2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

GFS ensembles remain bullish. Just 5 days from now:

[wxGuy]

[ronjon]

Pretty stout 500 mb ridging setting up over the western Atlantic/Eastern US for the westernmost low pressure in the ECM in both the 00z operational and ensemble run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018082700&fh=240

[Aric Dunn]

That circ just off the African Coast is slowly moving.. looking at the models. appears it will stay rather stationary until the next surge/ wave approaches. It is still looking rather good all by itself.

You can see it quite nicely on TPW.. HIghly likely something comes from this or the combination of this and another wave.

[stormlover2013]

Looks like these waves will get to the Carrib and GOM or the will be fish storms, if I was a betting man the GOM will have 2-3 named storms in sept.

[blp]

Looks like we have consistency on the twin development in MDR.

Euro:


GFS


CMC

[chris_fit]

Yea, that is some pretty good agreement between various models. Kinda ominous looking to be honest.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else notice the Euro and GFS have something potentially developing in the western atlantic and gulf? GFS into florida the EUro farther south and does not develop till gulf. small and weak but worth watching..


Also just randomly noticed a nice Pouch on the TPW Cruising west few hundred miles north of PR and DR. models dont do much with it. but convection has increased this morning and there is some weak circ/vorticity. also worth watching.

[Bocadude85]

Anyone else notice the Euro and GFS have something potentially developing in the western atlantic and gulf? GFS into florida the EUro farther south and does not develop till gulf. small and weak but worth watching..


Also just randomly noticed a nice Pouch on the TPW Cruising west few hundred miles north of PR and DR. models dont do much with it. but convection has increased this morning and there is some weak circ/vorticity. also worth watching.

Yes I saw that on the model runs this morning, very weak but definitely worth watching. GFS is into central Florida and Euro is through the straits and into the GOM, split the difference and we could be looking at a weak TS hitting S.Fla and then heading into the GOM.

[BobHarlem]

The German Icon model has something forming east of the Bahamas in two days.

[blp]

Anyone else notice the Euro and GFS have something potentially developing in the western atlantic and gulf? GFS into florida the EUro farther south and does not develop till gulf. small and weak but worth watching..


Also just randomly noticed a nice Pouch on the TPW Cruising west few hundred miles north of PR and DR. models dont do much with it. but convection has increased this morning and there is some weak circ/vorticity. also worth watching.

[]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/conus/mimictpw_conus_latest.gif[/img]

[https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/dynamic/GOES13172018239QNrhOQ.jpg[/img]

Aric, we have been following that wave in the thread for the Lesser Antilles. It has been showing potential for several days.

[NDG]

The German Icon model has something forming east of the Bahamas in two days.

I just started a new thread on the vorticity you and Aric pointed out earlier this morning.

[gatorcane]

The GFS again going with development near the Cabo Verde islands within 5 days. The model has shifted south with the track. Time for the NHC to mention this area:

[cycloneye]

I made a thread for the Tropical Wave that models develop so post the runs over there.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119793&p=2694332#p2694332

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS not really enthusiastic... couple lack luster TS that die off or get curved out to sea

[wxGuy]

Looks like these waves will get to the Carrib and GOM or the will be fish storms, if I was a betting man the GOM will have 2-3 named storms in sept.

me and you both bullish on a gom storm

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS not really enthusiastic... couple lack luster TS that die off or get curved out to sea

Bla...yep few likely sheared systems recurving into open Atlantic. It’s been a quite one that’s for sure enjoying it to after last yrs season.

[galaxy401]

12Z GFS not really enthusiastic... couple lack luster TS that die off or get curved out to sea

Bla...yep few likely sheared systems recurving into open Atlantic. It’s been a quite one that’s for sure enjoying it to after last yrs season.

12Z GFS runs are the only ones that don't show much development. All the other runs are more enthusiastic.

[toad strangler]

12Z GFS not really enthusiastic... couple lack luster TS that die off or get curved out to sea

Bla...yep few likely sheared systems recurving into open Atlantic. It’s been a quite one that’s for sure enjoying it to after last yrs season.

Not me. I want them lined up like 5PM flights into O'Hare. Oh well.

[chris_fit]

Is it just me or did CMC model stop at 128 hours for the 12z run?