ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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PandaCitrus
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#961 Postby PandaCitrus » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:26 pm

GFS recurves at 189 hours south of New England.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#962 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:27 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Oh, so it's going to be one of those pure horror runs, then. Good thing it's still 174 hours out.

I know it is a model run, but this is like watching a horror movie, especially because of where this is trying to make landfall.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#963 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:29 pm

Loop coming?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#964 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:29 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Oh, so it's going to be one of those pure horror runs, then. Good thing it's still 174 hours out.

I know it is a model run, but this is like watching a horror movie, especially because of where this is trying to make landfall.



It just pulled a "psyche!" and did a recurve short of New York.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#965 Postby HurricaneEric » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:31 pm

PandaCitrus wrote:GFS recurves at 189 hours south of New England.

Image


Talk about a huge difference between the GFS and UKMET... At about 73W, UKMET has Florence at 25N moving W while GFS has it at about 38N looking to possible recurve to the NE.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#966 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:33 pm

HurricaneEric wrote:
PandaCitrus wrote:GFS recurves at 189 hours south of New England.

Image


Talk about a huge difference between the GFS and UKMET... At about 73W, UKMET has Florence at 25N moving W while GFS has it at about 38N looking to possible recurve to the NE.


Ridging must be awfully strong on the UKMET.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#967 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:35 pm

So, now that the GFS has Florence recurving, can we talk about the low that forms in the north Atlantic, moves SE, and appears to form into a storm, turning what would be the next storm off of Africa to the north? Would that type of thing have an effect on tracking for Florence in this run?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#968 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:35 pm

It'd be scraping against the coast pretty much. Looks like it's moving very slowly. Normally when hurricanes go north near jersey and new england they tend to accelerate.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#969 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:37 pm

Becoming clear why NHC limits their forecasts to 5 days. Models aren’t that accurate farther out. Too many variables.

I think the first left bend starting at hour 24-36 should pan out. After that ????
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#970 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:40 pm

Looks like the gfs and Canadian show the same movement around hour 198 with a sharp clockwise hook around the northwest side of a high. Gfs does the hook south of Long Island while Canadian does the same hook over North Carolina

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#971 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:46 pm

I think she's going to plow into the Delmarva, the CMC is probably right on with the stronger ridging but the track looks too far south.

And we're talking record SE Canada ridging, track could end up similar to Isabel but further north. All of this is still speculative though, the Ukmet is really throwing me off.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#972 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:46 pm

I have a feeling past 60hrs could be a forecasting headache as we have several different scenarios from the UKMET without a north turn to The Euro and GFS which erode the original ridge and rebuild the ridge threatening the mid Atlantic and Northeast states to NAVGEM with out to sea
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#973 Postby lando » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:51 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:I have a feeling past 60hrs could be a forecasting headache as we have several different scenarios from the UKMET without a north turn to The Euro and GFS which erode the original ridge and rebuild the ridge threatening the mid Atlantic and Northeast states to NAVGEM with out to sea


Ukie hasn’t flinched in two days but the euro and gfs keep windshield washing hmm
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#974 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:New 0z UKMET ends at 25N 73W moving due west

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots


anyone the ukmet intensity for 00z ?


Hour 144, 966mb.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#975 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:54 pm

Could be some credence to the UKMET . does appear to be under a sheared environment and weaker for a couple days allowing the ridging to being well established before it begins to intensify again.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#976 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:55 pm

Looking at the satellite it looks like Florence is already starting the west turn, it would mean the GFS is turning west 18hrs later than observed so that means the GFS may already be off in the short run
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#977 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:01 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Looking at the satellite it looks like Florence is already starting the west turn, it would mean the GFS is turning west 18hrs later than observed so that means the GFS may already be off in the short run

I was noticing that as well, but was not able to tell if shear was casting an illusion.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#978 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:11 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Looking at the satellite it looks like Florence is already starting the west turn, it would mean the GFS is turning west 18hrs later than observed so that means the GFS may already be off in the short run

I was noticing that as well, but was not able to tell if shear was casting an illusion.

NHC discussion did mention that it was about to even out its heading.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#979 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:20 am

lol ukmet. it sure is stuck on that solution. Obviously it hasn't always been right with every storm. But still...definitely still an outlier.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#980 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:20 am

Well the UKMET is either going to bust big time or have a major win. If nothing else it has been very consistent with its idea of a westerly heading.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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