ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2041 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:01 pm

meriland29 wrote:How long does a ERC usually take to complete on avg?


It depends on the environment, size of eye, shear, etc. but typically in favorable conditions 6-18 hours is what I've noticed. When shear or dry air interfere it can take much longer.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2042 Postby jdjaguar » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:01 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Florence looks great today. Told my folks in Wilmington they should consider evacuating but they'll just wait and see what local authorities recommend.


both you and your folks threatened by hurricanes at the same time... that is pretty crazy.


That has happened to me many times. (Mom lives in Vero Beach)

The stress level is astronomical when both areas are threatened.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2043 Postby FLeastcoast » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:03 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Florence looks great today. Told my folks in Wilmington they should consider evacuating but they'll just wait and see what local authorities recommend.


both you and your folks threatened by hurricanes at the same time... that is pretty crazy.
That situation stinks. I was in that spot last year with Irma. Me in N FL and folks in S FL and adult children in SW FL. It was supremely stressful. We all made it through it tho.. I'll be praying and sending best wishes for the same safe outcome for you and your family!

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2044 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:03 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
meriland29 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Wouldn't be great timing. If it was the beginning of an EWRC, it'd likely just be completing right about as she enters even more favorable conditions.




I have heard conflicting things about that...that either it would enhance her, or keep her from ever regaining the same momentum. Any thoughts?


At this stage an EWRC would likely result in a temporary slight decrease in Maximum wind speed, but an increase in the Storms windfield. Being this far out it would almost surely complete it's EWRC, and re-gain this strength and then some, as even an even larger storm.

EWRC's aren't predictable, but if I had to guess we should see two before it makes landfall. The best case for NC would for it to begin an EWRC shortly before landfall that it's unable to complete, resulting in a slightly weaker storm. I think that along with Dry air is the best shot NC has of this thing coming ashore as anything less than a low-end cat 4. Just my .2

That's what happened with Maria. It was almost done with one of its EWRCs when it came ashore. It still was a high end cat 4 that wrecked havoc on PR. I agree with you on the fact that the best way for this thing to be taken down a notch is with dry air, as shear does not seem like it will be too much of a problem.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2045 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:05 pm

meriland29 wrote:How long does a ERC usually take to complete on avg?


They are all different...some Typhoons this season seem to have one every 12 hours with large eyes resulting. Some never have one, but I'd say with a 10 mile eye, if it gets much smaller one will begin to be seen on microwave fairly soon
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2046 Postby WeatherNewbie » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:06 pm

jdjaguar wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Florence looks great today. Told my folks in Wilmington they should consider evacuating but they'll just wait and see what local authorities recommend.


both you and your folks threatened by hurricanes at the same time... that is pretty crazy.


That has happened to me many times. (Mom lives in Vero Beach)

The stress level is astronomical when both areas are threatened.


yeah, just seemed particularly crazy to me since one is in hawaii and the others are on the atlantic seaboard. won't see that too often.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2047 Postby FLeastcoast » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:08 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
jdjaguar wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:
both you and your folks threatened by hurricanes at the same time... that is pretty crazy.


That has happened to me many times. (Mom lives in Vero Beach)

The stress level is astronomical when both areas are threatened.


yeah, just seemed particularly crazy to me since one is in hawaii and the others are on the atlantic seaboard. won't see that too often.
Oh wow... you are right.. ..that is pretty rare!

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2048 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:08 pm

SMFR 125 knots in the clear
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2049 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:08 pm

Recon found windspeed is up to 125kt this pass
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2050 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:12 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2051 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:14 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Recon found windspeed is up to 125kt this pass

wow close to 145mph, still strengthening...If an erc is indeed beginning...doesns't seem to be affecting her intensification process as of yet.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2052 Postby GTStorm » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:14 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2053 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:14 pm

GCANE wrote:SMFR 125 knots in the clear

Inching closer to the magical 137 kt threshold
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2054 Postby aperson » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:18 pm

I don't see any evidence of double wind maxima in the SW quad on this recon pass. Is there any reason to believe an ERC is occurring other than this being around the time one usually shows up?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2055 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:20 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
jdjaguar wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:
both you and your folks threatened by hurricanes at the same time... that is pretty crazy.


That has happened to me many times. (Mom lives in Vero Beach)

The stress level is astronomical when both areas are threatened.


yeah, just seemed particularly crazy to me since one is in hawaii and the others are on the atlantic seaboard. won't see that too often.


Yeah it's pretty nuts. What are the odds. Thankfully they're stocked up on supplies. The homes in NC are 10x better than the ones in Hawaii. Not too worried about wind impacts, just worried about the rain and the huge risk of flooding.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2056 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:20 pm

aperson wrote:I don't see any evidence of double wind maxima in the SW quad on this recon pass. Is there any reason to believe an ERC is occurring other than this being around the time one usually shows up?

Likely no EWRC at the moment. We should see intensity leveling off before an EWRC, but in fact it's still stregnthening
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2057 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:21 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
aperson wrote:I don't see any evidence of double wind maxima in the SW quad on this recon pass. Is there any reason to believe an ERC is occurring other than this being around the time one usually shows up?

Likely no EWRC at the moment. We should see intensity leveling off before an EWRC, but in fact it's still stregnthening


Didn't Maria last year reach it's peak intensity during an EWRC? I know it was still strengthening when it started.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2058 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:22 pm

Image

Appears to be back on a western track at least for now
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2059 Postby michelinj » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:23 pm

aperson wrote:I don't see any evidence of double wind maxima in the SW quad on this recon pass. Is there any reason to believe an ERC is occurring other than this being around the time one usually shows up?


I believe someone posted a microwave pass a few pages back which has some signals on.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2060 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:23 pm

ugh, intensity verification is still very dicey this far out.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039246908420698113


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