ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Ken711]

Pretty remarkable agreement for being so far out.

Unfortunately yes. That makes the UMET even more of an outlier so far.

[xironman]

The trough going across the gulf states late in the period dug quite a bit more this time, almost cuts off over Mississippi. Something to keep an eye on.

https://i.imgur.com/5v2y66A.png

I haven't noticed that before, why is that?

Not sure why, obviously run to run is going to be different as the genesis of these features are still over Asia. But if an H5 low spins up it will pull anything to the north of it to the left.

[tolakram]

GFS is going to do the same loop as the euro.

[TheDreamTraveler]

There's that cyclonic loop yet again.

[sittingduck]

This looks to be a devastating scenario. It makes my stomach sink and reminds me too much of watching these models bringing Irma closer and closer to me last year about 7 days out. Please let this go OTC.

[Ken711]

Is it highly unlikely now that Florence will pass to the east of Bermuda?

[AutoPenalti]

I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?

[Kazmit]

Is it highly unlikely now that Florence will pass to the east of Bermuda?

No, I wouldn't say highly unlikely. But the chances of it passing to the south or west of Bermuda have definitely increased.

[tolakram]

I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?

Look in the storm archive forums for 2017 (off of talkin tropics) and then you will soon understand why I yell at people for junking up the model thread. I try to save at least a few gifs of complete runs if you can find them.

[AutoPenalti]

I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?

Look in the storm archive forums for 2017 (off of talkin tropics) and then you will soon understand why I yell at people for junking up the model thread. I try to save at least a few gifs of complete runs if you can find them.

Ohhh yeah, I was checking in there but I only saw the discussion thread, I couldn't find the model one.

[Bocadude85]

I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?

Look in the storm archive forums for 2017 (off of talkin tropics) and then you will soon understand why I yell at people for junking up the model thread. I try to save at least a few gifs of complete runs if you can find them.

I have been reading through the Irma thread all day, and it is quite apparent that the GFS has a problem when it comes to ridge strength and position, at the very least when it came to Irma.

[tolakram]

I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?

Here is one of the euro runs you're looking for. Irma was well south of Florence. https://i.imgur.com/t5Kf52d.gif

[AutoPenalti]

I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?

Here is one of the euro runs you're looking for. Irma was well south of Florence. https://i.imgur.com/t5Kf52d.gif

Yeah, I was looking for it because I wanted to compare the synoptic pattern that of Irma around this time period.

[Cpv17]

Florida and Georgia are not off the hook. Keep your guard up. I have seen many times before where these models have an east bias past 5 days and adjust back west as it gets closer. I have seen models before have a northeast hit in the long range and it actually ends up hitting Florida.

[Ken711]

Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?

[Cpv17]

Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?

It gets caught in the steering currents around the periphery of the high pressure which would steer the storm north instead of west.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Florida and Georgia are not off the hook. Keep your guard up. I have seen many times before where these models have an east bias past 5 days and adjust back west as it gets closer. I have seen models before have a northeast hit in the long range and it actually ends up hitting Florida.

i can still remember watching the gfs recurve irma way out to sea. then into canada, new york, the carolinas, georgia, then it showed a sub 900mb monster right into my county. i’m not seeing anything that targets florida right now, but things can and will change in these runs. it’s always beneficial to be prepared regardless during this very busy peak season.

[toad strangler]

Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?

To me this isn’t a huge ridge on the latest Euro and GFS runs. That combined with it being rather transient as it moves quickly from the NW of Florence to the NE and she simply rides the periphery. This ridge on these runs is by no means a WALL.

[Ken711]

Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?

It gets caught in the steering currents around the periphery of the high pressure which would steer the storm north instead of west.

Thanks. So I assume if that high pressure receded some it would steer farther off shore, and likewise, if it extended onto land Florence would be blocked and forced West?

[Ken711]

Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?

To me this isn’t a huge ridge on the latest Euro and GFS runs. That combined with it being rather transient as it moves quickly from the NW of Florence to the NE and she simply rides the periphery. This ridge on these runs is by no means a WALL.

Thanks.