ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[txwatcher91]

12z GFS is east. Likely about to trend OTS at 12z. That will make NHC tear their hair out.

Probably going to stall offshore for another 48 hours. Now does the Euro trend back east to Wilmington at 12z...have to see, but I think so.

GFS is probably breaking the ridging down too quickly like it has a bias of doing and the Euro is probably a bit too strong with it. This is why the NHC uses the TVCN and model corrected bias adjustments in their forecast. Their current track would be a solid middle ground solution and is very reasonable at this time.

[Ken711]

12z GFS is east. Likely about to trend OTS at 12z. That will make NHC tear their hair out.

NHC probably will toss GFS into trash

Why?

[Bocadude85]

I feel like the GFS is giving people false hope. And these model runs are leaving me very confused. The 12z GFS model at a similar latitude is about 340 miles away from the Euro at the same latitude. And what is even weirder (to me, not a pro!) is that the GFS is at that same latitude forecast hour 66 (or I guess 78 by adjusting for when the Euro ran) while the Euro is at 96. I have no idea what is going on here. I know people say GFS has a poleward bias, but this just seems crazy.

I’m not sure the GFS has a good grasp on things, it also has Isaac as a strengthening hurricane heading for the DR when the 6z showed a tropical depression heading due west.

[hurricaneCW]

12z GFS is east. Likely about to trend OTS at 12z. That will make NHC tear their hair out.

NHC probably will toss GFS into trash

Why?

Because it's an outlier and the intensification bias is clearly playing a negative effect. There's no way this will be a 900-905mb storm spinning just offshore NC.

[cjrciadt]

Moving SW at 900mb... What? @132

[jlauderdal]

Because the gfs has been to far right, continues to be to the right and has a right hand bias...they wont trash it but they aren't going to recurve it until there is additional support

12z GFS is east. Likely about to trend OTS at 12z. That will make NHC tear their hair out.

NHC probably will toss GFS into trash

Why?

[mcheer23]

UKMET basically the same. Bit more south

[Hurricaneman]

NHC probably will toss GFS into trash

Why?

Because it's an outlier and the intensification bias is clearly playing a negative effect. There's no way this will be a 900-905mb storm spinning just offshore NC.

Maybe it will be that pressure at some point but not where the GFS has it

[hohnywx]

And the GFS finally landfalls at 156 hours into the OBX...a good reason to let a run play out before making assumptions.

[smithtim]

Due to recon data nhc just updated to cat 4 @130mph

Wasn't forecasted to get that strong for another 24hrs... not sure how that'll effect next model runs, but with that strength and moving over the current near perfect condition to intensify I wouldn't be surprised to see much stronger perhaps even like some of the windsppeds we saw in a few storms last year???


EDIT: corrected typo winds are 130 not 140

[supercane4867]

GFS has finally decided to go sub-900mb. It has Flo looping offshore then back into OBX

[hohnywx]

Due to recon data nhc just updated to cat 4 @140mph

Wasn't forecasted to get that strong for another 24hrs... not sure how that'll effect next model runs, but with that strength and moving over the current near perfect condition to intensify I wouldn't be surprised to see much stronger perhaps even like some of the windsppeds we saw in a few storms last year???

Winds are not 140...they are 130 MPH.

[plasticup]

Remarkably tight consensus.

[plasticup]

Given that she is already Cat 4, I wonder whether the next run of intensity models will predict Cat 5. That is a rare thing to see.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Could the storm moving west affect the track?

[MississippiWx]

The GFS is likely wrong here. Don’t believe this portion of the basin can support a sub-910mb hurricane. When the GFS was keeping this offshore several runs ago, it had this same hypercane scenario.

[GCANE]

06Z COAMPS
Back to Cat 4 at Landfall.
I suspect track will shift south based on the due-west course Flo is on now.

[tarheelprogrammer]

What if the two models were cmc and navgem taking it offshore and gfs to the south?

I meant to say two major models if GFS and ECMWF were south would you trust that over UKMET OTS? The fact other models went toward the GFS gives hope it may stay offshore for most of the event.

What other model has trended towards the GFS?

Almost every model has. The GFS has lead the way showing a more north landfall and consensus is shifting north. ECMWF and HWRF are south. Hope it trends just enough to spare the state or most of it.

[JPmia]

I realize that those in the path of this beast want to be optimistic and highlight only models that show offshore or away from their area, but it is really not the point of this thread. My understanding is that we are here to discuss what the model is showing, not what we hope it shows. Let's just stick to the facts here and leave the hoping, wishing, and other unscientific points to other threads devoted to Florence.

[hurricaneCW]

Florence is more likely to take a northerly track due to how strong it. Latest IR loop even showed a nice jump north.

I'd be shocked if the Euro didn't trend further north.