ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[chris_fit]

Wow - Unless I'm reading this incorrectly, the 00Z ECMF Ensemble suite shows the majority (more than 50%) members striking SC or points further south!

[Hurricane Andrew]

For me personally, 12z suite is really important to see if this very weak 12-48ish trend is legit. We shall see...

[Bocadude85]

The 6Z GFS ensembles are a decent amount southwest of the 0z, still mostly offshore but much closer to the coast now.

[gatorcane]

FV3 GFS with another south shift. The model has this moving WSW for the next 78 hours. Loses a good amount of latitude:

[AJC3]

Just wanted to throw a quick reminder into both the Florence threads...

If you quote another post with an embedded image or tweet, please delete the tags so the actual image or tweet doesn't show up in your reply. While we understand the need for context here, we really like (read: NEED) to have our members do this when threads become active (a/k/a "Storm Mode") in order to cut down on the same image or tweet showing up 3 to 5 (often more) times on a page, which makes it more cumbersome/time consuming to scroll through the threads. Thanks, and post away!

[OuterBanker]

There seems to be a general consensus between the Euro, GFS and Canadian on a NC strike.

I think I can relax now.

Thank God it will change on the next run.

[SFLcane]

Not much consensus in my view the only thing that's rather certain is that there continues to be general southward trend with the models. Infact i think its the most EPS members i've see now impacting Florida. To think any impacts on the SE are still 5-7 days away so plenty more shifts coming either way. Stay tuned

[dspguy]

There seems to be a general consensus between the Euro, GFS and Canadian on a NC strike.

I think I can relax now.

Thank God it will change on the next run.

At first I was confused. Then I read your location. That was my sentiments yesterday when the Euro showed a hit square in the center of the SC coastline. "Well, at least it is still 6+ days out. It will probably shift somewhere else on the next run."

[Shell Mound]

Wow - Unless I'm reading this incorrectly, the 00Z ECMF Ensemble suite shows the majority (more than 50%) members striking SC or points further south!

https://i.imgur.com/2VuKs8V.png

Note that the strongest members are also the furthest SW in the medium to long term.

[NDG]

12z early models shift west.

[plasticup]

12z early models shift west.

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/DTKg1MM.gif[/img]

Great news for Bermuda.

[SFLcane]

Ok um that trend could stop now...

[BobHarlem]

12z early models shift west.

Hmm the TVCN that the NHC likes is showing a Wilmington landfall here.

[ronjon]

Important benchmark for eventual landfall location will be 30N-75W - if Flo is south of that location in 5-6 days, she'll likely hit either Florida or Georgia.

[NC_Cyclone]

Wow - Unless I'm reading this incorrectly, the 00Z ECMF Ensemble suite shows the majority (more than 50%) members striking SC or points further south!

https://i.imgur.com/2VuKs8V.png

Note that the strongest members are also the furthest SW in the medium to long term.

While this may be correct it is not the cause of this occurrence. The reason why those members are south is the strength of Florenc over the next 36hrs. Many of those incorrectly keep Florence 1000+ for 2-4 more days. That is not going to be the case given trends this morning and the forecasted environment.

You can clearly see the weakest of solutions dives Florence much further SW than the others. In the next 48 hrs.

That is your thing to watch.
These southern solutions will likely not verify.


In two days if FLorence is still a 1000+ TS/TD then maybe they can be entertained but that is a very very very small chance of occurring.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1038055784435863553

[NDG]

12z early models shift west.

Hmm the TVCN that the NHC likes is showing a Wilmington landfall here.

Between Wilmington and Morehead City to be exact.

[HurricaneEnzo]

12z early models shift west.

Hmm the TVCN that the NHC likes is showing a Wilmington landfall here.

Between Wilmington and Morehead City to be exact.

Morehead City resident here. I hate to say I want the models to trend elsewhere because that most likely means someone else is in the crosshairs but I am not a fan of that run. Still several days out though so I expect it to change especially once we get some recon data in the models.

[Aric Dunn]

I see all the models and ensembles have shifted quite a bit south.. not surprised. I bet they come even farther south..

[ChucktownStormer]

Am I reading this right, a 950ish hurricane into Charleston/MB?

Jesus. At this point, FL might still be in play. This bad boy goes further south with each run. I was already writing this bad boy off a couple of days ago and I know not to do that, but it keeps happening.