CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[ava_ati]

Actually looks like the west side is recovering from the shear cold cloud top building back up in the last few frames

[SconnieCane]

It took Lane traveling five degrees of longitude to gain one degree of latitude. The right hook needs to start likely within the next couple of hours for a Hawaii impact. Not that this would be a bad thing if it just kept moving WNW, but that's not what the models have been showing.

[boulderrr]

12Z GFS is quite a bit west so far.

Edit: It still has the northeastward bend at 48-54 hours, bringing it very close to Maui.

[Kingarabian]

12Z GFS into Maui again.

CPHC forecast track barely has Maui in the cone...

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS through 60 hours:

[pgoss11]

Isn't the UKMET taking that right hook into the islands too?

[Kingarabian]

Anyone have ther 12z UKMET?

[NotoSans]

Anyone have ther 12z UKMET?

The 12Z UKMET should be out within 20 minutes.

[Alyono]

12Z Canadian doesn't even bring heavy rains to any island

[Ntxw]

[Alyono]

WTNT82 EGRR 221605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 155.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2018 0 15.0N 155.0W 974 66
0000UTC 23.08.2018 12 15.9N 156.4W 967 71
1200UTC 23.08.2018 24 17.1N 157.1W 966 68
0000UTC 24.08.2018 36 18.4N 157.1W 971 65
1200UTC 24.08.2018 48 20.0N 156.8W 994 61
0000UTC 25.08.2018 60 20.6N 158.2W 1004 38
1200UTC 25.08.2018 72 20.1N 159.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 26.08.2018 84 20.2N 160.5W 1006 31
1200UTC 26.08.2018 96 19.9N 162.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 108 20.3N 163.4W 1006 25
1200UTC 27.08.2018 120 20.6N 164.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 28.08.2018 132 20.9N 164.5W 1004 32
1200UTC 28.08.2018 144 21.3N 165.0W 1004 29

[Siker]

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall slowly starting to come into radar range..

[wxman57]

Good video discussion from Levi at Tropical Tidbits this morning:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2018/08/22/wednesday-morning-dangerous-hurricane-lane-approaching-hawaii-hurricane-warnings-and-watches-issued/

I still don't buy the GFS solution. A track about 100 miles west of the Big Island and 80 miles or so SW of Honolulu looks reasonable. This puts the islands in low-end TS winds for the most part, as hurricane force winds only extend out 30-40 miles from the center (at most). Bigger problem for the islands will be prolonged heavy rain as the center parallels the islands on Thu/Fri. Could be over 2 ft of rain on south and eastern slopes of the mountains, all draining down to the coast. Oahu could be hard hit by heavy rain in the mountains north of Mamala Bay (Honolulu area). On the current forecast track, though, Honolulu would see sustained winds in the 35-45 mph range with higher gusts.

[NotoSans]

Looks like it's re-intensifying as per latest satellite imagery.

[Ntxw]

Looks like it's re-intensifying as per latest satellite imagery.

Lane has been defying shear forecasts once he passed 150W

[SunnyThoughts]

My goodness, just when you think the shear is going to weaken the storm, it seems to fight it off and intensify yet again.

[1900hurricane]

DT up to 7.0.

[TheAustinMan]

First morning visible shows the extensive cirrus outflow to the north and the well-defined eye.

1 MB. Source: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[Ntxw]

Do we have a plane going in? It is probably a Cat 5 again.