WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

120 kts

EP, 10, 2018080600, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1386W, 120, 947, HU

[Eric Webb]

120 kts

EP, 10, 2018080600, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1386W, 120, 947, HU

If this stands at the next advisory this should bring Hector to 16.87 ACE units

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That's a real breeding ground for intensification if Hector stays low and gets into that 30, 31C water closer to the dateline. That could EASILY support a strong cat 5.

I did hear about Hector losing latitude as it approaches (or after) the International Date Line. The resulting intensification could be unprecedented.

[Yellow Evan]

That's a real breeding ground for intensification if Hector stays low and gets into that 30, 31C water closer to the dateline. That could EASILY support a strong cat 5.

I did hear about Hector losing latitude as it approaches (or after) the International Date Line. The resulting intensification could be unprecedented.

I mean Ioke did the exact same thing.

[Ntxw]

If my math is right, I got 16.7 units with latest 120kts

[1900hurricane]

I'm at 16.4925 units using best track.

[Kingarabian]

A few SSMIS passes will be in soon. Hope they don't miss the core.

Of course it missed

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That's a real breeding ground for intensification if Hector stays low and gets into that 30, 31C water closer to the dateline. That could EASILY support a strong cat 5.

I did hear about Hector losing latitude as it approaches (or after) the International Date Line. The resulting intensification could be unprecedented.

I mean Ioke did the exact same thing.

But yeah, compared to Ioke---if it does, it would most likely be noticeably more powerful. This one could rack up more than 50 ACE units. I'm now going with mid-grade (145-155 kts) category 5 before the dateline, even more. Ioke only peaked at 140 kts. This hasn't even crossed the CPAC yet this has become powerful

[Ntxw]

I'm at 16.4925 units using best track.

I got the same using BEST track. But a bit more with operational warnings.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=EP102018

[Eric Webb]

Best track ACE is going to be a little lower than the official NHC advisories, I prefer to base the ACE calculations on the latter because BEST comes in usually an hr or two before the advisory comes out and there's still time for the TC to intensify and/or weaken in the mean time. I've also automated the ACE calculation to keep my sanity lol

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, I can see why people like to use the public advisories, but there are still several reasons I prefer to use best track data aside from it just being easier. It's still official, even though it isn't released in public advisories, can be altered if needed (such as if recon finds the storm at a different intensity than expected), and also likes up very neatly with post season data, allowing direct comparisons with operational data.

[Ntxw]

[Eric Webb]

Just for a little perspective, Hector would need to maintain this intensity of 120 KT for about 11-12 days to beat Ioke's ACE record, if Hector sticks around for 2.5 weeks (or more) as the GFS and some EPS members are suggesting, Hector has plenty of time to cover a ton of ground.

[Visioen]

A few SSMIS passes will be in soon. Hope they don't miss the core.

Of course it missed

It's a MISSS pass.


Sorry.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 117 114 107 100 92 85 78 75 72 71 70
V (KT) LAND 120 120 117 114 107 100 92 85 78 75 72 71 70
V (KT) LGEM 120 118 113 108 103 96 92 88 85 84 85 87 91
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 2 2 7 2 1 1 5 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0 2 2 0 1 0 -7 -6
SHEAR DIR 12 19 45 65 82 347 116 177 177 117 337 329 325
SST (C) 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.3 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 135 134 130 134 132 128 136 134 136 138 141
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10
700-500 MB RH 50 53 53 50 49 45 42 40 37 35 35 37 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 22 20 21 20 21 20 20 21 21 21
850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 42 49 50 38 26 49 49 62 63 62 67
200 MB DIV -3 -22 -7 8 5 -16 27 18 30 -6 -12 -14 22
700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 0 2 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1809 1673 1537 1388 1239 922 601 355 248 407 552 701 921
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.8 16.7 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.8
LONG(DEG W) 138.6 139.9 141.1 142.5 143.8 146.8 150.0 153.0 156.0 158.9 161.7 164.6 167.4
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 14 13 14 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 13 14 11 6 9 16 20 30 23 40

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -27. -36. -44. -50. -54. -57. -57.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -3. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -6. -13. -19. -28. -35. -42. -45. -48. -49. -50.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.5 138.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 827.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 00 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 83 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[1900hurricane]

AHI = 83. Hmmm...

[Kingarabian]

A few SSMIS passes will be in soon. Hope they don't miss the core.

Of course it missed

It's a MISSS pass.


Sorry.

Lmao. That's painfully fitting.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

media is way overhyping this one. These storms get shredded up before they get close to the big island. Its very rare they make it, they have to be moving fast

[Kazmit]

media is way overhyping this one. These storms get shredded up before they get close to the big island. Its very rare they make it, they have to be moving fast

They may be overhyping its threat to Hawaii but not its intensity. It's likely that this could pass by as a major hurricane.

[Cyclenall]

With the new data, I would estimate the intensity at 130 kt. The T6.7 estimate seems fairly reasonable.

Yes, 130 knots from me as well.

That's a real breeding ground for intensification if Hector stays low and gets into that 30, 31C water closer to the dateline. That could EASILY support a strong cat 5.

I did hear about Hector losing latitude as it approaches (or after) the International Date Line. The resulting intensification could be unprecedented.

That's the dream! The more low he stays, the more interesting this gets. For heaven's sake Hector, lose some latitude!

AHI = 83. Hmmm...

When I saw the SHIPS output I scrolled right to the AHI and had the same reaction.