ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Audrey2Katrina
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4252
Age: 75
Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2005 10:39 pm
Location: Metaire, La.

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1521 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:17 pm

Javlin wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Note that the NHC advisory has the center west of the convection. We think it's about 25-35 miles east of their position. Don't see 60 kts anywhere, but they won't indicate any weakening for a landfalling storm so the public won't take it too lightly. I still think 45kts, 50 kts max now.


Well WM57 if it gets close like Nate last year I let you know if it's a cane or a TS.I laughed at Nate as a so called cane all I saw an I am 1/3 mile from the beach(Biloxi) was ts force winds and when it passed I went what?


And I STILL can't figure out how Nate got its name "retired" .. it's intensity was never lower than 981 mb, highest winds were 91 mph (and I know all about Allison... Allison was many times worse than Nate)... It just blew my mind that they retired it. Was it that it was the fastest moving storm in the GOM? Total damage at about half a billion. Death toll 48.. ANY death is a tragedy, but some storms that remain unretired had higher than that one did. Maybe one of the pro mets can help me figure that one out.
0 likes   
Flossy 56 Audrey 57 Hilda 64* Betsy 65* Camille 69* Edith 71 Carmen 74 Bob 79 Danny 85 Elena 85 Juan 85 Florence 88 Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21 Francine *24

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1522 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:19 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Javlin wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Note that the NHC advisory has the center west of the convection. We think it's about 25-35 miles east of their position. Don't see 60 kts anywhere, but they won't indicate any weakening for a landfalling storm so the public won't take it too lightly. I still think 45kts, 50 kts max now.


Well WM57 if it gets close like Nate last year I let you know if it's a cane or a TS.I laughed at Nate as a so called cane all I saw an I am 1/3 mile from the beach(Biloxi) was ts force winds and when it passed I went what?


And I STILL can't figure out how Nate got its name "retired" .. it's intensity was never lower than 981 mb, highest winds were 91 mph (and I know all about Allison... Allison was many times worse than Nate)... It just blew my mind that they retired it. Was it that it was the fastest moving storm in the GOM? Total damage at about half a billion. Death toll 48.. ANY death is a tragedy, but some storms that remain unretired had higher than that one did. Maybe one of the pro mets can help me figure that one out.


There's no threshhold death toll number, and the retirement was at the request of Costa Rica I believe, as it was one of their worst natural disasters.
2 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1523 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:21 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
And I STILL can't figure out how Nate got its name "retired" .. it's intensity was never lower than 981 mb, highest winds were 91 mph (and I know all about Allison... Allison was many times worse than Nate)... It just blew my mind that they retired it. Was it that it was the fastest moving storm in the GOM? Total damage at about half a billion. Death toll 48.. ANY death is a tragedy, but some storms that remain unretired had higher than that one did. Maybe one of the pro mets can help me figure that one out.


Nate was retired for its impacts (deaths and damage) to Central America. The U.S. didn't request its name be retired, as far as I know.

Mobile sea buoy winds are dropping now as the center approaches. Peak measured sustained 1-min wind between 50-55 mph).
3 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1524 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:21 pm

The center, according to radar, is due south of Baldwin County, Alabama, and on a much more westerly course now. I was thinking AL landfall earlier, but it's starting to trend back towards Mississippi according to radar. As I mentioned earlier, a few higher resolution models showed this movement.
2 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1525 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:23 pm

well to me its looking a little better on the radar loops, sure hints that it might have worked out its stacking issue.. last few frames looks like the center took a pretty good wnw jog, nasty feeder band heading towards Pensacola right now too..... mho
0 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1526 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:23 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Javlin wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Note that the NHC advisory has the center west of the convection. We think it's about 25-35 miles east of their position. Don't see 60 kts anywhere, but they won't indicate any weakening for a landfalling storm so the public won't take it too lightly. I still think 45kts, 50 kts max now.


Well WM57 if it gets close like Nate last year I let you know if it's a cane or a TS.I laughed at Nate as a so called cane all I saw an I am 1/3 mile from the beach(Biloxi) was ts force winds and when it passed I went what?


And I STILL can't figure out how Nate got its name "retired" .. it's intensity was never lower than 981 mb, highest winds were 91 mph (and I know all about Allison... Allison was many times worse than Nate)... It just blew my mind that they retired it. Was it that it was the fastest moving storm in the GOM? Total damage at about half a billion. Death toll 48.. ANY death is a tragedy, but some storms that remain unretired had higher than that one did. Maybe one of the pro mets can help me figure that one out.

