2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

What the Euro is showing day 10 in the Bahamas is already marked by the NHC and being discussed in this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119772

[Hammy]

GFS trending towards less instability over the last several runs with the waves also continuing to trend further north and east.

[blp]

GFS trending towards less instability over the last several runs with the waves also continuing to trend further north and east.

I have noticed the same thing today the GFS is pulling back even in the ensembles. However the Euro is even more bullish with the development in 10-15 day range. Let's see who is right. I would put my bet on the Euro.

[wxGuy]

GFS showing 05' like path similar to Katrina, Rita watch the looop

from yesterday

[LarryWx]

12Z ECMWF with a strong area of low pressure near the Cabo Verde islands at 240 hours:

Consistent with the 12Z Euro operational, about 20% of the 50 EPS (~10) members have a TC form in the far E MDR ~Sept. 1 moving W to WNW. 4 of those 10 geneses go down to sub 990 mb (i.e., likely hurricanes). By day 15 (9/5), the TCs are mainly between 40W and 50W with some safely recurving N of 20N while others are still between 15N and 20N moving mainly WNW. None of these were on the 0Z EPS.

The above referenced more active 12Z EPS had gotten my and others’ attention and got Maue and Ventrice to tweet. However, today’s 0Z EPS then had significantly less activity regarding the potential Sept. 1 far E MDR system than what yesterday’s 12Z EPS had. Let’s see what today’s 12Z Euro/EPS shows.

Potential far E MDR Sept. 1 system EPS update:
Today's 12Z EPS, though a bit more active than the 0Z, is not quite as active as yesterday's 12Z EPS when considering intensity/size. Nevertheless, I still found near 10 TC's/4 H's out of ~50 members. All 4 H's recurve east of 45W, however. So, at this point, the run suggests no more than minimal threat to the western basin. Oncoming El Nino seasons have had higher rates of safe recurvature of E MDR systems than non-El Nino seasons. But it is very early and the situation could easily change to more threatening though hopefully it won't.

[stormlover2013]

Ridge looks strong...I don’t see a curved

[Hammy]

GFS back to showing zilch through 288 hours, not even any sort of definable low pressure. The phantom storms have even been pushed back to the end of the run yet again.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS back to showing zilch through 288 hours, not even any sort of definable low pressure. The phantom storms have even been pushed back to the end of the run yet again.

Maybe a case where the GFS could be wrong as it develops nothing within 10days while it seems the Euro does or tries to

[TheStormExpert]

This is starting to sound just like 2013 again. Only this time most are actually expecting a overall dead season for the Atlantic.

[Hammy]

This is starting to sound just like 2013 again. Only this time most are actually expecting a overall dead season for the Atlantic.

2013 at least had some phantom hurricanes to watch

I will say I basically expected this season to be heavily MJO-dependent similar to 2014, but wasn't expecting the pattern to stick in one place like it has which has really put a damper on August activity especially in the deep tropics.

Edit: CFS pushed development back yet again, was originally showing Aug 15th, then 22nd for a few days, then Aug 28 for about the last week, and now it's showing nothing at all before about Sep 4.

[Sciencerocks]

Outside of the subtropics I wouldn't expect any development for the next two weeks.

The dry air cap should kill everything in the mdr and the tropics.

[wxGuy]

hmmmmm

[wxGuy]

3 days in a row showing something coming in Gulf, and hitting coast

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Lots of models now showing the quiet August in the Atlantic reversing into a more active September- keep watching the Tropics as we have a long way to go in the 2018 #hurricane season.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1032602549352841216

[Hammy]

Euro looks weaker on 12z vs 0z with both the end of run low off Africa and the Straits wave.

[stormlover2013]

looks the same to me but the ridge is stout

[gatorcane]

active MDR as shown on GFS on long-range:

[NDG]

GFS is starting to sniff the anticipated better environment coming up for the Atlantic Basin.

[Hammy]

First time we've seen GFS development within the 240H time frame in the MDR if I remember right.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the models it wouldn’t surprise me to.see a burst of 5 named storms within a 15 day period as the models lower pressures and dump the low instability for a moisture rich environment