ATL: GORDON - Models
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ATL: GORDON - Models
Models only.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: 91L - Models
SHIP up to Hurricane in first run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
0Z Euro
6Z GFS
6Z GFS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
SHIPS basically shows that when it gets in GOM not much problem with shear, will work in a very rich moist environment and near 30C SSTs
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912018 09/02/18 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 57 60 64 65 66 65
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 57 42 32 28 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 25 29 35 43 36 29 28 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 8 12 12 7 7 8 10 18 15 14 11 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -7 -6 -4 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -5 -2
SHEAR DIR 305 266 261 279 303 265 310 291 307 310 351 328 341
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.4 27.7 26.8 25.9 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 161 167 171 173 173 167 159 132 120 111 103
ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 150 156 159 164 162 150 136 110 98 92 87
200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -54.8 -54.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -55.0 -54.7 -55.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 7 10 4 7 0
700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 60 62 63 62 62 59 61 65 70 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 11 9 9 8 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -22 -21 -35 -33 -21 -57 -57 -90 -39 -18 -2 1
200 MB DIV 11 15 2 -6 13 14 -4 20 13 6 -8 35 15
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 2 4 -2 6 14 6 11 4 6 3
LAND (KM) 89 105 94 120 129 96 250 112 -123 -300 -434 -558 -713
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.1 25.6 27.4 29.4 31.5 33.1 34.3 35.4 36.8
LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.5 77.6 78.8 80.0 82.6 85.3 87.7 89.2 90.0 90.4 90.7 90.7
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 14 11 7 5 6 8
HEAT CONTENT 43 49 58 48 41 32 34 22 7 7 7 7 7
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Now the GFS is stronger with 91L, per the latest 06z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
NDG wrote:SHIPS basically shows that when it gets in GOM not much problem with shear, will work in a very rich moist environment and near 30C SSTsCode: Select all
* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912018 09/02/18 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 57 60 64 65 66 65
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 57 42 32 28 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 25 29 35 43 36 29 28 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 8 12 12 7 7 8 10 18 15 14 11 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -7 -6 -4 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -5 -2
SHEAR DIR 305 266 261 279 303 265 310 291 307 310 351 328 341
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.4 27.7 26.8 25.9 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 161 167 171 173 173 167 159 132 120 111 103
ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 150 156 159 164 162 150 136 110 98 92 87
200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -54.8 -54.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -55.0 -54.7 -55.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 7 10 4 7 0
700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 60 62 63 62 62 59 61 65 70 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 11 9 9 8 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -22 -21 -35 -33 -21 -57 -57 -90 -39 -18 -2 1
200 MB DIV 11 15 2 -6 13 14 -4 20 13 6 -8 35 15
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 2 4 -2 6 14 6 11 4 6 3
LAND (KM) 89 105 94 120 129 96 250 112 -123 -300 -434 -558 -713
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.1 25.6 27.4 29.4 31.5 33.1 34.3 35.4 36.8
LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.5 77.6 78.8 80.0 82.6 85.3 87.7 89.2 90.0 90.4 90.7 90.7
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 14 11 7 5 6 8
HEAT CONTENT 43 49 58 48 41 32 34 22 7 7 7 7 7
Actually not much shear the next 60 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Hour 66, Louisiana/Mississippi landfall...or very close to that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12Z GFS a little weaker
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
tolakram wrote:12Z GFS a little weaker
The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
SoupBone wrote:tolakram wrote:12Z GFS a little weaker
The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.
It still shoots north quickly. We'll have to see which model has a better handle on the upper air pattern.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
SoupBone wrote:tolakram wrote:12Z GFS a little weaker
The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.
It looks like it heads into Missippii and Arkansas fairly quickly to me, doesn't go toward Texas at all. (12Z GFS today)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
tolakram wrote:SoupBone wrote:tolakram wrote:12Z GFS a little weaker
The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.
It still shoots north quickly. We'll have to see which model has a better handle on the upper air pattern.
I've asked this, but do you know what models typically perform better with upper air modeling? Or at least a reference to view the various runs?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
SoupBone wrote:tolakram wrote:SoupBone wrote:
The end of that run takes a similar path to the Euro, taking it toward the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then south toward Houston, then up and out.
It still shoots north quickly. We'll have to see which model has a better handle on the upper air pattern.
I've asked this, but do you know what models typically perform better with upper air modeling? Or at least a reference to view the various runs?
Well. Euro usually, remember the GFS sending Harvey to Brownsville run after run. GFS does very well in a higher shear environment though, so .... shrug
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Question for the mets: Could the low currently just south of the Tx/La border effect the high schedule to build over SE US? Provided the low lingers a while. I'm not certain I asked the question correctly but I think you get the jest of it.
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- Clearcloudz
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
12Z UKMET Total Precipitation Map to Hour 144 (has calmed down compared to 00Z run)
https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2018090212/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180908-1200z.html
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&type=PR&lang=en&map=na&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2018090212/usa/acc-total-precipitation/20180908-1200z.html
http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&type=PR&lang=en&map=na&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
mcheer23 wrote:euro weaker through 48hr....
Respectfully, do you know why? Current trends and conditions do not seem to support the EC...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Shell Mound wrote:mcheer23 wrote:euro weaker through 48hr....
Respectfully, do you know why? Current trends and conditions do not seem to support the EC...
On the other thread someone said the Euro probably initialized this too weak and that could be because of the compact size. Doesn’t mean the end result is necessarily wrong but it could certainly have implications on final intensity/landfall.
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