ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Ken711
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#861 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:43 pm

tolakram wrote:Pretty remarkable agreement for being so far out.

Image


Unfortunately yes. That makes the UMET even more of an outlier so far.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#862 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:45 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
xironman wrote:The trough going across the gulf states late in the period dug quite a bit more this time, almost cuts off over Mississippi. Something to keep an eye on.

https://i.imgur.com/5v2y66A.png

I haven't noticed that before, why is that?


Not sure why, obviously run to run is going to be different as the genesis of these features are still over Asia. But if an H5 low spins up it will pull anything to the north of it to the left.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#863 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:46 pm

GFS is going to do the same loop as the euro.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#864 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:47 pm

There's that cyclonic loop yet again.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#865 Postby sittingduck » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:47 pm

This looks to be a devastating scenario. It makes my stomach sink and reminds me too much of watching these models bringing Irma closer and closer to me last year about 7 days out. Please let this go OTC.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#866 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:51 pm

Is it highly unlikely now that Florence will pass to the east of Bermuda?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#867 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:51 pm

I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#868 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:53 pm

Ken711 wrote:Is it highly unlikely now that Florence will pass to the east of Bermuda?

No, I wouldn't say highly unlikely. But the chances of it passing to the south or west of Bermuda have definitely increased.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#869 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:53 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?


Look in the storm archive forums for 2017 (off of talkin tropics) and then you will soon understand why I yell at people for junking up the model thread. :) I try to save at least a few gifs of complete runs if you can find them.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#870 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:55 pm

tolakram wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?


Look in the storm archive forums for 2017 (off of talkin tropics) and then you will soon understand why I yell at people for junking up the model thread. :) I try to save at least a few gifs of complete runs if you can find them.

Ohhh yeah, I was checking in there but I only saw the discussion thread, I couldn't find the model one.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#871 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:56 pm

tolakram wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?


Look in the storm archive forums for 2017 (off of talkin tropics) and then you will soon understand why I yell at people for junking up the model thread. :) I try to save at least a few gifs of complete runs if you can find them.


I have been reading through the Irma thread all day, and it is quite apparent that the GFS has a problem when it comes to ridge strength and position, at the very least when it came to Irma.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#872 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:59 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?


Here is one of the euro runs you're looking for. Irma was well south of Florence. https://i.imgur.com/t5Kf52d.gif
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#873 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:06 pm

tolakram wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:I know this is a bit OT, but does anyone have a link to an archive of the Irma model runs?


Here is one of the euro runs you're looking for. Irma was well south of Florence. https://i.imgur.com/t5Kf52d.gif

Yeah, I was looking for it because I wanted to compare the synoptic pattern that of Irma around this time period.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#874 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:06 pm

Florida and Georgia are not off the hook. Keep your guard up. I have seen many times before where these models have an east bias past 5 days and adjust back west as it gets closer. I have seen models before have a northeast hit in the long range and it actually ends up hitting Florida.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#875 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:07 pm

Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#876 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:11 pm

Ken711 wrote:Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?


It gets caught in the steering currents around the periphery of the high pressure which would steer the storm north instead of west.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#877 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:15 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Florida and Georgia are not off the hook. Keep your guard up. I have seen many times before where these models have an east bias past 5 days and adjust back west as it gets closer. I have seen models before have a northeast hit in the long range and it actually ends up hitting Florida.

i can still remember watching the gfs recurve irma way out to sea. then into canada, new york, the carolinas, georgia, then it showed a sub 900mb monster right into my county. i’m not seeing anything that targets florida right now, but things can and will change in these runs. it’s always beneficial to be prepared regardless during this very busy peak season.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#878 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:19 pm

Ken711 wrote:Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?


To me this isn’t a huge ridge on the latest Euro and GFS runs. That combined with it being rather transient as it moves quickly from the NW of Florence to the NE and she simply rides the periphery. This ridge on these runs is by no means a WALL.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#879 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:20 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ken711 wrote:Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?


It gets caught in the steering currents around the periphery of the high pressure which would steer the storm north instead of west.


Thanks. So I assume if that high pressure receded some it would steer farther off shore, and likewise, if it extended onto land Florence would be blocked and forced West?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#880 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:22 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Ken711 wrote:Can one of the pro-mets or more experienced posters explain to me what keeps Florence off shore instead of plowing inland and landfalling in the NC/VA/MD areas in the latest GFS and Euro runs?


To me this isn’t a huge ridge on the latest Euro and GFS runs. That combined with it being rather transient as it moves quickly from the NW of Florence to the NE and she simply rides the periphery. This ridge on these runs is by no means a WALL.


Thanks.
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