
ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- chris_fit
- Category 5
- Posts: 3222
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Wow - Unless I'm reading this incorrectly, the 00Z ECMF Ensemble suite shows the majority (more than 50%) members striking SC or points further south!


1 likes
- Hurricane Andrew
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1891
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
- Location: KS
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
For me personally, 12z suite is really important to see if this very weak 12-48ish trend is legit. We shall see...
0 likes
The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd
Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)
"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2991
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The 6Z GFS ensembles are a decent amount southwest of the 0z, still mostly offshore but much closer to the coast now.
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
FV3 GFS with another south shift. The model has this moving WSW for the next 78 hours. Loses a good amount of latitude:


1 likes
- AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3999
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Just wanted to throw a quick reminder into both the Florence threads...
If you quote another post with an embedded image or tweet, please delete the tags so the actual image or tweet doesn't show up in your reply. While we understand the need for context here, we really like (read: NEED) to have our members do this when threads become active (a/k/a "Storm Mode") in order to cut down on the same image or tweet showing up 3 to 5 (often more) times on a page, which makes it more cumbersome/time consuming to scroll through the threads. Thanks, and post away!
If you quote another post with an embedded image or tweet, please delete the tags so the actual image or tweet doesn't show up in your reply. While we understand the need for context here, we really like (read: NEED) to have our members do this when threads become active (a/k/a "Storm Mode") in order to cut down on the same image or tweet showing up 3 to 5 (often more) times on a page, which makes it more cumbersome/time consuming to scroll through the threads. Thanks, and post away!
8 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1734
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
There seems to be a general consensus between the Euro, GFS and Canadian on a NC strike.
I think I can relax now.
Thank God it will change on the next run.
I think I can relax now.
Thank God it will change on the next run.
1 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Not much consensus in my view the only thing that's rather certain is that there continues to be general southward trend with the models. Infact i think its the most EPS members i've see now impacting Florida. To think any impacts on the SE are still 5-7 days away so plenty more shifts coming either way. Stay tuned


1 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
OuterBanker wrote:There seems to be a general consensus between the Euro, GFS and Canadian on a NC strike.
I think I can relax now.
Thank God it will change on the next run.
At first I was confused. Then I read your location. That was my sentiments yesterday when the Euro showed a hit square in the center of the SC coastline. "Well, at least it is still 6+ days out. It will probably shift somewhere else on the next run."

0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
chris_fit wrote:Wow - Unless I'm reading this incorrectly, the 00Z ECMF Ensemble suite shows the majority (more than 50%) members striking SC or points further south!
https://i.imgur.com/2VuKs8V.png
Note that the strongest members are also the furthest SW in the medium to long term.
0 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
NDG wrote:12z early models shift west.
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/DTKg1MM.gif[/img]
Great news for Bermuda.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
NDG wrote:12z early models shift west.
Hmm the TVCN that the NHC likes is showing a Wilmington landfall here.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Important benchmark for eventual landfall location will be 30N-75W - if Flo is south of that location in 5-6 days, she'll likely hit either Florida or Georgia.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:28 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Shell Mound wrote:chris_fit wrote:Wow - Unless I'm reading this incorrectly, the 00Z ECMF Ensemble suite shows the majority (more than 50%) members striking SC or points further south!
https://i.imgur.com/2VuKs8V.png
Note that the strongest members are also the furthest SW in the medium to long term.
While this may be correct it is not the cause of this occurrence. The reason why those members are south is the strength of Florenc over the next 36hrs. Many of those incorrectly keep Florence 1000+ for 2-4 more days. That is not going to be the case given trends this morning and the forecasted environment.
You can clearly see the weakest of solutions dives Florence much further SW than the others. In the next 48 hrs.
That is your thing to watch.
These southern solutions will likely not verify.
In two days if FLorence is still a 1000+ TS/TD then maybe they can be entertained but that is a very very very small chance of occurring.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
BobHarlem wrote:NDG wrote:12z early models shift west.
Hmm the TVCN that the NHC likes is showing a Wilmington landfall here.
Between Wilmington and Morehead City to be exact.

1 likes
- HurricaneEnzo
- Category 2
- Posts: 739
- Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
- Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
NDG wrote:BobHarlem wrote:NDG wrote:12z early models shift west.
Hmm the TVCN that the NHC likes is showing a Wilmington landfall here.
Between Wilmington and Morehead City to be exact.
Morehead City resident here. I hate to say I want the models to trend elsewhere because that most likely means someone else is in the crosshairs but I am not a fan of that run. Still several days out though so I expect it to change especially once we get some recon data in the models.
1 likes
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 15
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:30 pm
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
CronkPSU wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:
Am I reading this right, a 950ish hurricane into Charleston/MB?
Jesus. At this point, FL might still be in play. This bad boy goes further south with each run. I was already writing this bad boy off a couple of days ago and I know not to do that, but it keeps happening.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests