Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

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mcheer23
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#741 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:52 am

Lastest Euro drops 30 inches over my house in Sugar Land........
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#742 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:54 am

mcheer23 wrote:Lastest Euro drops 30 inches over my house in Sugar Land........

About the same here in Wharton
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#743 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:58 am

RGEM also joining the EURO on Florida Straits development of this wave. I've gotta think NHC raises it's 8:00 a.m. TWO development odds to at least 20/40
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#744 Postby catskillfire51 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:13 am

mcheer23 wrote:Lastest Euro drops 30 inches over my house in Sugar Land........


What about South of Houston? I am in Lake Jackson.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#745 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:14 am

Going to sleep after the 06z NAM. It’s also got this system in range at 33 hours. So far, big rains for Houston midday Sunday from first disturbance. Slow moving big line of cells (@ 31-35 hours and counting on the NAM link)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0106&fh=35
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#746 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:15 am

catskillfire51 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:Lastest Euro drops 30 inches over my house in Sugar Land........


What about South of Houston? I am in Lake Jackson.


Shows about 15-20” for your area.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#747 Postby gulf701 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:35 am

I assume this is the same low being discussed.
Tallahassee, NWS discussion:.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The tropical wave will be in the Gulf, south-southwest of the FL
panhandle, by Tuesday morning. Aloft, this will have a deep layer
southeast flow along it with plenty of moisture streaming into
the area. Even with the low south of New Orleans by 8PM Tuesday
night, there will be enough broad lift behind it to sustain
widespread showers and thunderstorms once again. As well, the wind
field will increase with this system, mostly Monday night into
Tuesday. Gusts over the waters could reach 20-25mph but only
around 10-15mph on land, given the system is out over the ocean.
Therefore, the highest threat with this system will continue to be
heavy rainfall. However, with such a fast moving system and the
rain concentrated more in the afternoon/peak heating, total
rainfall amounts are still less than 2 inches over land. This will
need to be monitored though in case the track of the tropical
waves moves farther north.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#748 Postby drezee » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:54 am

How soon we forget.. screaming eagle look is almost always a precursor to development....when moving into a more favorable pattern. Model worship aside...
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#749 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:08 am

00z ECMWF has my attention regarding the TW near Hispaniola - definitely worth watching as we progress through the weekend.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1035773751701516288


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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#750 Postby AJC3 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:13 am

The upper level winds producing upper tropospheric shear over this wave are strongly divergent...

Image

Image

And the global models show strong divergence accompanying this wave as it makes its CPA to Florida and then continues into the GOMEX. Here's what the 250MB divergence prog looks like for midday Monday. Favors big time enhancement of the convective pattern over Florida, especially during the day.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#751 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:58 am

THIS IS FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW US CLOSELY AND REMEMBER OUR TWEET "GULF OF HONDURAS THE WILD CARD" NOT TRYING TO HYPE BUT LOOKING AT REAL-TIME VERSES 00Z EURO I HATE TO SAY IT BUT A HURRICANE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT JUST SAYIN EURO SHOWS TROPICAL STORM IN 72HRS

 https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1035818607442382848


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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#752 Postby JPmia » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:06 am

Let’s not forget the classic path from South Florida to LA this represents either. Those model runs are very concerning.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#753 Postby Dylan » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:20 am

0z European is much more aggressive, sending a 985mb category 1 right up the mouth of the river on Wednesday. Looks a little slower too, which is a possible explanation.

What's more interesting is that it doesn't seen as fluky, because the EURO ensemble members are also more aggressive, with a 70% probability of a tropical depression, and a 45-50% chance of a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Not the trend you want to see. Lets see if the 12z guidance becomes more consistent.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#754 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:40 am

06Z GFS.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#755 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:42 am

cycloneye wrote:06Z GFS.

Image


Way different from the Euro.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#756 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:52 am

Cpv17 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:06Z GFS.

Image


Way different from the Euro.



Wonder if gfs is right?
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#757 Postby Airboy » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:55 am

Looking at sat image it looks like it have a more hints of rotation to it last couple of hours.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#758 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:02 am

06Z RGEM high resolution model shows a potential organizing tropical depression or storm passing through the Florida keys. In addition to incredible amounts of moisture streaming into New Orleans, South East Texas, and Mississippi way ahead of this system.

All of this in the next 54 Hour time frame
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of Hispañola

#759 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:03 am

I wonder what the key is for development vs not? If this happens then yet another example of no clear signal (development or intensity) until less than 5 days away.
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Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean / West Atlantic

#760 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:07 am

0Z Euro has 984MB as the low. This is one frame later.

Image

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/louisiana/sea-level-pressure/20180905-1200z.html
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