?


Yeah, same thing Larry is pointing out. Genesis keeps getting pushed back. I stick by what I’ve said that the GFS could be jumping the gun. It has already pushed genesis back by 3 days. The CMC jumping onboard is interesting, but that model too is genesis-happy. We will see.


well if you read what I said.. it really has not pushed back genesis by 3 days ( barely 1 day) .. but I guess we will have to wait and see.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#623 Postby Weather150 » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:52 pm

12z Euro continues to show higher pressures across Caribbean and Gulf.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#624 Postby Alyono » Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:58 pm

ec keeps the area of vorticity over land, though it is in the BOC at day 10
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#625 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 06, 2018 2:05 pm

Excluding a few members possibly having a TS in the Bay of Campeche 6/19+, the 12Z CDN ensemble has no more than 2 members reach TS strength in the entire run in the W Caribbean or GOM and none near FL, where relatively high pressure (the western extension of the W Atlantic high) dominates. Overall, it looks pretty quiet imo. Let's see if the EPS stays on the quiet side.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#626 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:14 pm

LarryWx wrote:Excluding a few members possibly having a TS in the Bay of Campeche 6/19+, the 12Z CDN ensemble has no more than 2 members reach TS strength in the entire run in the W Caribbean or GOM and none near FL, where relatively high pressure (the western extension of the W Atlantic high) dominates. Overall, it looks pretty quiet imo. Let's see if the EPS stays on the quiet side.


That is 2 more than it did yesterday lol
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#627 Postby aperson » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:17 pm

Anyone notice the 965hPa cyclone in the Arctic? It's been causing pretty substantial 5H error at the synoptic scale in the 5-8d range.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#628 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Excluding a few members possibly having a TS in the Bay of Campeche 6/19+, the 12Z CDN ensemble has no more than 2 members reach TS strength in the entire run in the W Caribbean or GOM and none near FL, where relatively high pressure (the western extension of the W Atlantic high) dominates. Overall, it looks pretty quiet imo. Let's see if the EPS stays on the quiet side.


That is 2 more than it did yesterday lol


Point taken.

The EPS remains very quiet although it now has 1 TS in the N GOM 6/14-5 fwiw. So, yes one more than yesterday. But keep in mind that that's only 1 of 50 members.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#629 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:31 pm

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#630 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:36 pm

12Z UKMET with some weak development but pushes it into Central America (similar to the ECMWF):

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#631 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jun 06, 2018 3:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET with some weak development but pushes it into Central America (similar to the ECMWF):

Image


Similar to the GFS a couple days aog..
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#632 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:47 pm

It's obvious that some models are jumping on the development bandwagon and some are not. When this is the case all we can do is wait and watch to see what unfolds in subsequent model solutions and not get bottled up on one way or the other at this point. Patience Grasshoppers! :D
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#633 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:49 pm

18z GFS has a hurricane into the Florida Panhandle.

Image


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Re: RE: Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#634 Postby MJGarrison » Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:02 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:It's obvious that some models are jumping on the development bandwagon and some are not. When this is the case all we can do is wait and watch to see what unfolds in subsequent model solutions and not get bottled up on one way or the other at this point. Patience Grasshoppers! :D
I know some of the other models are based off of the GFS. Are those the ones that are also showing development?

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#635 Postby NDG » Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:46 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Excluding a few members possibly having a TS in the Bay of Campeche 6/19+, the 12Z CDN ensemble has no more than 2 members reach TS strength in the entire run in the W Caribbean or GOM and none near FL, where relatively high pressure (the western extension of the W Atlantic high) dominates. Overall, it looks pretty quiet imo. Let's see if the EPS stays on the quiet side.


That is 2 more than it did yesterday lol


Point taken.

The EPS remains very quiet although it now has 1 TS in the N GOM 6/14-5 fwiw. So, yes one more than yesterday. But keep in mind that that's only 1 of 50 members.


I'm actually seeing more than one EPS member showing development, but most on the 10-14 day range instead of the 7-10 day range.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#636 Postby robbielyn » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.


Well it is Joe B. afterall.. :P

niiice comeback Aric. Can not argue that one :lol:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#637 Postby MetroMike » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:29 pm

robbielyn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.


Well it is Joe B. afterall.. :P

niiice comeback Aric. Can not argue that one :lol:


Nice excuse from Joe B because the track does not fit his seasonal areas of action.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#638 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:41 pm

18Z GFS ensembles, while not particularly enthusiastic, are a good bit to the right of the GFS operational going through or near Southern Florida:

Image
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Re: RE: Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#639 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:21 pm

MJGarrison wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:It's obvious that some models are jumping on the development bandwagon and some are not. When this is the case all we can do is wait and watch to see what unfolds in subsequent model solutions and not get bottled up on one way or the other at this point. Patience Grasshoppers! :D
I know some of the other models are based off of the GFS. Are those the ones that are also showing development?

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Not really, the GEM is Canadian, the NAVGEM is not GFS based nor is ICON.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#640 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS ensembles, while not particularly enthusiastic, are a good bit to the right of the GFS operational going through or near Southern Florida:

Image


Given shear which would cause the center to reform further east a track toward south Florida is a very reasonable solution.

SSTs are a bit higher so the intensity may be ramped up a bit compared to Alberto if other factors are not more inhibitory than they were during Alberto.
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