Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[mcheer23]

Lastest Euro drops 30 inches over my house in Sugar Land........

[Cpv17]

Lastest Euro drops 30 inches over my house in Sugar Land........

About the same here in Wharton

[chaser1]

RGEM also joining the EURO on Florida Straits development of this wave. I've gotta think NHC raises it's 8:00 a.m. TWO development odds to at least 20/40

[catskillfire51]

Lastest Euro drops 30 inches over my house in Sugar Land........

What about South of Houston? I am in Lake Jackson.

[Steve]

Going to sleep after the 06z NAM. It’s also got this system in range at 33 hours. So far, big rains for Houston midday Sunday from first disturbance. Slow moving big line of cells (@ 31-35 hours and counting on the NAM link)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0106&fh=35

[Cpv17]

Lastest Euro drops 30 inches over my house in Sugar Land........

What about South of Houston? I am in Lake Jackson.

Shows about 15-20” for your area.

[gulf701]

I assume this is the same low being discussed.
Tallahassee, NWS discussion:.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The tropical wave will be in the Gulf, south-southwest of the FL
panhandle, by Tuesday morning. Aloft, this will have a deep layer
southeast flow along it with plenty of moisture streaming into
the area. Even with the low south of New Orleans by 8PM Tuesday
night, there will be enough broad lift behind it to sustain
widespread showers and thunderstorms once again. As well, the wind
field will increase with this system, mostly Monday night into
Tuesday. Gusts over the waters could reach 20-25mph but only
around 10-15mph on land, given the system is out over the ocean.
Therefore, the highest threat with this system will continue to be
heavy rainfall. However, with such a fast moving system and the
rain concentrated more in the afternoon/peak heating, total
rainfall amounts are still less than 2 inches over land. This will
need to be monitored though in case the track of the tropical
waves moves farther north.

[drezee]

How soon we forget.. screaming eagle look is almost always a precursor to development....when moving into a more favorable pattern. Model worship aside...

[Clearcloudz]

00z ECMWF has my attention regarding the TW near Hispaniola - definitely worth watching as we progress through the weekend.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1035773751701516288

[AJC3]

The upper level winds producing upper tropospheric shear over this wave are strongly divergent...





And the global models show strong divergence accompanying this wave as it makes its CPA to Florida and then continues into the GOMEX. Here's what the 250MB divergence prog looks like for midday Monday. Favors big time enhancement of the convective pattern over Florida, especially during the day.

[Clearcloudz]

THIS IS FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW US CLOSELY AND REMEMBER OUR TWEET "GULF OF HONDURAS THE WILD CARD" NOT TRYING TO HYPE BUT LOOKING AT REAL-TIME VERSES 00Z EURO I HATE TO SAY IT BUT A HURRICANE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT JUST SAYIN EURO SHOWS TROPICAL STORM IN 72HRS

 https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1035818607442382848

[JPmia]

Let’s not forget the classic path from South Florida to LA this represents either. Those model runs are very concerning.

[Dylan]

0z European is much more aggressive, sending a 985mb category 1 right up the mouth of the river on Wednesday. Looks a little slower too, which is a possible explanation.

What's more interesting is that it doesn't seen as fluky, because the EURO ensemble members are also more aggressive, with a 70% probability of a tropical depression, and a 45-50% chance of a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Not the trend you want to see. Lets see if the 12z guidance becomes more consistent.

[cycloneye]

06Z GFS.

[Cpv17]

06Z GFS.

Way different from the Euro.

[stormlover2013]

06Z GFS.

Way different from the Euro.

Wonder if gfs is right?

[Airboy]

Looking at sat image it looks like it have a more hints of rotation to it last couple of hours.

[Clearcloudz]

06Z RGEM high resolution model shows a potential organizing tropical depression or storm passing through the Florida keys. In addition to incredible amounts of moisture streaming into New Orleans, South East Texas, and Mississippi way ahead of this system.

All of this in the next 54 Hour time frame

[tolakram]

I wonder what the key is for development vs not? If this happens then yet another example of no clear signal (development or intensity) until less than 5 days away.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro has 984MB as the low. This is one frame later.



source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/louisiana/sea-level-pressure/20180905-1200z.html