2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Good thing the MDR has been quiet so far, the Bermuda mid level ridge has been strong and forecasted to stay strong as we head towards the heart of the hurricane season.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Well, SST's over much of the Atlantic certainly are warm enough for action, assuming atmospheric conditions allow it:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
LarryWx wrote:tolakram wrote:Last year was a good example of seemingly bad conditions until suddenly it wasn't. Remember all the upper level lows last year?
Keep in mind that last year started off as heading toward El Niño before it surprisingly made an unexpected about face toward a much more favorable for tropical La Niña. I don’t see anywhere near a repeat because the subsurface equatorial Pacific is so much warmer. Also, the Eurosip forecast for ASO of 2018 has much higher SLPs vs what it showed in 2017. Furthermore, the Caribbean shear at this time last year was not as high even though it wasn’t low.
I don't think it will be nearly as favorable as last year but I do think we will again be surprised by the peak of the season with 5 days or less notice that anything is going to happen. El Nino has so far failed to materialize again, so far, but every year is different. This time last year instability in the tropical Atlantic was a lot closer to normal, this year is juuust a bit different.
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M a r k
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Update from Ben Noll on the Euro's velocity forecast he's been posting during the past 2 weeks.
@BenNollWeather
13 August] A major change in the tropical base state looks likely during September.
The pattern looks to become more favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclones, by mid-month, after the suppressed wave fades during the first ten days.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1029147032164786176
@BenNollWeather
13 August] A major change in the tropical base state looks likely during September.
The pattern looks to become more favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclones, by mid-month, after the suppressed wave fades during the first ten days.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1029147032164786176
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Might I add in here, look what's riding along, waiting to fuel anything that comes her way
good ole classic loop eddy
good ole classic loop eddy
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Weekly check on the CFS shows an equally unlikely flip to a 2013 scenario from the high level of activity in the previous map, though it's trended quieter this week. Might see a flip back in the other direction as more favorable conditions approach and as the waters warm, but here's an estimation of the latest run, which would put the season at 15/3/0.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Hammy wrote:Weekly check on the CFS shows an equally unlikely flip to a 2013 scenario from the high level of activity in the previous map, though it's trended quieter this week. Might see a flip back in the other direction as more favorable conditions approach and as the waters warm, but here's an estimation of the latest run, which would put the season at 15/3/0.
Though conditions look similar to 2013 especially the instability east of 60w there is less shear so if something develops shear won’t drive dry air into systems compared with high shear of 2013
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Emmett_Brown wrote:Well, SST's over much of the Atlantic certainly are warm enough for action, assuming atmospheric conditions allow it:
The box from Jamaica to Grand Bahama to west Florida to the Yucatan looks particularly juicy....some spots look like they are edging close to being 90-degree water. A week of mostly high sun around here from the SAL sure isn't going to cool that off any.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Interesting, in another words don't use Tropical Tidbit's CFSR SSTs forecast for now.
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Replying to @CyclonicFury @NDGMETCHEF @philklotzbach
I've mentioned before that something is off with the climatology from CFSR that I'm using for these plots. I've now disabled these until I can figure out why the climatology is too cold.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1029449217515900928
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Replying to @CyclonicFury @NDGMETCHEF @philklotzbach
I've mentioned before that something is off with the climatology from CFSR that I'm using for these plots. I've now disabled these until I can figure out why the climatology is too cold.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1029449217515900928
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
NDG wrote:Interesting, in another words don't use Tropical Tidbit's CFSR SSTs forecast for now.
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Replying to @CyclonicFury @NDGMETCHEF @philklotzbach
I've mentioned before that something is off with the climatology from CFSR that I'm using for these plots. I've now disabled these until I can figure out why the climatology is too cold.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1029449217515900928[tweet]
Eric Webb brought it up about 2 weeks ago. I think it's for the CFS cross section.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
i hear this year we seen more sal and past few year going into aug we going see sal here later this week here in fl untill that totaly leave we wont see strong wave coming out afica i hearing shear been dropping last few weeks that could help wave when sal drop more
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
floridasun78 wrote:i hear this year we seen more sal and past few year going into aug we going see sal here later this week here in fl untill that totaly leave we wont see strong wave coming out afica i hearing shear been dropping last few weeks that could help wave when sal drop more
Usually SAL subsides in mid-late August and it is already beginning to do so.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
I'm having a hard time finding a good site to see the SAL. This was my favorite site but it's down. Any other good sites out there. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=
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hurricanelonny
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Since there's still not much out there or showing up in the models in the short term, another CFS run (excluding systems I'm not sure are tropical or not) as of 00z/Aug 14.
A bit more realistic than the last few runs, at least in the shorter term. Model would indicate 16/3/0 to 16/8/3, assuming 98L develops. One notable trend on this model regardless of activity is that the Gulf and eastern half of the Atlantic seem like the most active regions, with little along the US East Coast or Caribbean.
A bit more realistic than the last few runs, at least in the shorter term. Model would indicate 16/3/0 to 16/8/3, assuming 98L develops. One notable trend on this model regardless of activity is that the Gulf and eastern half of the Atlantic seem like the most active regions, with little along the US East Coast or Caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
HURRICANELONNY wrote:I'm having a hard time finding a good site to see the SAL. This was my favorite site but it's down. Any other good sites out there. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=
I'm having the same issues. Anyone have an alternate to this or a reason why it's been down for a few days?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
https://twitter.com/OceansClimateCU/status/1027594891067457537
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1029045649155796993
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1029092515444535298
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1029433033525346304
https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1029438836093411331
https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1029448531344601089
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1029449217515900928
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1029045649155796993
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1029092515444535298
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1029433033525346304
https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1029438836093411331
https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1029448531344601089
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1029449217515900928
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Would that explain the wild variations with the CFS three month model?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Now this is looking rather favorable basin-wide. #itIsAugust. Shouldn’t be too long before we get some systems spinning up in the MDR once some of the SAL subsides:
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Tropical Atlantic likely to be entering a period of favorable MJO conditions in the next week or so that may extend into the climatological peak of the season.
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