CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/IanMinnerly/status/1032371437628055552

[Kingarabian]

canadian shifted west, not east

My bad. Was looking at the inner nest. Yes, a subtle change west

[Kingarabian]

That shear axis has been progressing westward as Lane has moved and is still on the move. interesting.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... rjava.html


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... tjava.html

That's what's worrying me. It's been doing that ever since it crossed 150.

[johngaltfla]

 https://twitter.com/IanMinnerly/status/1032371437628055552

In Florida, people go to jail for this. I hope Hawaii has the same laws. Wow, that's insane.

Godspeed to everyone out there.

[Yellow Evan]

That shear axis has been progressing westward as Lane has moved and is still on the move. interesting.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... rjava.html


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... tjava.html

That's what's worrying me. It's been doing that ever since it crossed 150.

Hope all is the best for you, man! Good luck because you'll need it.

[Kingarabian]

That shear axis has been progressing westward as Lane has moved and is still on the move. interesting.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... rjava.html


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... tjava.html

That's what's worrying me. It's been doing that ever since it crossed 150.

Hope all is the best for you, man! Good luck because you'll need it.

Thanks man, and thanks to all of you for the kind wishes and support!

[Kingarabian]

CPHC track shifts east:



18z GFS runs soon.

[Alyono]

the turn is underway now

[tolakram]

Here's the 12Z Euro animation from weather.us



As noted above, rain is going to be the issue with Lane, and a lot of fit.

[tolakram]

HWRF makes landfall but also loses Lane completely 3 hours after landfall.

[supercane4867]

Gaining latitude faster now. Most fatal turn for Hawaii since Iniki.

[johngaltfla]

HWRF makes landfall but also loses Lane completely 3 hours after landfall.

I've been on top of Mauna Kea and while it is one big mountain, I'd be shocked if it shredded it that bad without passing directly overhead.

[tolakram]

HWRF makes landfall but also loses Lane completely 3 hours after landfall.

I've been on top of Mauna Kea and while it is one big mountain, I'd be shocked if it shredded it that bad without passing directly overhead.

Pure speculation on my part but I suspect Lane will be ripped apart by shear and some models just have trouble with that. It may look like Lane makes landfall but it will probably just be the MLC shearing off and moving NE.

Regardless, lots of rain and potential for some high gusts at higher elevation.

[johngaltfla]

HWRF makes landfall but also loses Lane completely 3 hours after landfall.

I've been on top of Mauna Kea and while it is one big mountain, I'd be shocked if it shredded it that bad without passing directly overhead.

Pure speculation on my part but I suspect Lane will be ripped apart by shear and some models just have trouble with that. It may look like Lane makes landfall but it will probably just be the MLC shearing off and moving NE.

I hope you're right. I fear for the good people on the islands out there. And this is not a good situation at all.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS a hair west through 12 hours:

[Bocadude85]

HWRF makes landfall but also loses Lane completely 3 hours after landfall.

I've been on top of Mauna Kea and while it is one big mountain, I'd be shocked if it shredded it that bad without passing directly overhead.

12Z HWRF has a direct hit on Maui, Haleakala would definitely put a pretty good dent in Lane.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS through hour 24:

[Kingarabian]

Deep convection building around the eye now:

[supercane4867]

It seems the GFS is confused with potential topography effects of Big Island on Lane.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS more east and stronger through 36 hours: