#2044 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:03 pm
PavelGaborik10 wrote:meriland29 wrote:PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Wouldn't be great timing. If it was the beginning of an EWRC, it'd likely just be completing right about as she enters even more favorable conditions.
I have heard conflicting things about that...that either it would enhance her, or keep her from ever regaining the same momentum. Any thoughts?
At this stage an EWRC would likely result in a temporary slight decrease in Maximum wind speed, but an increase in the Storms windfield. Being this far out it would almost surely complete it's EWRC, and re-gain this strength and then some, as even an even larger storm.
EWRC's aren't predictable, but if I had to guess we should see two before it makes landfall. The best case for NC would for it to begin an EWRC shortly before landfall that it's unable to complete, resulting in a slightly weaker storm. I think that along with Dry air is the best shot NC has of this thing coming ashore as anything less than a low-end cat 4. Just my .2
That's what happened with Maria. It was almost done with one of its EWRCs when it came ashore. It still was a high end cat 4 that wrecked havoc on PR. I agree with you on the fact that the best way for this thing to be taken down a notch is with dry air, as shear does not seem like it will be too much of a problem.
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