ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
The new GFS, the ECM and the NHC all going for nearly identical locations, UKMO is just a little bit further north as well...think that's pretty good agreement now, with obviously the GFS being the eastern outlier at this point.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
toad strangler wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:ronjon wrote:
I think a climo hit would be actually scrapping the OBX heading OTS afterward.
Actually climo would have been for Florence to recurve before Bermuda and OTS. We are in uncharted territory here when it comes to climo and Florence doesn’t seem to care. Topsail Beach, NC is usually a sweet spot for storms approaching from the south or southeast.
Fran, Hugo, & Isabel disagree. My context is when majors have hit this track is pretty similar regardless of the anomalies of origin.
Yeah at this point there are some similar ones but strictly speaking from climo Florence shouldn't be here or in a position to threaten the US at all.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
I would think that would be about 115 mph winds given the likely size of the storm. But even if Florence is a category 1 or 2 at landfall, the threat is still very high from rainfall and surge.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Wow, surprised Euro went so deep into CONUS after landfall, to me that indicates much stronger ridging... Be interested to see ensembles and how many are in SC/GA again.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12z NAVGEM comes to its senses - follows Euro and HWRF track into NC.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=06L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018090912&fh=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=06L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018090912&fh=0
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Yeah, the Euro ejects the twitching carcass of the storm to the South-Southwest and brings the weak low into northern Florida. Those who were saying Florida impact may get your shot after all...regardless, looks like a Harvey-esque situation for interior Carolinas with the storm slowing or stalling. Not good.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Floridians never let their guard down, florence to the n, isaac to the south, october a few weeks awayLarryWx wrote:Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
12Z EPS: After actually starting off slightly further south through 60W and further west just like its operational, the mean actually ends up very slightly further N when it gets to the SE US. There's a Jax hit but that's the only FL TS+ hit vs the 0Z EPS several N FL hits. So, a slight trend N fwiw.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Interestingly, despite being slightly N at the SE coast, the 12Z EPS mean is actually slightly further S the first couple of days like its operational. On the 0Z EPS, most members were N of 25.0 at 60W. Now, on the 12Z EPS only ~1/2 are N of 25.0 W then.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
LarryWx wrote:Interestingly, despite being slightly N at the SE coast, the 12Z EPS mean is actually slightly further S the first couple of days like its operational. On the 0Z EPS, most members were N of 25.0 at 60W. Now, on the 12Z EPS only ~1/2 are N of 25.0 W then.
I find it interesting that there are now 3 distinct clusters. the right, middle, and left..
northern florida still in play..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
LarryWx wrote:Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.
What?? I am near Gville. Where can I see the model that shows this please?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Ken711 wrote:MrJames wrote:12Z Euro Ensembles
Still a wide spread.
Very large. 3 very different solutions are still on the table.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Highteeld wrote:Ken711 wrote:MrJames wrote:12Z Euro Ensembles
Still a wide spread.
Very large. 3 very different solutions are still on the table.
I believe tomorrow will be the defining day.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
NAm has slightly farther west ridging again.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
FLeastcoast wrote:LarryWx wrote:Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.
What?? I am near Gville. Where can I see the model that shows this please?
It is only a weak low but interesting nonetheless: the low shows then moves SW
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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