It was the costliest disaster in Puerto Rican history. Nate dropped a lot of rain while it was just a depression.
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1527 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
drezee wrote:Buoy has reported 55mph 1-min sustained winds last hour...4m height...legit wind

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42012


I see peak 1-min at 46.6 kts or about 53 mph there. Max observed wind at any interval was 40.8 kts (about 45 mph). That buoy is passing right through Gordon's heaviest squalls north of the center, which may be a good estimate of its max sustained wind.


Lol, 47kts is 54mph....46.6kts is 53.7mph. You are being a bit tight. 1mph between friends.... :lol:
5 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1528 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:30 pm

the center is nearly exposed.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1529 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:31 pm

awesome how it gets its trying to get its act back together as it approaches the coast, looks like the core it tightening up somewhat.. a few more wnw jogs would put it pretty close to the NHC forecast line

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions
0 likes   

User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1406
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1530 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:33 pm

Recon finally flying out now.
1 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1531 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:34 pm

Just glad Gordon is just a FLASH in the pan, shouldn't really do much if any damage. People on the Gulf Coast get these type of storms almost every week
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1532 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:35 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:Recon finally flying out now.


Yeah Ed Rappaport from NHC was just on the weather channel talking about the plane heading out..to help find the center.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: GORDON - Recon

#1533 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:38 pm

236
URNT15 KWBC 042231
NOAA2 0607A GORDON HDOB 02 20180904
222200 2749N 08230W 6287 04098 0165 +042 +007 121014 015 /// /// 03
222230 2748N 08232W 6160 04264 0166 +032 -001 125013 014 /// /// 03
222300 2747N 08235W 6035 04430 0164 +024 -016 121015 016 /// /// 03
222330 2748N 08237W 5939 04562 0163 +018 -082 126017 017 /// /// 03
222400 2748N 08240W 5830 04712 0151 +017 -151 140016 017 /// /// 03
222430 2749N 08242W 5722 04861 0158 +005 -178 142017 017 /// /// 03
222500 2750N 08245W 5627 04996 0150 -002 -130 140016 017 /// /// 03
222530 2750N 08247W 5525 05141 0147 -009 -130 152016 017 /// /// 03
222600 2751N 08250W 5431 05277 0318 -018 -129 152017 018 /// /// 03
222630 2752N 08252W 5339 05413 0327 -028 -130 151018 018 /// /// 03
222700 2752N 08255W 5248 05550 0334 -037 -125 151016 017 /// /// 03
222730 2753N 08258W 5147 05704 0343 -045 -098 158016 020 /// /// 03
222800 2753N 08300W 5063 05833 0349 -049 -110 154020 020 /// /// 03
222830 2754N 08303W 5051 05849 0349 -047 -111 142020 021 /// /// 03
222900 2755N 08306W 5057 05837 0346 -051 -106 159020 022 /// /// 03
222930 2755N 08308W 5062 05835 0348 -054 -099 166021 024 /// /// 03
223000 2756N 08311W 5055 05843 0350 -048 -099 144021 022 000 002 03
223030 2757N 08314W 5055 05844 0350 -056 -101 150028 030 /// /// 03
223100 2757N 08316W 5051 05849 0349 -061 -094 146027 028 002 003 03
223130 2758N 08319W 5053 05843 0346 -062 -089 141029 031 /// /// 03
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1534 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:42 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1535 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:43 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1536 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:43 pm

Why are there posts claiming NHC is wrong and Gordon is only 45 mph? Radar shows a broad swath of 70-75kt winds around 7000ft which supports the officially assigned 70 mph value.
4 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1537 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:48 pm

the center is nearly exposed. just low level shallow convection. except the deep convection well away from it.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1538 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:49 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Why are there posts claiming NHC is wrong and Gordon is only 45 mph? Radar shows a broad swath of 70-75kt winds around 7000ft which supports the officially assigned 70 mph value.


How do radar derived winds at 7000ft equate to 70mph surface winds?
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

fendie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 151
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:33 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1539 Postby fendie » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:49 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Why are there posts claiming NHC is wrong and Gordon is only 45 mph? Radar shows a broad swath of 70-75kt winds around 7000ft which supports the officially assigned 70 mph value.


I'm guessing it's because there aren't surface observations to support 70 mph. It won't be long until we find out. Currently I'm seeeing velocity data from 3000ft above Pensacola at 72 mph. At the surface weather stations are reporting a maximum of ~30 mph.
Last edited by fendie on Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: GORDON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1540 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:50 pm

If the blossoming high clouds are the center (kind of south in that “cdo”), center would be due south of Mobile Bay. I think the llc is south of that though

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests