WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

40 knots

10W TEN 180704 1200 12.6N 145.4E WPAC 40 993

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1014560723652014084

[mrbagyo]

Still dropping. 996.6

47knots gust.

METAR: PGUA 041722Z 05036G47KT 10SM +RA FEW001 OVC005 24/24 A2946 RMK AO2A VIS 1/4 RWY06L VIS 1/8 RWY24L VIS M1/8 RWY24R PRESFR SLP966 RVRNO CHINO RWY24L $


UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.0 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 04 JUL 2018 Time : 164000 UTC Lat : 13:03:57 N Lon : 144:44:20 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 996.5mb/ 49.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.2 3.4 3.4 Center Temp : -73.6C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 53km - Environmental MSLP : 1008mb Satellite Name : HIM-8 Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.0 degrees

[mrbagyo]

Droppin droppin
993.2

METAR: PGUA 041737Z 04041G55KT 10SM +RA OVC004 24/24 A2936 RMK AO2A VIS 1/8 RWY06L VIS M1/8 RWY24L VIS M1/8 RWY24R PRESFR SLP932 RVRNO CHINO RWY24L $

[mrbagyo]

Freakin Insanity - pressure knida free all

984.0mb!!!

METAR: PGUA 041750Z 10022G63KT 2SM +RA OVC003 24/24 A2909 RMK AO2A WSHFT 48 VIS 1/8 RWY06L VIS 1/4 RWY24L VIS 1/8 RWY24R SLP840 RVRNO CHINO RWY24L $

[NotoSans]

PGUA's observations look a bit weird to me, in particular the rate of pressure change.

[SouthDadeFish]

It's a shame it appears the radar has stopped working. The last radar frames look like the mesovortex was becoming the dominant center of the TC, with a potential eyewall forming.

[mrbagyo]

Yeah. I noticed that too. Last frame was 17:22utc.

Maybe they lost power when the meso arrived.

[mrbagyo]

Freakin Insanity - pressure knida free all

984.0mb!!!

METAR: PGUA 041750Z 10022G63KT 2SM +RA OVC003 24/24 A2909 RMK AO2A WSHFT 48 VIS 1/8 RWY06L VIS 1/4 RWY24L VIS 1/8 RWY24R SLP840 RVRNO CHINO RWY24L $

45 knots
989 mbars

10W TEN 180704 1800 13.4N 144.9E WPAC 45 989

[cycloneye]

Freakin Insanity - pressure knida free all

984.0mb!!!

METAR: PGUA 041750Z 10022G63KT 2SM +RA OVC003 24/24 A2909 RMK AO2A WSHFT 48 VIS 1/8 RWY06L VIS 1/4 RWY24L VIS 1/8 RWY24R SLP840 RVRNO CHINO RWY24L $

45 knots
989 mbars

10W TEN 180704 1800 13.4N 144.9E WPAC 45 989

Do you have the link to the WPAC Best Track?

[Guamphoon]

We had a real strong band pass by recently. Pressure plummeted on my smartphone. Stuff on my balcony got knocked over.

Reports of power outages and localized flooding coming in on my Whatsapp.

[Guamphoon]

45 minutes ago

[youtube]https://youtu.be/oXW0QUgtK3Q[/youtube]

[1900hurricane]

Freakin Insanity - pressure knida free all

984.0mb!!!

METAR: PGUA 041750Z 10022G63KT 2SM +RA OVC003 24/24 A2909 RMK AO2A WSHFT 48 VIS 1/8 RWY06L VIS 1/4 RWY24L VIS 1/8 RWY24R SLP840 RVRNO CHINO RWY24L $

45 knots
989 mbars

10W TEN 180704 1800 13.4N 144.9E WPAC 45 989

Do you have the link to the WPAC Best Track?

Here's what I use typically. Looks like it was edited to 55 kt.

[cycloneye]

JMA:.

TS 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 4 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 4 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°30' (13.5°)
E144°55' (144.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55' (15.9°)
E142°55' (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 140 km (75 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30' (17.5°)
E142°10' (142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°55' (19.9°)
E140°40' (140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 July>
Center position of probability circle N22°10' (22.2°)
E136°35' (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 July>
Center position of probability circle N25°00' (25.0°)
E131°50' (131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Radius of probability circle 540 km (290 NM)

[cycloneye]

@ExtremeStorms
Pressure drop at Andersen AFB almost 10mb in 1 hr. as Maria came through.



 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1014590028524158976

[1900hurricane]

Most recent microwave image:

[cycloneye]

JTWC 21:00 UTC warning at 55 kts.Peak shoots up to 135 kts.

[cycloneye]

[CyclonicFury]

Ironically, if Maria becomes a Category 5 on the SSHWS, it would be the first NHEM C5 since Maria.

[euro6208]

Honestly it was worse than we thought. Had a couple power outage and winds were alot more violent. It was definitely developing rapidly as it passed through.