ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

people ... people.. we go through this every year.. its fun to watch the models after 3 days but sometimes they can barely get 24 hours correct. deep breaths. as unwanted as it is.. stick with the ukmet for now. It is the most logical solutions... as we are well aware models almost always under due the ridging in this type of scenario with little to troughing. given the setup the ukmet will likely shift back south as well as the other models. with no real troughs it is a likely scenario..

from southern florida to New york still needs to watch... a lot of variables are in play right now.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... SE through 48 hrs... Each run now a little slower either allowing an escape or delaying and getting trapped under building ridge down the road...

[lando]

euro initiated at 1000mb and goes up to 1003mb which made me really wonder if i was looking at it right haha

[Aric Dunn]

also appears a wsw to sw motion as started with florence the last few hours.. that will be key..

[Aric Dunn]

00z Euro... SE through 48 hrs... Each run now a little slower either allowing an escape or delaying and getting trapped under building ridge down the road...

the ironic thing is.. if it faster it makes landfall. if it slower it makes landfall..


the time for out to sea has passed.. at least untill it approaches land. now it all comes down to which ridging is stronger than the other..

[Aric Dunn]

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... SE of 12z through 72 hrs... More ridge than 12z at 72.

[lando]

Seems to be much more WNW then NW from 72-96

[Blown Away]

00z Euro 96 hours... SE of 12z; More ridging; Ridge axis flatter E/W, maybe more S this run?

[NC_Cyclone]

Long time weather hobbyist. Long time lurker on this board.


The reason the euro is a little south of GFS has to be strength of cyclone. Ridging is all but identical at hour 120 between the two models but pressure of system is off by 30mb!!

Weaker system maintains western track

[MississippiWx]

Yeah, Euro and UKMET are pretty close to each other at 120. Not good..

So far, a pretty large jump south by the Euro at 0z.

[MississippiWx]

The trough out west on the Euro at 120 is really digging south down the west coast and not advancing much to the east.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, Euro and UKMET are pretty close to each other at 120. Not good..

So far, a pretty large jump south by the Euro at 0z.

all still within both the ukmet and euro ensemble spread for the last 2 days. anywhere from south florida to new york.. time to wabble watch.. florence is already moving wsw will pass south of 25n by morning and likely south of 24 n overall. then comes the question how long does it stay on a westerly vector? ukmet is still the most reasonable solution.

[MississippiWx]

Yeah, Euro and UKMET are pretty close to each other at 120. Not good..

So far, a pretty large jump south by the Euro at 0z.

all still within both the ukmet and euro ensemble spread for the last 2 days. anywhere from south florida to new york.. time to wabble watch.. florence is already moving wsw will pass south of 25n by morning and likely south of 24 n overall. then comes the question how long does it stay on a westerly vector? ukmet is still the most reasonable solution.

Probably will have a lot to do with how much it is able to strengthen.

[Aric Dunn]

definitely south this run .. looks like the 12z run from yesterday. landfall probably SC /NC area. unless that ridge build west ..

[MississippiWx]

No where to go at 144 but land. Trapped with a massive ridge overhead. NW Pacific is amplified with a huge Alaskan ridge carving out a trough along the West Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

well lets just say HUGO part two ?

[Blown Away]

definitely south this run .. looks like the 12z run from yesterday. landfall probably SC /NC area. unless that ridge build west ..

At 144 hrs, what effect is that ridge expanding W have?

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, Euro and UKMET are pretty close to each other at 120. Not good..

So far, a pretty large jump south by the Euro at 0z.

all still within both the ukmet and euro ensemble spread for the last 2 days. anywhere from south florida to new york.. time to wabble watch.. florence is already moving wsw will pass south of 25n by morning and likely south of 24 n overall. then comes the question how long does it stay on a westerly vector? ukmet is still the most reasonable solution.

Probably will have a lot to do with how much it is able to strengthen.

yes but only to a point. without a trough to dig in. we are left with which ridge is stronger. better yet.. if florence deepens a lot then it can push back more either way. this is going to be a very difficult forecast with such weak steering.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow landfall in SC on this Euro run