ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[poof121]

COAMPS is still the best performing model over the last 24 hrs with 0 positional error.
Luckily, it is forecast some weakening before landfall with a dramatic slow down in forward speed

FSU product, no?

Nah, US Navy.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro

[tolakram]

0z Euro closeup

[tolakram]

0Z HWRF

[tolakram]

6Z HMON

[ronjon]

06z FV-3 GFS bullseye Wilmington then it wrecks havoc in the Carolinas for days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018091006&fh=6

[ronjon]

06z HWRF-P into Myrtle Beach SC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=06L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018091006&fh=162

[tolakram]

Saved 6Z FV3-GFS runs

[Aric Dunn]

the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.

[txwatcher91]

the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.

This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.

[Aric Dunn]

the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.

This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.

yeah, I would say the majority if not all the data should make it into the 12z.

[txwatcher91]

the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.

This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.

yeah, I would say the majority if not all the data should make it into the 12z.

Hopefully we can get a better consensus from the Euro, UK and GFS/FV3 then on the 12z runs.

[Vdogg]

the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.

This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.

North or South that rain and wind are coming Inland. None of these solutions are out to sea. All we're trying to nail down now is who gets the worst of this storm.

[ronjon]

the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.

This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.

I think northern SC/NC are unfortunately going to get hammered by a major hurricane. Think there's very little suspense to the track forecast at this point, probably 50 miles either side of the NHC landfall. The storm motion will continue to be W-NW or NW for 24 hrs after landfall so if I lived in the path of Florence I'd definitely make sure I had adequate shelter, food, water, and supplies to manage perhaps weeks without power. I feel for you posters in the Carolina's. It sux having a major hurricane bearing down on you. I went through this with Irma last year and Cat 1 Hermine in 2016.

[setxweathergal64]

Does anyone know offhand what the predicted rainfall graph was 5 days out for Harvey last year?

This isn't a graph, but this was posted 3 days before landfall. We had over 60" of rain, flooding everyone and everything for many miles in every direction from my house. I do not trust rainfall predictions. You never know.

https://imgur.com/a/haclj3r

I live about 10 miles from southerngale! I posted a graphic on Facebook kind of jokingly that I found somewhere on the 23rd of August last year! It was showing 42 inches of rain predicted for my area! And that's probably what we got! It was the GFS model. I wish I knew how to post a picture!

[BobHarlem]

Early model runs, more or less the same. TVCN did shift very slightly left.

[OiOya]

0z Euro closeup

Even the Euro is in on our bad "Florence hitting Florence" jokes.
Edit:

I wish I knew how to post a picture!

Place the picture's url in the following code like so:

Code: Select all

[img]http://your-img-here.com/pic.jpg[/img]

[Blinhart]

Early model runs, more or less the same. TVCN did shift very slightly left.

So ECMWF has her going inland and then turning South and then East, interesting.

[Ken711]

Early model runs, more or less the same. TVCN did shift very slightly left.

I thought the TVCN shifted to the right of the NHC track?

[Ken711]

Early model runs, more or less the same. TVCN did shift very slightly left.

So ECMWF has her going inland and then turning South and then East, interesting.

Euro run doesn't make sense that far south and inland compared to the other models.