ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Ken711
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3281 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:30 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:The Euro initialized this about 30mb weaker than it currently is, makes me think it's still too far west.

Gun to my head I would go with a track in between the Euro and Gfs.


Morehead City.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3282 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:30 pm

12z EC landfall point at Cape Fear

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3283 Postby jdjaguar » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:31 pm

Ken711 wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:The Euro initialized this about 30mb weaker than it currently is, makes me think it's still too far west.

Gun to my head I would go with a track in between the Euro and Gfs.


Morehead City.


agree

Atlantic Beach/Morehead City/Ocracoke
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3284 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:35 pm

To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3285 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:36 pm

Here are the 5 simultaneous named storms on the EC run

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3286 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:42 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Euro shifted north some and no longer bends this west once inland. Instead it seems to take the center up to the Raleigh area. See below link.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png


Trending toward the GFS.


No not really - the ECM has been about as consistent as it can be the last 5-6 runs. Rides the SC-NC line just to the north of the border. Very similar to 12z HWRF.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=06L&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2018091012&fh=102
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3287 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:46 pm

Not sure how believable the 12z HWRF run is but Flo is still 996 mb by the time it reaches Asheville NC after 36 hours inland - if that verified, a world of hurt for NC both east, central, and west.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3288 Postby Vdogg » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:48 pm

All the models seem to be centering on between Obx and Wilmington. With Euro now coming ever so slightly north I wouldn't be surprised to see a slight northern adjustment to the NHC track. The ensembles will be telling.
Last edited by Vdogg on Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3289 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:55 pm

12Z Euro landfall

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3290 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:19 pm

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1039231803729620992


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3291 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:26 pm

EPS Ensembles

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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3292 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:29 pm

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1039232706704486400


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3293 Postby tpinnola » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:35 pm

I feel like the latest runs are inching north... am i wrong? Even the Euro had a few ensemble members north and east on the 12z run. Maybe I'm grasping at straws here, idk..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3294 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:39 pm

Half of the 12z EC ensembles are still going to SC
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3295 Postby Vdogg » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:56 pm

Are the GFS ensembles out yet?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3296 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:56 pm

Wow. The Euro ensembles keep South Carolina very much in play here.
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syfr
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Rainfall total models?

#3297 Postby syfr » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:03 pm

Can someone point me to the models indicating total rainfall predictions out of Flo?

Thank you
John
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3298 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:10 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX


What is MHX? I'm guessing its not Manihiki Island Airport code (MHX)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3299 Postby Raebie » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:12 pm

Moorehead City.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3300 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:18 pm

How good is the NAM with ridge placements? It is trending weaker with the ridge and further east with Florence. Could it be on to something and trending toward GFS?
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