Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn’t be so quick to write this off in the Gulf. First off the 12z Euro once again sends it quickly into the SE Louisiana coast right as it gets going, it also looks to keep a well-defined signature as it heads west inland towards SE Texas. Secondly the Instability in the Gulf has been above average since the beginning of May. Then there is the warm mid-upper 80’s bath water (SST’s) that are currently present. So that leaves limited time over water and wind shear as the two possible inhibitors.

 https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1034827423244857344

[stormlover2013]

CP17 where u from

SE TX. Looking like lots of rain coming for my area over the next week or two.

Same here in SETX. Harveyland.

Same here we all from SETX lol

[stormlover2013]

The 12Z EPS has many fewer sub 999 mb TCs among its 51 members: only 4 vs 11 on the 0Z EPS. So, an overall bearish Euro suite trend at 12Z fwiw.

post image

[jlauderdal]

been wet all week, rains every 6-8 hours with showers and tstorms coming in from the ATL

[tarheelprogrammer]

I wouldn’t be so quick to write this off in the Gulf. First off the 12z Euro once again sends it quickly into the SE Louisiana coast right as it gets going, it also looks to keep a well-defined signature as it heads west inland towards SE Texas. Secondly the Instability in the Gulf has been above average since the beginning of May. Then there is the warm mid-upper 80’s bath water (SST’s) that are currently present. So that leaves limited time over water and wind shear as the two possible inhibitors.

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1034827423244857344

In terms of negatives Wind Shear is the top dog though. Without favorable shear environments these systems struggle to get going. It is what tears apart storms. June in the GOM the past decade is a good example of this. All the warmest waters and instability in the world cannot overcome shear issues. It is still 5 days away so shear forecasts could be off by quite a bit I am sure, but if shear is high this system will struggle to get to TS strength. IMHO.

[TheStormExpert]

It could get quite rainy across South Florida...

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/08/29/wow.png

been wet all week, rains every 6-8 hours with showers and tstorms coming in from the ATL

Yes the last several days have been more unstable than usual across coastal Palm Beach County at least. Though overall since early-mid June it’s been more on the drier side of things. We could use the rain again after the May deluge as the ponds and lawn are slowly drying up some.

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn’t be so quick to write this off in the Gulf. First off the 12z Euro once again sends it quickly into the SE Louisiana coast right as it gets going, it also looks to keep a well-defined signature as it heads west inland towards SE Texas. Secondly the Instability in the Gulf has been above average since the beginning of May. Then there is the warm mid-upper 80’s bath water (SST’s) that are currently present. So that leaves limited time over water and wind shear as the two possible inhibitors.

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1034827423244857344

In terms of negatives Wind Shear is the top dog though. Without favorable shear environments these systems struggle to get going. It is what tears apart storms. June in the GOM the past decade is a good example of this. All the warmest waters and instability in the world cannot overcome shear issues. It is still 5 days away so shear forecasts could be off by quite a bit I am sure, but if shear is high this system will struggle to get to TS strength. IMHO.

Overall wind shear has been below normal in the Gulf as of recent.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12Z EPS has many fewer sub 999 mb TCs among its 51 members: only 4 vs 11 on the 0Z EPS. So, an overall bearish Euro suite trend at 12Z fwiw.

post image

[jlauderdal]

we have another round inbound now, had a round this morning and last night..feels more like june than august

[SoupBone]

I wouldn’t be so quick to write this off in the Gulf. First off the 12z Euro once again sends it quickly into the SE Louisiana coast right as it gets going, it also looks to keep a well-defined signature as it heads west inland towards SE Texas. Secondly the Instability in the Gulf has been above average since the beginning of May. Then there is the warm mid-upper 80’s bath water (SST’s) that are currently present. So that leaves limited time over water and wind shear as the two possible inhibitors.

In terms of negatives Wind Shear is the top dog though. Without favorable shear environments these systems struggle to get going. It is what tears apart storms. June in the GOM the past decade is a good example of this. All the warmest waters and instability in the world cannot overcome shear issues. It is still 5 days away so shear forecasts could be off by quite a bit I am sure, but if shear is high this system will struggle to get to TS strength. IMHO.

Cue the shear map! Shear, for now, is favorable in most of the GoM, though we all know how quickly that can change. Like I said earlier, I've been watching it for a while now, and it's moved all over the place, and quickly too.

[Wakeknight]

been wet all week, rains every 6-8 hours with showers and tstorms coming in from the ATL

Yes the last several days have been more unstable than usual across coastal Palm Beach County at least. Though overall since early-mid June it’s been more on the drier side of things. We could use the rain again after the May deluge as the ponds and lawn are slowly drying up some.

we have another round inbound now, had a round this morning and last night..feels more like june than august

Here in Sarasota we have had a dry summer; our normal afternoon summer storm pattern settled in much later that usual.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS has many fewer sub 999 mb TCs among its 51 members: only 4 vs 11 on the 0Z EPS. So, an overall bearish Euro suite trend at 12Z fwiw.

http://i67.tinypic.com/drfo76.jpg

Thanks for posting. For those who may be confused, this image shows that there are far fewer TS+s (blue/orange) on this 12Z EPS vs the 0Z EPS. Note that the vast majority of the ones on this image are only green/TD strength. Note that this 12Z does have one H (into TX), a cat 2. Neither the 0Z nor any earlier run had any cat 2+.

[stormlover2013]

if anything scoots all the away across the GOM mark it down it will be stronger than a trop storm

[Cpv17]

if anything scoots all the away across the GOM mark it down it will be stronger than a trop storm

Depends on shear.

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis. Wave moving more slowly as axis is still in Leewards.

[jlauderdal]

if anything scoots all the away across the GOM mark it down it will be stronger than a trop storm

if it scoots it wont have time to develop into a cane..

[stormlover2013]

Humberto didn’t have to scoot

[MGC]

This time of year all potential disturbances must be closely monitored. Things can spin up in the gulf quickly.....MGC

[Hammy]

GFS seems like it's been trending stronger today.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has the max vorticity going into the San Antonio Bay area late next week. This would bring a lot of rain to SETX and probably Louisiana as well.