CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Lane continues to stair step to the NW. More pronounced NW movement needs to begin for there to be a direct impact on the Big Island.

[Chris90]

Last eye dropsonde from the NOAA2 mission measured 936mb with 19kts of wind. Pressure now up to about 934mb?
Will have to monitor if this is just a short term fluctuation or the start of a trend. I hope it's the start of a trend.

[Kingarabian]

Moment of truth for the models begins within the next 6 hours:
(Pulled these off WU)

HWRF:


Euro:

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/firebomb56/status/1032128934605778946

It is worth noting that the 00Z intensity was also bumped up to 140 kt from the original 135 kt in best track, validating the previous suspicions that recon supported a category 5 on the previous mission.

[1900hurricane]

Current weakening trend looks like it may be from a nibble of dry air lurking about by the back side.

[Kingarabian]

Current weakening trend looks like it may be from a nibble of dry air lurking about by the back side.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Nh5CfrO.jpg?1[img]

What do you think about the track differences between the GFS and Euro?

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/QDgkxVS

[Bad_Hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/GovHawaii/status/1032197036299313153

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS rolling. Here we go.

[Blown Away]

Lane continues to stair step to the NW. More pronounced NW movement needs to begin for there to be a direct impact on the Big Island.

https://i.imgur.com/4l9SnaB.png

Lane has been missing the forecast track just slightly to the S and W since yesterday... Hopefully these subtle movements will keep Lane far enough away...

[OahuWahine]

Looks like it's still insisting on a Big Island hit.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS through hour 0-24:

[Kingarabian]

Sizable west shift on the 06z GFS:

[Blown Away]

06z GFS, Slight W shift through 36hrs.

[Kingarabian]

Better agreement between the GFS and Euro:

[1900hurricane]

Current weakening trend looks like it may be from a nibble of dry air lurking about by the back side.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Nh5CfrO.jpg?1[img]

What do you think about the track differences between the GFS and Euro?

The GFS remains slightly stronger with the subtle ridge that has built in behind Lane while the ECMWF has slightly lower heights to the west, and I still believe that this or differences in model physics is the primary reason for the difference in the two solutions. The differences really are only slight too, but this is a classic case of only slight differences resulting in drastically different impacts.

[Kingarabian]

06zGFS through hour 60, looks like a NE track towards Maui.

[1900hurricane]

06Z GFS has trended slightly towards the ECMWF wrt the lower heights to Lane's west.

[Kingarabian]

And that's all they're going to agree on for this run:



This looks like a hurricane landfall for Maui. GFS initialized about 30mb too high. So I would tack on a 10-12mb drop to the initial landfall point.

[Twisted-core]

GFS @53hrs
https://imgur.com/0r01I1S