p1nheadlarry wrote:GCANE wrote:COAMPS is still the best performing model over the last 24 hrs with 0 positional error.
Luckily, it is forecast some weakening before landfall with a dramatic slow down in forward speed
FSU product, no?
Nah, US Navy.
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p1nheadlarry wrote:GCANE wrote:COAMPS is still the best performing model over the last 24 hrs with 0 positional error.
Luckily, it is forecast some weakening before landfall with a dramatic slow down in forward speed
FSU product, no?
Aric Dunn wrote:the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.
txwatcher91 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.
This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.
Aric Dunn wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.
This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.
yeah, I would say the majority if not all the data should make it into the 12z.
txwatcher91 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.
This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.
txwatcher91 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:the upper air mission is concluding soon and this set of data is key. the ridging has built in ( but not fully) and should help nail down the first 48 hours a little better.
This new data should all be reflected in the 12z runs correct? It's interesting how the GFS and HMON trended north some while the Euro and HWRF adjusted south and then the UK just said "well let's go north too just to throw everyone off." Going to be tough to nail down which camp is correct and the track will be huge for whether the bulk of the rain/wind stays offshore or comes inland.
southerngale wrote:meriland29 wrote:Does anyone know offhand what the predicted rainfall graph was 5 days out for Harvey last year?
This isn't a graph, but this was posted 3 days before landfall. We had over 60" of rain, flooding everyone and everything for many miles in every direction from my house. I do not trust rainfall predictions. You never know.
https://imgur.com/a/haclj3r
tolakram wrote:0z Euro closeup
setxweathergal64 wrote: I wish I knew how to post a picture!
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[img]http://your-img-here.com/pic.jpg[/img]
BobHarlem wrote:Early model runs, more or less the same. TVCN did shift very slightly left.
BobHarlem wrote:Early model runs, more or less the same. TVCN did shift very slightly left.
Blinhart wrote:BobHarlem wrote:Early model runs, more or less the same. TVCN did shift very slightly left.
So ECMWF has her going inland and then turning South and then East, interesting.
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