ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#381 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:14 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Monster ridge at 120-126

Going to be a close call on this run because it’s literally at the fork in the road
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#382 Postby artist » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#383 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:18 pm

The intensity on the 0zGFS seem quite ridiculous, it’s not going to be a cat 5 east of Bermuda
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#384 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:21 pm

0z GFS heading due W towards Bermuda.

Image


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#385 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:21 pm

The GFS is moving west after 150hrs, seems to have joined the other models, we may have to start looking at possible landfall areas
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#386 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:22 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:0z GFS heading due W towards Bermuda.

Image


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The thing I can tell you is I can guarantee you this won’t be a cat 5 near Bermuda
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#387 Postby JaxGator » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:23 pm

At 150-168hrs it seems to head west under a strengthening ridge and the door to escape seems to close. Heading towards Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#388 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:24 pm

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1036829116501315584


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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#389 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:24 pm

There's that huge blocking ridge that the FV3 showed....
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#390 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:25 pm

:uarrow: It is just the gfs being goofy with its way too low pressures. Remember those runs of Irma being in the 890s off the Carolinas?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#391 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:27 pm

The 12zEuro track may not be that ridiculous afterall
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#392 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:28 pm

Trend GFS
Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#393 Postby StormyWaters93 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:29 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Trend GFS
Image
I was just going to ask if someone could post an animated trend. Thanks!

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#394 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:30 pm

artist wrote:Image


So models are starting to have a problem seeing this getting over 30N, they are all stopping right around it and some are staying South of it and continue West, not looking good.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#395 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:30 pm

The trend is certainly NOT OUR FRIEND here.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#396 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:30 pm

This is recurving but not before giving Bermuda a pretty significant hit on the weaker side of the storm.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#397 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:32 pm

LarryWx wrote:This is recurving but not before giving Bermuda a pretty significant hit on the weaker side of the storm.


I don't see a recurve in the playing cards here.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#398 Postby JaxGator » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:33 pm

LarryWx wrote:This is recurving but not before giving Bermuda a pretty significant hit on the weaker side of the storm.


Not liking the trend here. Does the ridge weaken/retreat or does Florence plow through it on this run?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#399 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:35 pm

If it’s weaker than what the GFS is showing a I can guarantee you it will be then the Euro and GFS parallel may be a distinct possibility in terms of track
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#400 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:39 pm

Image

FV3 trend, notice the ridging and trough.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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