Blinhart wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:IF anyone thinks the models have a handle on the track. just take a look at the spread just 24 to 36 hours out. that is a large difference in all the ensemble for such a small time period. they cant even nail down the next 24 hours let alone the next 5 days.
That’s because models struggle more with weak steering currents like we have right now. Once the ridge builds in the steering will be quite strong and Florence will move quickly. Models, especially the Euro, usually handle that type of steering much better. As much as people are trying to wishcast this into Florida, the reliable guidance has shifted north and puts NC/SC at highest risk for any threat. The HWRF is an outlier at this point and even the west biased UK has shifted north today which should be telling as we are getting inside 5 days. Florida still needs to watch this but the most likely impacts from Florence are the Carolinas. Balloon data tonight should be interesting but I don’t expect major changes.
Sorry I have to disagree with you. With the possibility of the Ridge building in stronger and with a possible dip in it causing Flo to move further south, Florida I say has over a 50% chance of getting landfall, compared to 40 to 50% chance of the Carolina's getting hit, with SC a higher chance than NC.
Blin,
I wouldn’t take any model hitting Florida too seriously at this point and certainly not 50%. I mean I could see you giving it 5-10%, but the unpredictable HWRF is the only thing sort of in that ballpark at this point. Time will tell, and increasing upper air information along with a decreasing time frame should be honing in on things. I don’t think this will recurve, but that’s probably a better bet based on some of the US ensembles than a hit on Florida. We are talking likely landfall next Thursday (possibly late Wednesday if it’s at the extreme south end of reliable guidance). So things should hone in as per usual.
The caution is there was some discrepancy with Gordon and the mescoscales right up to landfall. So models may show a 100 mile spread still with 30 hours left. Sometimes those are good, sometimes not. Same with the Hurricane models. I’ve seen the HWRF win the overal best output a few times, but it’s also been way, way off many more times.
Still, Florida is facing a threat as is GA, SC, NC, VA,etc. whatever anyone needs to get done or have in hand, there is plenty of time to beat the rush and be prepared.
