ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#381 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:14 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Monster ridge at 120-126

Going to be a close call on this run because it’s literally at the fork in the road
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#382 Postby artist » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#383 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:18 pm

The intensity on the 0zGFS seem quite ridiculous, it’s not going to be a cat 5 east of Bermuda
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#384 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:21 pm

0z GFS heading due W towards Bermuda.

Image


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#385 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:21 pm

The GFS is moving west after 150hrs, seems to have joined the other models, we may have to start looking at possible landfall areas
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#386 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:22 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:0z GFS heading due W towards Bermuda.

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The thing I can tell you is I can guarantee you this won’t be a cat 5 near Bermuda
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#387 Postby JaxGator » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:23 pm

At 150-168hrs it seems to head west under a strengthening ridge and the door to escape seems to close. Heading towards Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#388 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:24 pm

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#389 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:24 pm

There's that huge blocking ridge that the FV3 showed....
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#390 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:25 pm

:uarrow: It is just the gfs being goofy with its way too low pressures. Remember those runs of Irma being in the 890s off the Carolinas?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#391 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:27 pm

The 12zEuro track may not be that ridiculous afterall
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#392 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:28 pm

Trend GFS
Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#393 Postby StormyWaters93 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:29 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Trend GFS
Image
I was just going to ask if someone could post an animated trend. Thanks!

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#394 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:30 pm

artist wrote:Image


So models are starting to have a problem seeing this getting over 30N, they are all stopping right around it and some are staying South of it and continue West, not looking good.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#395 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:30 pm

The trend is certainly NOT OUR FRIEND here.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#396 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:30 pm

This is recurving but not before giving Bermuda a pretty significant hit on the weaker side of the storm.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#397 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:32 pm

LarryWx wrote:This is recurving but not before giving Bermuda a pretty significant hit on the weaker side of the storm.


I don't see a recurve in the playing cards here.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#398 Postby JaxGator » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:33 pm

LarryWx wrote:This is recurving but not before giving Bermuda a pretty significant hit on the weaker side of the storm.


Not liking the trend here. Does the ridge weaken/retreat or does Florence plow through it on this run?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#399 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:35 pm

If it’s weaker than what the GFS is showing a I can guarantee you it will be then the Euro and GFS parallel may be a distinct possibility in terms of track
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#400 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:39 pm

Image

FV3 trend, notice the ridging and trough.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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