Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[storminabox]

We have 50 pages on a wave that’s not even an invest yet

Is that a new record?

Edit: never mind, I just read Cycloneyes post

[cycloneye]

Who predicted 20/50?

A peep that is a moderator.

[blp]

20%/50%

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and
central Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and adjacent
Atlantic waters are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. This activity is expected to move
west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas and south
Florida during the next day or so and little, if any, development
is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for development when the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico, where a tropical depression could form during the early to
middle part of next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains
are likely across much of the Bahamas and southern Florida during
the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast
office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d1.png[/img]

Seems like they are late on this system. Should be higher.

[Ian2401]

Shear on the decline over the disturbance

[Kazmit]

Still not an invest yet? Is it gonna end up skipping it completely and go straight to TC status?

[Cpv17]

Just an observation I’ve made, but there’s an area of disturbed weather over the Gulf right now that’s supposed to go into Texas over the next couple days. If the pattern stays the same, wouldn’t this disturbance work it’s way in that direction as well?

[chaser1]

Who predicted 20/50?

Wait.....
"I'm guessing NHC will up their percentages to 20/50? If it were my call, I'd probably go with 30%/50%"

I think mine was around 4:00ish? Did CycloneEye beat me to it? Do I at least get 10% of the $250,000

[tailgater]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals for anyone that wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

We really need a dislike button or thumbs down That rainfall total map looks like what we went through 2 years ago.

[SoupBone]

12Z ECMWF rainfall totals for anyone that wants to see it.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090112/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180909-1200z.html

We really need a dislike button or thumbs down That rainfall total map looks like what we went through 2 years ago.

Did you look at the San Antonio to Houston totals as well?

[Steve]

Just an observation I’ve made, but there’s an area of disturbed weather over the Gulf right now that’s supposed to go into Texas over the next couple days. If the pattern stays the same, wouldn’t this disturbance work it’s way in that direction as well?

Possible. The flow has been out of the SE and ESE. But the mid-Atlantic ridge isn’t fully circular as it rotates. So there are pieces parts and atmospheric turbulence and mixing that come into contact with it so as it spins, there are nooks and jut outs along the periphery. Also since it’s in motion and pulsing rather than just being stationary, there is give and take. If it were just basically stationary, the flow would be consistent for a while. But since it’s in flux moreso than say a month(s) long semi-permanent ridge, its periphery may allow for some southerly, southeasterly or east southeasterly flow.

[NDG]

So in another words, they are only giving the GFS & Euro a 50% chance coming to fruition with both models showing at least a TD making landfall in less than 4 days

[SoupBone]

So in another words, they are only giving the GFS & Euro a 50% chance coming to fruition with both models showing at least a TD making landfall in less than 4 days

I'm obviously no pro, but does declaring an invest free up additional forecasting/data gathering resources (like recon)? If it does, it seems like this whole setup could benefit from having it declared. If not, then it really doesn't matter I guess. Where's all the pros that usually post here?

So far, I only see Dylan.

[tolakram]

So in another words, they are only giving the GFS & Euro a 50% chance coming to fruition with both models showing at least a TD making landfall in less than 4 days

I'm obviously no pro, but does declaring an invest free up additional forecasting/data gathering resources (like recon)? If it does, it seems like this whole setup could benefit from having it declared.

An invest may have been declared already and we don't know it per the change made 2 years ago. We won't know until a best track file is created.

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/yWtun5e.png
Shear on the decline over the disturbance

That looks like a good environment for this to organize through the Bahamas as shear is decreasing over the LLC that is forming and convection is blossoming which may build an anti-cyclone on top.

Models might just be undergoing things we will see.

[sphelps8681]

So in another words, they are only giving the GFS & Euro a 50% chance coming to fruition with both models showing at least a TD making landfall in less than 4 days

I'm obviously no pro, but does declaring an invest free up additional forecasting/data gathering resources (like recon)? If it does, it seems like this whole setup could benefit from having it declared. If not, then it really doesn't matter I guess. Where's all the pros that usually post here?

So far, I only see Dylan.

Maybe it is more complicated and they don't want to post until it starts to develop. My local met said today we could possibly see a TS or Hurricane of course that is a maybe.

[northjaxpro]

I think that process is well underway. Confitions are getting better and better with time for development.

[cycloneye]

So in another words, they are only giving the GFS & Euro a 50% chance coming to fruition with both models showing at least a TD making landfall in less than 4 days

I'm obviously no pro, but does declaring an invest free up additional forecasting/data gathering resources (like recon)? If it does, it seems like this whole setup could benefit from having it declared.

An invest may have been declared already and we don't know it per the change made 2 years ago. We won't know until a best track file is created.

Yes.They many times do tests of Best Track files but are only tests like 75L,76L, 80L-81L etc.When you see the 90,s show up then here we go with the designation.

[gatorcane]

Floater loop. Looks like the spin is getting going with convection all around it. Is it me or does the shear not look that bad?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

I'm obviously no pro, but does declaring an invest free up additional forecasting/data gathering resources (like recon)? If it does, it seems like this whole setup could benefit from having it declared.

An invest may have been declared already and we don't know it per the change made 2 years ago. We won't know until a best track file is created.

Yes.They many time do tests of Best Track files but are only tests like 75L,76L, 80L-81L etc.When you see the 90,s show up then here we go with the designation.

Here is an example of how a invest gets the designation.This was 99L from earlier this season.Look how they changed from test to operational. In this case it was 79L and changed to 99L.So they are right now on that process. genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al792018 to al992018

[Frank P]

Floater loop. Looks like the spin is getting going with convection all around it. Is it me or does the shear not look that bad?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

shear of no shear that is quite an impressive tropical wave!