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LarryWx wrote:tolakram wrote:Last year was a good example of seemingly bad conditions until suddenly it wasn't. Remember all the upper level lows last year?
Keep in mind that last year started off as heading toward El Niño before it surprisingly made an unexpected about face toward a much more favorable for tropical La Niña. I don’t see anywhere near a repeat because the subsurface equatorial Pacific is so much warmer. Also, the Eurosip forecast for ASO of 2018 has much higher SLPs vs what it showed in 2017. Furthermore, the Caribbean shear at this time last year was not as high even though it wasn’t low.
Hammy wrote:Weekly check on the CFS shows an equally unlikely flip to a 2013 scenario from the high level of activity in the previous map, though it's trended quieter this week. Might see a flip back in the other direction as more favorable conditions approach and as the waters warm, but here's an estimation of the latest run, which would put the season at 15/3/0.
Emmett_Brown wrote:Well, SST's over much of the Atlantic certainly are warm enough for action, assuming atmospheric conditions allow it:
NDG wrote:Interesting, in another words don't use Tropical Tidbit's CFSR SSTs forecast for now.
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Replying to @CyclonicFury @NDGMETCHEF @philklotzbach
I've mentioned before that something is off with the climatology from CFSR that I'm using for these plots. I've now disabled these until I can figure out why the climatology is too cold.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1029449217515900928[tweet]
floridasun78 wrote:i hear this year we seen more sal and past few year going into aug we going see sal here later this week here in fl untill that totaly leave we wont see strong wave coming out afica i hearing shear been dropping last few weeks that could help wave when sal drop more
HURRICANELONNY wrote:I'm having a hard time finding a good site to see the SAL. This was my favorite site but it's down. Any other good sites out there. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=
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