ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Special advisory or they wait until 5 PM since is in open waters?

[Aric Dunn]

TD to a hurricane.. lol though more likely they will go to 70 mph for an advisory then up it to a hurricane if the trend continues.

[txwatcher91]

Given the visible presentation and the microwave passes showing an eyewall forming, it's likely this is a strong TS at this time. A hurricane looks pretty likely now... I wonder if this will affect the track and how well it handles the shear in a few days.

[wxman57]

It's TINY, like Marco of 2008. Radius of max winds under 15 miles. The whole core is about 35 miles across. Small cyclones can strengthen quickly and weaken quickly.

[Alyono]

TS Beryl now

[NDG]

Been on vacation during the past few days, all I can say is that I have busted big time for saying a week or two ago that the MDR was going to be closed for business during the month of July, lol. I guess TD 2 has been lucky that it has tracked fairly south closer to warmer waters and away from the deep SAL.

Edit: Slow internet service, I see that it is now TS Beryl.

[wxman57]

Close-up of Beryl an hour ago. "Eye" less distinct now.

[txwatcher91]

It's TINY, like Marco of 2008. Radius of max winds under 15 miles. The whole core is about 35 miles across. Small cyclones can strengthen quickly and weaken quickly.

Just goes to show how much we still have to learn about intensity forecasting. No one expected much from this system and here we are with a developing eyewall and likely strong TS based on microwave data.

[Aric Dunn]

This is going to be an interesting discussion... winds only 40mph..

[CyclonicFury]

I certainly did not expect to see a tropical storm in the MDR in early July this year. I'm shocked.

[GCANE]

Looks like an eyewall hot tower firing off and spinning around.
Tropopause expanding ahead of Beryl's path.
Should barrel to 50W with no problems.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like an eyewall hot tower firing off and spinning around.
Tropopause expanding ahead of Beryl's path.
Should barrel to 50W with no problems.

Yep continuous hot tower developments and wrapping around is a typical sign of a developing hurricane.

[wxman57]

Been on vacation during the past few days, all I can say is that I have busted big time for saying a week or two ago that the MDR was going to be closed for business during the month of July, lol. I guess TD 2 has been lucky that it has tracked fairly south closer to warmer waters and away from the deep SAL.

Edit: Slow internet service, I see that it is now TS Beryl.

Beryl formed on the SW edge of another SAL outbreak. Typically, there is an area of convergence west of and south of SAL outbreaks. This can lead to the formation of small cyclones (Beryl). It still appears that Beryl will run into increasing shear over the weekend as it approaches the Caribbean, causing its circulation to dissipate.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Beryl's an extremely small storm and can probably ramp up quick. I think 50 knots is a reasonable guess now.

[Aric Dunn]

Eye clearing out more.

[CrazyC83]

If they flew Recon in there, I think they'd find a lot stronger of a storm.

I'd personally go with 55 kt right now, although with a great deal of uncertainty.

[Ian2401]

It really seems like the NHC has been dropping the ball on this one. Likely has been a TC since yesterday, and now it seems the current wind estimate at 40mph is far too low.

[SouthDadeFish]

I certainly think Beryl is stronger than a 40 mph tropical storm, but I don't think this is a hurricane yet. Nonetheless, the rate of intensification today is pretty impressive. TCs can overcome nearby dry air when there is minimal vertical wind shear, as seen in this case. SHIPS has shear remaining below 5 kt over the next 24 h, so I wouldn't be shocked if Beryl did become a hurricane at some point.

[Aric Dunn]

If they flew Recon in there, I think they'd find a lot stronger of a storm.

I'd personally go with 55 kt right now, although with a great deal of uncertainty.

Agreed. 60 to 65 is reasonable. though the pressure gradient is probably rather high. could be higher.

[AubreyStorm]

Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018
230 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BERYL...

Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical depression has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An
updated intensity forecast will be provided with the 500 PM AST
(2100 UTC) advisory.


SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 42.3W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Berg