2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

Even less on the 12z Euro ..lol

[NDG]

The trend has been even for the GFS is that ridging moving in from the tropical Atlantic into the Caribbean next week is trending stronger so I feel confident that even if the GFS & CMC are correct this is a TX/LA problem maybe even just a MX problem, may not be nothing for us here in FL to worry about. IMO.

[psyclone]

My expectation is as follows: when the dust settles this will be another feather in the cap of the sticky that prohibits threads on modelstorms.

[Aric Dunn]

wait Euro almost develops something heading through the western gulf..

you can follow the vorticity from the SW carrib -- gulf of Honduras-- bay of Campeche then approaching texas with a closed isobar lol

so that is a first.. yay euro.. lol

[gatorcane]

A very weak area of vorticity on the Euro in the Boc yes - but the Euro insists no development and that is day 5 we are talking about so not long-range:

[Haris]

euro trended 2% towards the GFS.

At this point , a mix of the both and a weak TS is poss

[Alyono]

EC for the first time has a weak low going into northern Mexico

[Aric Dunn]

substantial convection through the trip from the SW carrib. pretty easy to see something more substantial come out of that from the EURO.

[USTropics]

Meanwhile, the UKMET continues to advertise lowering pressures in the EPAC. Past runs have shown weak development of a 3rd system (behind BUD), but gradually runs have shown a weaker and weaker area of low pressure that has gravitated towards CA:

[stormreader]

A very weak area of vorticity on the Euro in the Boc yes - but the Euro insists no development and that is day 5 we are talking about so not long-range:

Euro beginning to see the light?? Also, notice how far south and west the Euro puts the system (in the BOC)....so it's not impressive at all. EPAC monsoonal already in full swing, so that makes sense. But if the system (which the Euro has been late to acknowledge) does form further east, then you might expect a more pronounced system coming off the Yucatan and in the central GOM (perhaps??)

[Aric Dunn]

Im JB is starting to freak out now.. its story time..

[Haris]

euro trended ALOT wetter for tx and highs in the 70s! Best case scenario

[Aric Dunn]

ALso the GFS MJO Forecast was pretty much dead on.. we are going favorably now and very favorable by middle next week..

[Dean4Storms]

Taking a look at SST’s the SW Gulf is some of the warmest SST’s currently in the whole Atlantic basin running between 29.5 and 30C. SST’s between 28.5 and 29.5C cover the whole western Gulf from the Yuc. Peninsula northward. Unless shear or dry air is worse than what Alberto dealt with I don’t see any reasonable reason why any low at the surface or sustained deep convection would not have a good shot at significant development once over the western Gulf.

This is my own opinion and certainly not an official forecast.

[bamajammer4eva]

NHC posted to twitter as if they see the GFS, ICON, and CMC and want to reaffirm their position

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1005522111769776128

[Aric Dunn]

NHC posted to twitter as if they see the GFS, ICON, and CMC and want to reaffirm their position

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1005522111769776128[/twet]

lol I mean they know best. but have eaten their words countless times.

[Dylan]

European now tries its best to develop an area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico next week, with a significant surge of moisture and heavy rain for Texas. Knowing the Euro's western bias in the mid-range, and that it probably won't go as far left as its forecasting, I feel more comfortable acknowledging the potential for development of a WEAK system in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. This position seems fair based on climatology and lack of consistency from guidance.

[stormreader]

European now tries its best to develop an area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico next week, with a significant surge of moisture and heavy rain for Texas. Knowing the Euro's western bias in the mid-range, and that it probably won't go as far left as its forecasting, I feel more comfortable acknowledging the potential for development of a WEAK system in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. This position seems fair based on climatology and lack of consistency from guidance.

Logical call at this point. Stated earlier, I now favor a named system in the GOM. There may very well be potential for something stronger, but I think a named system is enough said for right now.

[SoupBone]

NHC posted to twitter as if they see the GFS, ICON, and CMC and want to reaffirm their position

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1005522111769776128[/twet]

lol I mean they know best. but have eaten their words countless times.

You have the NHC saying "nope" within the 5 day range, the GFS screaming at the top of its lungs "Cat 2-3 headed your way!" and the Euro going "ehhhh, uh huh, well, hmmmm". To say this is confusing is an understatement.

[bamajammer4eva]

JB now on board via twitter

@BigJoeBastardi
10m10 minutes ago
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Okay NOW THE TROPICS HAVE MY ATTENTION! ECWMF move of MJO into phase 1 then perhaps 2/3 says to look out late next week and week after


@BigJoeBastardi
9m9 minutes ago
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GFS still looks way overdone but western gulf is area I am watching in 6-10