ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[edu2703]

0z early models are out. Watch out North Carolina

Where did you find them? Not updating for me

[gatorcane]

[lando]

According to the other thread, she is already further S then any model forecasted included UKie. I don't think that we have seen the end of the SW trends yet as they have not come to terms with her current movement

[gatorcane]

According to the other thread, she is already further S then any model forecasted included UKie. I don't think that we have seen the end of the SW trends yet as they have not come to terms with her current movement

Look at the orange ECMWF ensemble lines in that graphic above that are south of the UKIE. They end up further south, as far south as Southern Florida.

[StormyWaters93]

Definitely not -removed-, but also not going off of anything scientific. I keep getting the feeling that Florence is going to impact Florida. I had the same feeling with Irma and Matthew way before they were even tracked towards Florida. I hope I am wrong, but these West shifts feed into that nightmare of a a feeling.

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Tapatalk

[GeneratorPower]

The far southern ensemble lines through South Florida bring it ashore as a depression. Not likely and not impressive.

Nevertheless...

[Blown Away]

Definitely not -removed-, but also not going off of anything scientific. I keep getting the feeling that Florence is going to impact Florida. I had the same feeling with Irma and Matthew way before they were even tracked towards Florida. I hope I am wrong, but these West shifts feed into that nightmare of a a feeling.

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Tapatalk

I think the recon out in front of Flo sampling high pressure will determine Florida or Carolinas...

[johngaltfla]

Gang, I want to calm this down a tad. Until Kermit gets up there with the upper level sampling, keep in mind these models are missing key data. Once we get an idea of how the high pressure ridge is building and the intensity, these models are not as accurate as they can be.

The data from the Gulfstream will be a huge help and will give us a clearer picture on Sunday.

In the mean time, remember the S2K motto:

Gotta
Have
More
Recon

[SSL]

Definitely not -removed-, but also not going off of anything scientific. I keep getting the feeling that Florence is going to impact Florida. I had the same feeling with Irma and Matthew way before they were even tracked towards Florida. I hope I am wrong, but these West shifts feed into that nightmare of a a feeling.

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Tapatalk

I think the recon out in front of Flo sampling high pressure will determine Florida or Carolinas...

...Yo. What about Georgia? You just gonna leave my state out? We always get left out. XD

[Blinhart]

The far southern ensemble lines through South Florida bring it ashore as a depression. Not likely and not impressive.

Nevertheless...

Where do you see the strength in the ensembles??? I just see lines all the same color. Some of the ensembles have her going to New Orleans.

[storm4u]

FWIW the 0z NAM is further north and the ridge is weaker than 18z

[Hurricaneman]

Let’s see what 0zGFS shows

[Bocadude85]

FWIW the 0z NAM is further north and the ridge is weaker than 18z

I would not use the NAM as far as track goes, the reason the ridge is “weaker” this run is because the NAM shows a little more development with 94L which doesn’t allow the ridge to build in. We will have to wait and see if any other models show this.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just a friendly reminder people...this is the MODELS thread. This thread is for posting models so they are easy for people to find. In the last three pages there were only 5 graphics posted. Discuss in Discussion thread. When it starts really ramping up around here it will get hard to find things if we dont stick to those rules (no I'm not a Mod but I didnt stay at a HI last night either )

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119804

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...

[Aric Dunn]

Very little movement the first 36 to 42 hours with the GFS>.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...

So this model run looks like trash right off the bat, It’s too Far East at initialization

[Aric Dunn]

00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...

So this model run looks like trash right off the bat, It’s too Far East at initialization

30 miles east is not going to change much

[AutoPenalti]

I don’t know about this run, it’s a lot slower than 18Z for sure.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... Initialized @30 miles to far E... Slightly E of 18z at 30 hrs...

So this model run looks like trash right off the bat, It’s too Far East at initialization

I don't think it matters much, likely subtle differences...