ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Florence looks hideous. Possible she just packs it in.

I doubt that. Remember what she looked like east of the Lesser Antilles when she was a weak wave? Much better conditions are ahead.

[BYG Jacob]

They say this is a hurricane?

Actually, that's the best she's looked in a day and a half.

[emeraldislenc]

Just give it a few days.

[LarryWx]

Here's some pretty interesting history going back to 1851:
Out of all of the 1,500+ or so TCs on record since 1851, not a single one hit the CONUS that moved NW-NNW-N (315+ degrees) east of 48W! Currently, the furthest east was storm #5 of 1906: it moved NW from 48.0W to 48.4W and then turned NNW for a short time before turning back WNW and later hitting the CONUS:

http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default ... /track.gif

IF Flo were to later hit the CONUS, it would establish a new record for the furthest east NW moving storm to later do so as it moved NW starting at 46.6W and continuing through 47.9W.

[galaxy401]

Every time a storm weakens, posts come up saying the storm is dead. Way to early to say that, see how she looks tomorrow. All forecasts predict that Florence will recover.

[Bocadude85]

Here's some pretty interesting history going back to 1851:
Out of all of the 1,500+ or so TCs on record since 1851, not a single one hit the CONUS that moved NW-NNW-N (315+ degrees) east of 48W! Currently, the furthest east was storm #5 of 1906: it moved NW from 48.0W to 48.4W and then turned NNW for a short time before turning back WNW and later hitting the CONUS:

http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default ... /track.gif

IF Flo were to later hit the CONUS, it would establish a new record for the furthest east NW moving storm to later do so as it moved NW starting at 46.6W and continuing through 47.9W.

All it takes is the right steering currents and a record can be broken, I have always been fascinated by the November 1935 Yankee hurricane,https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane#/media/File%3A1935_Atlantic_hurricane_7_track.png it’s not everyday that you get a storm forming north of Bermuda making landfall in S.Fla, of course Florence has nothing in common with this storm but it just goes to show that crazy things can happen when the right steering currents setup.

[JaxGator]

It's probably just temporary, but an eye like feature maybe forming on the last few frames on GOES-16.

[weathaguyry]

How long should it take for Florence to exit the zone of high shear that's currently tearing her apart?

[hurricaneCW]

Florence isn't going to dissipate, it does not matter what she looks like now she'll likely be a Cat 4 near the east coast.

How quickly people forget the rapid turnaround of past storms.

[StormTracker]

18-20 hrs from now based on the
NHC...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 49.8W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES



Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

Deep convection near the center of Florence has continued to
decrease during the past several hours, and the overall cloud
pattern remains elongated from southwest to northeast. The latest
Dvorak estimates and a recent scatterometer pass suggest that
Florence is no longer a hurricane, and the initial wind speed is
set to 60 kt.

Some further weakening is anticipated since the shear isn't forecast
to change much in the short term. However, all of the global models
show a significant reduction of shear during the next several days,
especially later this weekend. In combination with waters warming
to near 29C, these conditions should promote strengthening into a
hurricane again in a day or two and a major hurricane by early next
week. The intensity guidance is higher than the last cycle at long
range, which is hard to argue with considering the large upper-level
anticyclone forecast in the vicinity of Florence. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous prediction, a bit
elevated from the previous forecast at days 4 and 5, although still
below the intensity guidance.

A recent scatterometer pass indicates that Florence has slowed down
and turned left, estimated at 290/6. A narrow ridge over the
subtropical Atlantic Ocean should continue to turn the storm
westward overnight, albeit traveling at a relatively slow pace due
to the strength of the ridge. This ridge is forecast is strengthen
at long range, steering Florence faster to the west-northwest over
the western Atlantic Ocean. Except for the UKMET, most of the
historically reliable guidance is in reasonable agreement on this
scenario, which is a bit surprising given the recent trials and
tribulations from the guidance suite. The models continue to shift
westward at long range, however, owing to differences on the
strength and position of that ridge, and the official NHC track
forecast is moved in that direction.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin
to affect Bermuda on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this
weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track
beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other
impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.

3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good
time for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 25.1N 49.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 25.2N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 25.2N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 25.2N 53.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 25.3N 54.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 26.1N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 30.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[supercane4867]

Still remember last year when Harvey opened up into a wave in the Caribbean and then some started saying the season was dead

[TheStormExpert]

Is it time to bring out bones yet?

But seriously, this has model support to significantly recover.

[Ken711]

Florence isn't going to dissipate, it does not matter what she looks like now she'll likely be a Cat 4 near the east coast.

How quickly people forget the rapid turnaround of past storms.

NHC 11:00PM discussion:

In combination with waters warming to near 29C, these conditions should promote strengthening into a
hurricane again in a day or two and a major hurricane by early next week. The intensity guidance is higher than the last cycle at longrange, which is hard to argue with considering the large upper-level
anticyclone forecast in the vicinity of Florence.

Back to Category 4 in a 5 days.

[HurricaneIrma]

Is it time to bring out bones yet?

But seriously, this has model support to significantly recover.

I think it's HEADED for my state. I'm in the Carolinas myself

[CrazyC83]

Still remember last year when Harvey opened up into a wave in the Caribbean and then some started saying the season was dead

Not to mention Andrew in 1992. First Recon flight found a pressure like 1016! (Even though winds were like 50 kt but that may have been because of the shear).

[EquusStorm]

Really annoyed to see any calls for its demise despite its awful appearance; when the moisture envelope and massive surface vorticity are still in place as they are with this there's no way it just succumbs with only a day left of shear. Granted, I certainly wouldn't be shocked if it winds up well below the 12-72 hour or so intensity forecasts, but the opposite is also possible... I think by day 4-5 it'll be well recovered. If we write off this we also gotta write off Harvey and Andrew which were tropical storms before pseudo-demise, not category four hurricanes with a corresponding leftover structural infrastructure

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Here's some pretty interesting history going back to 1851:
Out of all of the 1,500+ or so TCs on record since 1851, not a single one hit the CONUS that moved NW-NNW-N (315+ degrees) east of 48W! Currently, the furthest east was storm #5 of 1906: it moved NW from 48.0W to 48.4W and then turned NNW for a short time before turning back WNW and later hitting the CONUS:

http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default ... /track.gif

IF Flo were to later hit the CONUS, it would establish a new record for the furthest east NW moving storm to later do so as it moved NW starting at 46.6W and continuing through 47.9W.

All it takes is the right steering currents and a record can be broken, I have always been fascinated by the November 1935 Yankee hurricane,https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane#/media/File%3A1935_Atlantic_hurricane_7_track.png it’s not everyday that you get a storm forming north of Bermuda making landfall in S.Fla, of course Florence has nothing in common with this storm but it just goes to show that crazy things can happen when the right steering currents setup.

Even a 16 seed can beat a number 1 seed, eventually.

[drewschmaltz]

Here's some pretty interesting history going back to 1851:
Out of all of the 1,500+ or so TCs on record since 1851, not a single one hit the CONUS that moved NW-NNW-N (315+ degrees) east of 48W! Currently, the furthest east was storm #5 of 1906: it moved NW from 48.0W to 48.4W and then turned NNW for a short time before turning back WNW and later hitting the CONUS:

http://weather.unisys.com/sites/default ... /track.gif

IF Flo were to later hit the CONUS, it would establish a new record for the furthest east NW moving storm to later do so as it moved NW starting at 46.6W and continuing through 47.9W.

It would follow that the required synoptic scale is also rare. But is it? How many TCs were heading NW-NNW-N (315+ degrees) east of 48W?

[Blown Away]

Looking better Flo will split the CONUS/Bermuda uprights...