ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[KWT]

The new GFS, the ECM and the NHC all going for nearly identical locations, UKMO is just a little bit further north as well...think that's pretty good agreement now, with obviously the GFS being the eastern outlier at this point.

[txwatcher91]

I think a climo hit would be actually scrapping the OBX heading OTS afterward.

Actually climo would have been for Florence to recurve before Bermuda and OTS. We are in uncharted territory here when it comes to climo and Florence doesn’t seem to care. Topsail Beach, NC is usually a sweet spot for storms approaching from the south or southeast.

Fran, Hugo, & Isabel disagree. My context is when majors have hit this track is pretty similar regardless of the anomalies of origin.

Yeah at this point there are some similar ones but strictly speaking from climo Florence shouldn't be here or in a position to threaten the US at all.

[edu2703]

[CrazyC83]

Close up view is 948mb

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b9 ... 585375.png

I would think that would be about 115 mph winds given the likely size of the storm. But even if Florence is a category 1 or 2 at landfall, the threat is still very high from rainfall and surge.

[Blown Away]

Wow, surprised Euro went so deep into CONUS after landfall, to me that indicates much stronger ridging... Be interested to see ensembles and how many are in SC/GA again.

[LarryWx]

Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM comes to its senses - follows Euro and HWRF track into NC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=06L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018090912&fh=0

[AdamFirst]

Yeah, the Euro ejects the twitching carcass of the storm to the South-Southwest and brings the weak low into northern Florida. Those who were saying Florida impact may get your shot after all...regardless, looks like a Harvey-esque situation for interior Carolinas with the storm slowing or stalling. Not good.

[jlauderdal]

Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.

Floridians never let their guard down, florence to the n, isaac to the south, october a few weeks away

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: After actually starting off slightly further south through 60W and further west just like its operational, the mean actually ends up very slightly further N when it gets to the SE US. There's a Jax hit but that's the only FL TS+ hit vs the 0Z EPS several N FL hits. So, a slight trend N fwiw.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, despite being slightly N at the SE coast, the 12Z EPS mean is actually slightly further S the first couple of days like its operational. On the 0Z EPS, most members were N of 25.0 at 60W. Now, on the 12Z EPS only ~1/2 are N of 25.0 W then.

[Aric Dunn]

Interestingly, despite being slightly N at the SE coast, the 12Z EPS mean is actually slightly further S the first couple of days like its operational. On the 0Z EPS, most members were N of 25.0 at 60W. Now, on the 12Z EPS only ~1/2 are N of 25.0 W then.

I find it interesting that there are now 3 distinct clusters. the right, middle, and left..

northern florida still in play..

[FLeastcoast]

Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.

What?? I am near Gville. Where can I see the model that shows this please?

[MrJames]

12Z Euro Ensembles

[Ken711]

12Z Euro Ensembles

Still a wide spread.

[Highteeld]

12Z Euro Ensembles



Still a wide spread.

Very large. 3 very different solutions are still on the table.

[pgoss11]

12Z Euro Ensembles



Still a wide spread.

Very large. 3 very different solutions are still on the table.

I believe tomorrow will be the defining day.

[Aric Dunn]

NAm has slightly farther west ridging again.

[LarryWx]

Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then moves inland to pcbjr's abode in Gainseville!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.

What?? I am near Gville. Where can I see the model that shows this please?

It is only a weak low but interesting nonetheless: the low shows then moves SW
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png

[Ken711]